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Betfair trading – The Perfect Golf Trade!

I want to tell you a story about the perfect golf

Curiously, the first ever bet I placed on the Betfair exchange, was on Golf. Pretty much since that day Betfair trading Golf markets has been part of the mix of markets I’m active on.

Golf markets on Betfair are characterised by big fields and on the winner market, big markets. A lot of golf betting systems rely on picking individuals who stand to win the coveted green jacket at Augusta. In traditional betting markets picking somebody to finish in the top ten is also popular. But, of course, you have many Betfair trading strategies that you can deploy on a Golf tournament.

Now and again you can get a ‘perfect trade’ and this happened fairly recently. Let’s learn how this happened, so if it happens again you can hopefully catch it!

So you must have seen me discuss the US Masters many times across all my platforms. Whether it is these blog posts or my YouTube videos. The reason that I love this particular tournament is a simple reason: it’s played on the same course year after year.

This gives you a really good idea of how the course is likely to play, you know where those easy holes are and you know where the hard holes are. That obviously brings you huge advantages when trading, but it’s important to note that even though the holes stay the same, they can bring those advantages and challenge depending on the day.

Know when it happens, not just where it happens

With a four day tournament, the first two days are played in a sort of in random order and then the field is cut. They then change the playing order of the players on days three and four, over the weekend, because they want the tournament to end so that the winner is coming up the fairway very close to the end of the tournament.

This brings up opportunities on days one and two. Imagine there’s an early leader in the clubhouse with another good player coming round to an easier part making it likely that they will pick up shots. Then of course, if they pick up those shots, the price on the leader in the clubhouse is going to drift and vice versa. So this is one way to trade it.

However, when you’re at the weekend at a golf tournament, then all of the players are going out in reverse order. The worst players get out early in the morning, finishing the course early on. While, the best players finish last and come up to the 18th to collect their prize.

How did this perfect trade come about?

Before I explain, the first thing to note on all of these, is the gap between the leader and the peopel chasing, a fair indicator of who’s likely to be in contention.

If we look at the stats, 90% of winners are within five shots of the leader at Augusta. We can also see a similar number on day two, but obviously it compacts a little bit. Then when you get to day three, you’re really looking at sort of three or four shots from the lead and it gives you the opportunity to chase down and win the tournament.

Obviously, the higher up you are then that the better. So when there was no deficit, in other words, you were on the leader, about 55% of players go and win it on the last day when they are the leader. About 14% are within a shot of the leader and then it’s about 10% for two and three shots.

So the situation we had in Augusta in 2016 was that Danny Willett was three shots behind the leader which was Jordan Spieth. Spieth had a shot at winning it if he didn’t make too many mistakes, but as with all things, it’s actually quite difficult to be consistent, as any golfer will tell you.

As a consequence, you’re always in with a shot of winning if there’s a problem with whoever’s in the lead. Let’s say they make a couple of bad shots or they send the ball into the water. Suddenly there’s a whole bunch of people in contention!

If we look back to the tournament you can see that Danny Willett was out before Jordan Spieth. Spieth was basically in control of everything in terms of seeing all of the people going in front of him. He knew what he had to do in order to stay in contention for the green jacket at the end of the tournament along with a healthy $1.8 million dollars!

So the interesting thing about Willett is that he was playing very consistently all the way through, picking up shots here and there. By picking up the odd birdie throughout the tournament he actually ended up on the final day completing a round at five under, which is a pretty good round at Augusta.

His consistency meant he didn’t drop a shot at a single hole, was just playing percentage golf and doing what he could to put himself into contention.

On the other hand, Jordan Spieth was three shots in front where he could probably win the tournament with that. However he realised that he would require one or two shots extra to be able to definitively clinch the championship.

So Willett’s was off in front and Spieth was following. As Willett started to climb up the leaderboard there were other players like Lee Westwood who were creeping up to the top of the leaderboard as well.

This put a little bit of pressure on Jordan Spieth, but Spieth is a good player. In fact, as we came to the turn (‘the turn’ for non golfers is when you reach nine holes, you basically go out in nine and then back in nine, so they call that the turn) he picks up a shot on the second. This is not unusual at Augusta, because that is one of the easier holes where you would expect to pick up a shot.

