Newmarket Guineas

30 April 2024 Peter Webb Comments Off

Betfair trading the Newmarket Guineas

This weekend sees the first big trading market of the flat turf season, the Newmarket Guineas.

The interest in the first ‘Classic’ of the season is high, and it should be a big betting market and that usually translates into a good trading market.

I’ve always enjoyed the Guineas meeting and have had some fun and game over the years. It’s the first classic of the flat turf season for the horse racing markets and an opportunity to get some big race practice ahead of the other big races out there.

Newmarket Guineas Turnover

The amount of money that gets traded at the big meetings is vast. The level of interest in the betting market tends to drive the trading market. The 2000 Guineas has averaged around £3.2m since I started trading it, and the 1000 Guineas about £2.1m.

Volumes seem erratic, and even in 2011, when Frankel was an incredibly short 1.59 to win, the 2000 Guineas only managed £3.5m. In hindsight, Frankel was a bargain at those prices!

From a Betfair trading perspective, it’s big. But not as massive as some of the other meetings, but worth a fair amount of effort.

The 1000 Guineas is on Sunday, and as with most Sundays, racing will come in much lower. Historically it has matched around 60% of the big race but is still worth a shot. There shouldn’t be much price movement on the big race itself.

Guineas - Frankel Chart

Betfair trading outlook

As a full-time trader and market veteran, I have underperformed on the Guineas for a few years.

I still haven’t beaten my total from 2010 when I just caught market right, and I walked away with a decent result from the race and for the entire day. Something I haven’t repeated since, but I usually have a ‘decent’ day each year.

But back to this year and we find a very competitive race. That will probably result in a slightly lower turnover than average, but it will feel a bit more like a Cheltenham or Derby so that should suit me. I’ll be using much larger stakes to take advantage of that, but as always, you have to treat each market as you see it, not how you predict it!

My views on the trading conditions haven’t varied that much over the years, so I’ve added a previous video which you can view, so watch that if you want a narrated view on the market.

Best of luck, with whatever you are doing.

2010 - 2000 Guineas Tradiing P&L

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