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Horse racing tips – Win by backing the loser!

When people offer you horse racing tips, they are typically looking to recommend a back bet to you. Perhaps there is a customer offer on a qualifying bet that gives you a good chance of winning or it’s just a plain old tip? But generally speaking, most people back to find a winner. For the bet to win the horse has crossed that line first and been declared a winner. That makes sense.

But we are going flip things on their head and give you a way to win if you back the loser!

Is it really possible to get a solid profit from backing a loser on a race? Well there is a way of achieving this using Bet Angel. Today we have a quick blog post explaining a relatively easy way of winning with the loser using the dutching tool and the margin maker.

Guide to losers success!

Firstly I’m on Bet Angel’s Dutching screen and I have placed a trade on this Brighton race. To place this trade I have set my staking method ‘back with a stake’ to £100, my margin to 10% and I am using the margin maker (also see below).

I have now put my bet in and it seems the price on this one hasn’t been matched because it’s odds that aren’t available or we’re hoping to get matched in play. So I’m going to keep that over to the in-play period and we’ll see what happens from here.

As we can see, the book percentage is 90% and a great thing is the margin maker which allows you to price a book effectively with a set amount of money that you wish to make. So on this occasion, we can make 10%. By having a metric such as 10%, it allows us to manage the risk very effectively because at 10% we want to win 9 out of 10 races.

You can see there that the horse didn’t get off to great start and we’ve been matched immediately. When you look at any particular race there will be certain characteristics within the race. Whether it’s the draw, the price of the favourite in the remaining fields, the way the horses run, the way the course it’s likely to be run… that will allow you to get positions matched in play like this.

You have to be patient…

Typically, it’s not until the latter stages of the race that you’ll have to wait until you get a bet that gets matched at some particular point or another because the race is generally won in the last three furlongs or so.

You can see circled is the horse that we traded, for this horse we asked for a much, much bigger price. The horse is going to win and yet we’ve been matched at that price as the race actually got underway.

So there are a number of characteristics within a race that will determine that. By simply using the margin maker, you can actually create a position that takes advantage of the price of a horse drifting in-play.

Now, the price of a horse can drift in-play if something else comes into contention automatically if it went on to win or if it loses its race, then you’re going to get matched at a higher price anyway.

That’s why we’ve used the dutching to do this, because if we price in a certain amount of margin, when we use the margin and make it Bet Angel will put that in in a much higher price.

Efficiency using margin maker

There are 6 horses in this race, 5 of them are going to lose. So 5 of those 6 will trade at a higher price. This means the position that we’re taking is based upon the margin that we’re asking for, the price that that generates and then the chance of that getting matched in play.

This makes it a far more efficient way to achieve a great result rather than attempting to offset a bet simply because you have some defined parameters to work with. In this case, you’ve got margin of 10% and that will tell you exactly what you need to do in order to get that matched.

So let’s flip to the to the next market in Perth and do the same again. If we were going to do the same in this particular market, then we can go to dutching, back all the horses, we then select whatever stake we want to use us. (I suggest you use practice mode and a small stake if you’re doing it for real.)

The Perth market example

Then we click on the horse that you want to drift in running. In this case, if we choose Moscow menace, it only needs to go from 4.1 to 7.8. Finally we ‘place the bets’ and then keep that bet by pressing the ‘keep all’ button in the in-play period. Now that position is ready to run in the next race in Perth!

Summary

This is a great way of using the margin maker and can give you brilliant results. The best thing about this is that it clearly shows you how much upside you will get and therefore what strike rate you need to be profitable. Which is, essentially, the key to all trading.

Best of all, it can even allow you to win by backing the loser!

The post Horse racing tips – Win by backing the loser! appeared first on Betfair trading blog | Expert advice from Professional Betfair trade.

The secret to squeezing more profit from Dutching

Dutching on horse racing

We have covered Dutching before in a number of articles, so read up on those specifics if you want to learn what Dutching is, how to do and how to use the specialist tools in Bet Angel to do perform a dutch bet.

Speaking broadly, Dutching is a viable betting strategy on the betting exchanges now as the book overround is so small. A Dutch bet covers a number of selections in a sports betting market, rather than just one. This will increase your chances because you will win if any of those selections win.

Bet Angel contains an advanced Dutching calculator. This means not only can you make multiple selections with your dutch bet, but you can also set a profit target, varying the profit not just the stake on each selection. But you can drive your risk and reward by varying the amount staked or the number of selections. So it makes for a good tool and strategy.

In this article, we look specifically at a ‘hidden’ feature that will allow you to get more out of any dutching strategy you use.

If you can only back bets then where are there more columns?

Let me show you something. You’ll notice on the dutching screen written in big, bold letters is “Dutching places only BACK bets into the market.”

If we actually look in more detail at the dutching screen, the columns we have on this screen show back, lay and manual. So naturally the question of why we have a ‘lay’ column comes to if you can only place back bets into the market?

Well, the answer comes from the book percentage. In the previous example on the other article, we backed six selections for 66% of the book. We’re going to use a stake of £100 and you can see on the righthand side that our ‘predicted profit’ could return £49.