The second hole at Augusta

He then he dropped on the fifth, but as he reached the six, he went, birdie, birdie, birdie, birdie..

He got four birdies in a row, which was phenomenal! So he went through the turn with a birdie on the ninth, but at that particular point the ninth hole is the last hole that could be considered easy to reach a par.

When you get into the 10th, 11th and 12th, those are much harder holes, the hardest ones in the course. In fact, if you look at holes four to six, they’re also quite hard as well so he did pretty well to get through that and pick up a shot over those four.

After all we’re only human, mistakes happen…

Then he gets to the famous Amen corner at Augusta. If you know how the course plays, this corner is generally considered to be one of the harder parts of the course, arriving there five under. He then tees up his shot to then mess it all up by dropping a shot on the 11th.

Amen corner at Augusta

When he turns up at the 12th, he realises that Willett has gone through and is plain sailing. Spieth is still five under for the entire tournament, but people are getting a little bit closer to him.

Anybody who watches the Masters as a golfer knows what the 12th is like. It’s a par three and you have to tee off over a bit of water to land on a green that’s incredibly long and thin. If you’re short, you end up in the water, if you’re long you end up in a bunker.

So it’s a bit of a nightmare!

Unfortunately, Spieth teed off and sent his ball into the water. Immediately you’ve got a serious problem there because you’re going to have to place your ball and and play three off the tee.

So he did that and he was going to have to take a bogey or perhaps a double bogey. But on his second shot, he got underneath it and fell short ending up in the water again to gasps from the surrounding crowds.

By this particular point, all of a sudden he’s in real trouble and he needs to play the next shot reasonably well. So he plays the next shot and sends it long and into the bunker!

Now, prior to playing hole twelve, his price has basically moved to 1.09 and plenty of money matched at 1.10. After, it was somewhat higher!

How to trade this scenario?

A piece of advice that I often give, especially where you’ve got a player in front that has already completed those holes successfully. Is that if you have got a player coming behind him that has to go through that those difficult holes, is that sometimes it is worth a little lay on those guys. This is based on the idea that if they drop a shot then odds are going to spike up as the other player comes into play for a higher position in the tournament.

So naturally, with Spieth at 1.09, he’s five-under and still three shots in front of everybody else with six holes to play, that price was fairly reasonable for him at that particular point. The anticipation with this trade is that maybe he would bogey or perhaps double bogey hole which would send his price out a little bit.

However, in fact, he ended up carding a seven on the twelfth, which was a complete disaster because he went from five under to one over. Suddenly Willett, a few holes ahead, became the tournament leader!

Now realising this, you can could anticipate that if Danny Willett could just hold it together to win then Spieth would have to perform a miracle to change that.

Especially a tough venture even with the potential to drop a shot at the last three holes at Augusta, which he did do, dropping a shot on the seventeenth. It was a bit of a task for Speith to be able to turn things around in those final few holes.

Framing the trading opportunity

Firstly the set up was good…

The price on Spieth was very low and the opportunity to lay him came around to that cluster of holes where potentially he had the opportunity to drop a shot and if he would have dropped, you would have got a little bit of a gain out of that.

But in fact, on this particular occasion, everything lined up perfectly and he completely messed up, which is not unknown at Augusta. There have been these occasions before, especially when Nick Faldo won at Augusta, he was the benefactor of that sort of thing and we’ve seen this happen before throughout the years.

Spieth’s price started shooting out from 1.09 because he made such an unbelievable hash of it!

For anybody that was laying Spieth at 1.09, 1.10 or around that area, it just became a straight lay because the price moved so far that. even with hedging, you would have got the majority of your profit anyway.

Factors at play…

We had the order of the card and seeing Willett go through, as well being only three from the lead at any one particular point or another meant it only needed a little mistake from Spieth while playing through those harder holes to be able to bring that trade around.

If you look at the set up of it, although it is easy to look at things retrospectively, it was pretty much the perfect setup.

If you’re looking at holes 4 to 8 and then again, at holes 10 to 12, then 16 to 18. These are holes where traditionally players have drop shots repeatedly and there are areas in between those where they do or they are more likely to gain shots.

