I have found a profitable betting system!
I have recently used a long-term profitable betting system it to place bets of over a million pounds on various sports.
This appears to go against the grain of what most people think about sports betting. It is common to hear that once you place that big bet you’ll be flagged up straight away, closed down, restricted, limited bound – nothing that will make you profitable.
However, I’m still here; I am not banned!
That is because of the way that I do it…
The betting industry has a massive image problem.
That problem comes around because it’s an industry funded by losses, typically, your losses.
If you place a bet, the odds you tend to get are not representative of the true odds of something happening. The difference between the two is the money the bookmaker, the sportsbook or the casino will make. Effectively the whole industry is underwritten by losses, and that’s why it has such a bad reputation.
Even then, the reputation gets much worse because if you do somehow find a winning betting system, then you immediately encounter another problem. You will be restricted or banned. That is the common narrative.
So why do we see so many stories and articles about people being banned?
Well, the fact is that all media, mainstream and social media, feeds off of this sense of injustice and fear. Sensationalisation is just a fact of the way that the world works. All these stories are trying to do is get you to engage in some way. That’s how they make their money!
They’re not there to inform you; they’re there to grab your attention.
The betting industry does actually want you to win!
Every bet you place will have a theoretical edge built in. In the short term, sometimes you’ll win, and sometimes you’ll lose. However, that theoretical edge is always there; the longer you play, the more chance you have of going bust.
That’s the way that the industry works. It’s not an intellectual challenge between you and the bookmaker or a casino, it’s a transaction, they are an entertainment business.
The best way to understand how those theoretical edges works is to go into a casino and look at a roulette table.
The theoretical edge – Casino’s
My introduction to the betting industry came about because of a book called ‘beat the dealer’ by Ed Thorp. If you’re not familiar with this book, basically it teaches you how to win at a casino when you’re playing blackjack and how to overcome that house edge.
Fundamentally speaking, you would play a basic strategy and card account. He would know if you use this very simple system if the remaining deck was in your favour or against you. He would then raise and lower the stakes. This gave him a positive expectancy that allowed him to overcome the casino’s house edge.
The problem is if you overcome a house edge, then you could potentially bankrupt the casino They don’t want you to do that! Which is what happened to Ed Thorp.
If they think you’re up to something a bit unusual, they will necessarily restrict you in some way or ban you.
Nowadays, when you walk into a casino, they’ve actually got facial recognition technology that can identify if you’ve visited other casinos or if you’re identified as a specific type of player.
It’s pretty much the same when you look at the sports betting industry. They profile players, they identify players that they don’t want and if you’re bending the rules slightly or finding a way around that house age, then ultimately you could bankrupt them.
If you’re a conventional player and you lose money over a long period, that’s not really a problem. However, they’ve got a massive problem if you could bankrupt them.
However, I have been betting for an extended period, I do have an edge, and I am not restricted. So let’s explore why that’s the case.
The house edge can be overcome when sports betting
Overcoming the house edge when sports betting is all about finding value, and that’s easier if the book is overbroke or near to it. In an overbroke book you can buy 100% chance of something happening for less than 100%
What am I talking about? What are these percentages that you’ve got here? Well, it’s perfectly possible to convert odds into a percentage and then represent that as a percentage chance of that particular event occurring. If you add all of those up, you will get a number somewhere above 100%. And that basically tells you how big the house’s edge is.
Where can you find this information? You can’t they will not publish it! Well there is one place where you can bet where that is actually published and that is a betting exchange!
The whole market is created on a betting exchange by people betting for or against individual events. It is actually an intellectual challenge between one person on one side of the book and the person on the other.
If I’m better than you, I will make money and if you are better than me, you will make money.
The way that the Exchange works is they charge you a commission on winning bets. So there is no house edge to defend, they don’t need to restrict or limit you. You can offer bets to the market, and you can offer as much money or take as much money as you wish, it is purely a battle of skill.
So what has actually happened over a long period of time, is the amount of money that gets lost to the other side of the book is whittled down until it’s very, very close to 100%.
As a consequence, if you’re a little bit better than chance at being able to predict something, pick off a decent position within the market, or do anything that’s better than random, then you’ve got a fair chance of winning in the longer term.
Now you do have to pay a commission, so if you bet into a betting exchange completely random, you’re more or less breaking even minus that commission. That is the tiny house edge that you have to overcome to be profitable in the longer term.
But better than that, even if you win in the longer term, there’s absolutely no reason to restrict or ban you.
You could also bet a million!
So long-term profitable sports betting is perfectly possible, but you MUST use a betting exchange.
If you use a traditional sports book, bookmaker or casino, their house edge is so big that they have to protect it so they don’t go bankrupt. This means they will restrict and limit you in many ways to stop you from doing that.
However, on a betting exchange, you do not have that problem, you can actually put large amounts of money through, and there are no restrictions. Better than that, because they don’t have that typical house edge, the amount of money you lose to the other side of the book is tiny.
So that’s all you need to do to overcome and become profitable. Then it’s just a question of how big can you stake?
One of my key strategies is to bet in a lot of markets. Because they are settled soon after the event is decided this allows me to use a small stake and still achieve huge numbers. If I put £1000 through 1000 sports, that’s a million in bets.
That’s more or less what I did for this example. But this wasn’t over the lifetime of my account this was just in one week. It’s nowhere near my biggest week this year either.
That’s the amazing potential of a betting exchange.
Why do we not hear about this?
Fundamentally, the industry is funded from front to back by bookmakers, sportsbooks and casinos.
They need a significant fat margin to generate advertising money which they can then give to all of these interested parties and therefore, they don’t want people telling you exactly what to do and how to do it. It just doesn’t fit the narrative, and it doesn’t fit their business model.
Since betting exchanges were born, if you have the skill, the sky is the limit. You won’t be banned or restricted from winning.
But that doesn’t grab people’s attention, and ultimately, all the people complaining about bookies are probably directly or indirectly funded by them. So there isn’t an incentive to talk about much else. Plus, fighting for some sort of ‘injustice’ is great publicity.
People need to stop moaning about bookmakers and sportsbooks, they are not going to change. They are not offering an intellectual challenge for you, they are an entertainment business. You losing is part of that business model.
The fact is, if you are serious, have an edge, and want to bet a lot of money, there is a way to do it. I know because I have been doing that for twenty years now, and doing as much as possible.
It’s probably the best opportunity you have ever had to make money betting, so you should be taking it.