It’s around these periods that you want to get active and involved in the market. With players in front of him having already gone through that, it was a good opportunity to lay Spieth at very, very low odds.

What reveals itself from this? The perfect golf trade!

That’s, simply put, the almost the perfect trade that you could possibly do in golf. If you attempt to do this at other other times, you have to factor in what’s happening elsewhere on the golf course and who’s doing what and when.

But on this particular occasion, as he came around to the harder part of the course, getting in a low lay on Spieth was quite clearly an option.

Why?

Because there wouldn’t have had many downsides and if he did make a mistake, you would have huge upside. That is, in fact, what happened, much to the delight of Danny Willett, who became the first British player to win at Augusta for some time.

This example is a great way of illustrating this sort of activity that seems to only happen in a golf tournament. Using the knowledge we have learnt from this 2016 example allows us to see how we can use our knowledge of the course and how players react to certain holes to our advantage.

Golf tournaments can produce some wonderful opportunities and finger crossed that we see some more this year!

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Change the VPS Remote Desktop (RDP) port

It’s can be recommended to change windows remote desktop default port for added security or to change the entry port on your server to avoid a routing issue. You can change the default port with a few easy steps. First, you’ll define this port in a firewall rule, then you will change the RDP port.

You can choose to use any port that is not in use or reserved, there is a wiki list of all the ports that are officially or unofficially used. So it’s best to choose something that is not on that list. If you wish, contact our support team for a recommendation.

This process is considered an ‘advanced’ process as you need to modify the registry. If you fail to perform both actions correctly you will be locked out of your VPS and the only option is to completely reimage the server.

Therefore, we suggest you back up all important information before you attempt this. If you take care however you shouldn’t have a problem updating your port number.

Here are step by step instructions on how to modify your RDP port.

Step 1 – Change the Firewall to allow your new port

First you need to find the firewall. The best way to do this is to click on Windows icon and type in ‘Firewall’. You will see ‘Windows Firewall with Advanced Security’ appear.

  1. Open Firewall (Windows Defender Firewall with Advanced Security)
  2. From the left sidebar click on Inbound Rules
  3. From the right sidebar click on New Rule
  4. Select Port and click Next
  5. Select TCP and type the port number in Specific local port and click Next until you reach the step where you asked to enter a rule name, give the rule a name and Click Finish. (Repeat from #7 to #11 for UDP)

Step 2 – Change RDP TCP port on Windows Server

  1. Open registry editor app by searching for regedit in windows search or use RUN.
  2. Locate the following from regedit app:
    HKEY_LOCAL_MACHINE\System\CurrentControlSet\Control\Terminal Server\WinStations\RDP-Tcp
  3. look for PortNumber and right-click on it and Modify
  4. Make sure to select Decimal under Base option
  5. Change the port number in the ‘value data’ area to any number you prefer, let’s say 1234 and click OK
  6. Quit the registry editor

Step 3 – Restart the server to make the changes

  1. Double-check that you have entered the correct details for the firewall and that this matches the details in the registry.
  2. When you are sure you have completed all the above steps. Restart the server.
  3. Try to connect to RDP as usual but when you type the IP address, don’t forget to type the custom port number after the IP in this format IP:Port (e.g. 192.168.1.5:1234)
  4. You should now be able to connect through that specific port to your server.
  5. Bobs your uncle!

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Know your predicted profit after a Goal

Succesful Betfair football trading

If you are a Betfair football trader wouldn’t it be great to know what your profit or loss would look like after the next goal? Whatever your Betfair trading strategy, it would obviously help.

This is important as, to trade successfully, you need to ‘frame’ your trade around a specific opportunity and fully understand the pay off. Knowing that one piece of information can help you decide how to manage your trade, know if it’s worthwhile and also where to pitch your exit trade/s at.

With Bet Angel you have the Betfair trading software and options to do exactly that. You can easily display your predicted profit or loss following a goal on your ladder or one-click screen. This profit/loss is shown in real-time and dynamically adjusts and updates as the time of the match progresses as the time decays, allowing you to adapt your strategy as the match progresses based on what’s happening in it.

Scenario – (Laying the Draw and show the Predicted Profit after a Goal)

For this example, I’ll use one of the most popular Betfair football trading strategies, lay the draw. In the image below I’ve already layed the draw pre-KO and can see straight away if the home team scores the opening goal I’ll make around £21.28, if the away team score first I’ll make a little bit more at around £30.19.

As the match gets underway and the time begins to decay the impact of a goal will continually effect the price the draw odds will reform at, as this changes so will your potential profit and this is continually updated for you in real time by the software so you can always be adjusting any exit/greening position accordingly while also being able to evaluate your risk/reward at all times during the match.

By contrast if you were to lay the draw in a match with a strong favourite, you will know you’ll have a good profit if the fav scored but if the under dog scores first this will cause the draw odds to shorten and put you in a losing position. In the image below you can see after laying the draw with a £10 stake, if the home team (the fav) scores first the predicted profit is £6.00, where as if the away team (under dog) scores first the predicted loss is -£10.39.

If you want to look at where the odds will at any point during the match but in the pre match period. It’s worth checking out Soccer Mystic which will give you this information.

How this is Done

To do this involves the use of the ‘+1 Markets’ from the fixture, as detailed in this similar blog which shows how you can displays the predicted odds after a goal on your Ladder or One-Click trading screens.

This works on most football matches where the appropiate markets are available on the betting exchanges. Whether you have a betting strategy or a trading one, it should help in the long term.

Just to give a brief re-cap of whats in that blog, by using the +1 markets these are effectively handicap markets which will show were the prices will reform around if either team were to score 1 more goal, then using Stored Values in Bet Angels advanced automation we can use those odds and look up the corresponding profit (or loss) against that price – and that’s what gets displayed to you.

Going back to the image at the top of this blog showing we’ll make £21.28 if the home team scores and, around £30.19 if the away team scores first if you were to scroll up to those values in the trade profit column on the ladder you’ll see the corresponding odds they relate to therefore you’d place your exit/greening bet around 4.7 if it looked more likely the home team will score first and around 5.4 if it looks like being the away team that will score first.

Displaying the Predicted Profit/Loss on your Ladder

Just as in that previous example all the files needed to display the predicted profits above your ladders have already been created for you to download and import into your Bet Angel. In total there are four files required which can all be downloaded from the following post on the Bet Angel forum

Once you have downloaded the files you would use them as follows.

Display Predicted Profit after a Goal.bls – this is a ladder settings file and needs to be imported into your ladder settings area, this will then display the ladder exactly as you see in the image above (you can of course use the Bet Angel ladder settings editor and edit any part of your ladder layout).


Profit Predictor after a Goal (Home).baf – this is a basic rules file and needs to be applied to the home team +1 markets in Guardian
Profit Predictor after a Goal (Away).baf – identical to the above rule but needs to be applied to the away team +1 markets in Guardian
Display Predicted Profit after a Goal (Match Odds).baf – this final rules file needs to be applied to the match odds market.

In the screenshot below you can see I’ve added the match odds market, the home team +1 and away team +1 for three fixtures and applied the relevant ‘Profit Predictor after Goal’ to the +1 markets and Display Predicted Profit after a Goal to the match odds market.

For example, the first fixture is Schalke 04 Vs Leverkusen
So, the Goal Odds Predictor (A) file is applied to Leverkusen +1 market (because Leverkusen are the away team)
And the Goal Odds Predictor (H) file is applied to Schalke 04 +1 market (because Schalke 04 are the home team)

And that’s all there is to it, when you open the match odds market of that fixture and place a bet on the draw (it can be a back or lay bet) it will continually update to display your predicted P/L should a goal be scored. You can place additional bets at anytime to add to or reduce your position and the predicted P/L will continually update

NB,To provide more accurate results I’ve included a condition that there must be greater that £1000 matched on the +1 market, so if you don’t see any values on your ladder then it will be because this condition has not yet been satisfied.

Trading the Home/Away Teams

With the rules file above you are not just limited to trading on the draw, you can use the same rules files to view your predicted profits (and losses) no matter whether your trading the home team, away team or the draw, all you need to do is make a simple change to the selection each rule is applied to.

This is done on the general tab of each of the rules in Guardian, so if you wanted to see your P/L from trading the home team you’d change the ‘Applies to selection’ 1 on the three rules files.

The post Know your predicted profit after a Goal appeared first on Betfair trading blog | Expert advice from Professional Betfair trade.

Betfair API – Greening / Hedging / Cash out issues

On Friday 19th June, without any prior notification, Betfair introduced some changes and new rules to their API. This had the effect of preventing ALL API software users correctly hedging position on the Betfair betting exchange.

Typically this would have exhibited itself when trying to implement greening. The Betfair exchange wasn’t accepting orders correctly, leaving stray orders in your unmatched bet area. This meant that customers were left with slightly uneven positions in the market which they were trading.

Changes to the API should be announced in advance and that gives us time to implement and test any key changes. On this occasion Betfair changed the API without informing us, so the first we knew about it was when we spotted it ourselves when trying to hedging our own trading postions. Betfair didn’t acknoledge any changes until much later than evening.

Why did this happen?

Betfair felt the integrity of the exchange was threatened by an exploit that existed.

There has been a loophole in the way Betfair round bets for many years and is often exploited by a few users so it’s is something that’s been on their radar for quite some time, obviously though something must of happened during last week to prompt them into doing the sudden unannounced change when they did on Friday.

For example – a 13p @ 1.06 back bet is ‘unfair’ as it ‘ought’ to win 0.78p, but actually – due to the old rounding – wins 1p, which is a 28% uplift in profit.

However having hundreds and thousands of tiny bets like that hitting the exchange from various accounts purposely exploiting this loophole is bad for API stability which effects us all so its not a bad thing Betfair have taken decision to close this exploit once and for all.

What we did

Although no one was aware of this change coming, we spotted something was wrong within hours and moved quickly to release an updated build of Bet Angel later that same evening to our forum to try and reduce the wider impact these new changes were having on customers using stakes below the £2 Betfair minimum, particularly when greening up with small stakes. This enabled Bet Angel users to continue using the software and their trading throughout that weekend.

Once we were able to speak with Betfair and get clear confirmation of what exactly what it was they changed and what the new parameters and calculations now being used were we could then issue another build of this Bet Angel at the start of this week with tighter coding.

Updating Bet Angel

We recommend updating Bet Angel. These updated versions will still allow you to continue to place bets and green up with small stakes still. But due to the new Betfair rounding rules, there may be times when your P/L still ends up uneven by a few pence. So we have also updated the Bet Angel logging to spot when the API rejects these bets due to rounding, this allows users to see clearly if that was indeed the reason their order was rejected or not.

If that does happen you will see an error written to your Bet Angel log which looks like ” While Greening Up Unable to Place Lay Bet Due to Befair’s Rules Regarding Payout/Liability Rounding”

The latest builds of Bet Angel are now;

Bet Angel Profesional V1.52c

Bet Angel Trader V1.4.4c

These can be downloaded from both our forum and main website, once installed you will see one of those build numbers in the bottom right corner of the blue login window or by clicking the ‘about’ tab once logged in.

If you are installing the latest version of Bet Angel to a VPS you may need to follow the specific instructions listed on this blog post.

Note; If you are not using the latest version, you will also see a pop-up message at login prompting you to download and install the latest version.

For full details of the changes made by Betfair on 19th June please see this post from their developer’s forum

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Installing software on your VPS

You may want to, or be required to, install software or updates to the software you have installed on your VPS. If you can’t install software on your VPS it may be that the download is “blocked”.

Because your Windows server / VPS is connected to the internet 24×7, security tends to heavily restrict what software can be installed without your specific permission.

So there are two ways to ensure you are able to install or update your software.

(1) Copy and paste from your local PC to the VPS

Ensure the clipboard is enabled in your client software, ‘client software’ is the software you use on your local computer to connect to the VPS. You should find the clipboard under an options or settings menu if you wish to check.

Download the software you want to install to your local PC. Then copy and paste it to the VPS. You should find that the software is ready to install.

(2) Unblock the software downloaded onto your VPS

If you download the software using a browser directly onto your VPS then you may need to unblock the software.

To unblock the software, download it to the VPS and make a note of where that file is located.

Then right-click on the icon and locate the ‘Unblock’ option on the bottom right of the dialogue box. Click to unblock the software and you should be able to run the application.

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