In comparison, we could say we want to return £100, so by changing the back stake for a target profit of £100 (shown in the top left box below), you can see it says we need a total stake of £200. So we would make £100 if any one of these six horses go on to win this race, by having a stake of £200 into the market.

If I back at the current lay price on these selections, you can see in the image below that our total stake goes down.

Our plan is to place back bets in the market, but we’re going to back at the current lay price. This doesn’t place a lay bet, it still places a back bet, but at the current lay price. The current lay price is usually one tick up at decimal odds, but each tick adds extra profit or reduces your stake when dutching.

Now, those are going to be unmatched bets and naturally you need those bets to get filled. There are a number of ways of doing that, but essentially what you’re doing is you’re getting a better value bet by backing at the current lay price and asking for a price within the market.

If we go to use manual, you could actually ask for another price that doesn’t exist at this particular moment, somewhere slightly further out from the money.

Example of using manual on the favourite

But by backing at the current lay price, you squeeze that little bit of extra margin out of the book, which will help you overcome the commission that you pay. I have hinted at this practice in the past, discussing ways that dutching can help you to overcome some of the commission issues and this is one way to do so.

By basically taking a chunk of the book and asking for the price within the market, you’re actually creating a little bit more value in it.

So that will come in two forms, firstly it will come in either a lower stake, if you’re backing for a fixed target profit. Then if we look at the back with a stake off, in other words, if we’re using a fixed stake rather than looking for a target profit then you’ll notice that the return that you get, the predicted profit column, that number goes up.

So whichever way you do it, you’re going to get slightly more money out of that particular position.

So why dutch?

Dutching is a good way of aggregating risk, but also achieving a better chance of a payoff, simply by offering bets to the market. Now, those will be unmatched bets when they reach the market, but you’ll find that overall that makes a huge difference because you a tiny edge here as you start to amplify over many, many markets which becomes a huge edge for you after thousands of markets!

Dutching is placing back bets into the market, but you can back at the current back price, you can back at the current lay price and you could back at prices that you nominate, that’s a good way of getting extra value from it.

But when you are dutching, you should think about how much of the field you cover. Are you covering just one little part of the field? Because then essentially your Dutch bet becomes an outright bet on that favourite or this small part of the field, it doesn’t deliver much value to you. You might as well just bet the favourite!

But obviously one of the great things about dutching is that you can actually back any one of ‘x’ number of runners. So here we’re expanding that list to quite a large number of runners and we’re giving ourself the capacity to be able to profit if any of those come in, which you can’t do on much smaller fields.

So there you go!

I hope that gave you a little further exploration into the dutching side of things. I hope that this has given you a bit of a grip on the sort of stuff that you can do and how you have use dutching.

The post The secret to squeezing more profit from Dutching appeared first on Betfair trading blog | Expert advice from Professional Betfair trade.

Automation strategies – Merging your best Betfair bots

Most Betfair automation has quite a simple starting point. You build something that performs a simple function then you tweak it, add things, create new ideas and before long you have a suite of Betfair bots. Adding more automated trading, whether it is partial or full automation, will allow you to become a better Betfair trader or save time by automating your betting strategies.

Users of Bet Angel’s Advanced Automation may often find themselves needing to duplicate or re-create similar rules over and over again for each automation file they make. Horse racing markets tend to have defined endpoints and most Betfair trading strategies share some key elements which are duplicated.

What you may not be aware of is the Bet Angel Rules Editor already contains a ‘copy’ button on the top ribbon of the rules editor that allows you to quickly and easily copy rules from one file to another. This allows you to easily merge the best bits of your automation into a new rules file.

Putting it into Practice

A good example to demonstrate this would be to take the ‘Close Trade if in Loss for 10 seconds’ automation rule from the shared files library. That automated bot file is made up of 3 rule types with signals linking each one.

Adding a set of rules like this to a new automation file you create would normally take a few minutes (even longer if you have to keep flicking back and forth copying how it’s set up). But with Bet Angels ‘Rule Copy’ feature any existing rule including all its parameters, conditions signal and stored values etc can be copied from one automation file to another in a matter of seconds and with just a few clicks of your mouse.

So, for this example, I’m going to take the ‘Directional Scalping Pre-Off’ automation file also from the shared files section on the forum and I’m going to add rules from the ‘Close if in loss For Over 10sec’ to it.

To get Started select the Automation file you want to add your existing rules too then click on ‘Edit Rules File’ just to the right of this.

You will now see the familiar ‘Rules Editor Window’. On the top border of this window click the icon at the far right – this will open another similar window where you can select the source automation file you want to copy your rule/s from.

All you need to do is select the rule/s you wish to copy into your destination file. You can select as many of the rules from this source file as you wish (for this example I need all 3 of them), once the required rules are highlighted just click one of the three bottom buttons to copy them across. In the image bove I choose to ‘Add rules to End’ so they will appear at the bottom of my exsisting automation file I am copying them to.

And its as simple as that….. the source window can now be closed and all the rules selected will of been added to your current automation file – just remember to save (by clicking the disc icon in the upper right) and its ready to begin using.


If you don’t have many of your own rules but still want to try this out have a look at the shared files section on the forum, there are over 150 Ready-Made files you can download for free and using this simple technique you can combine rules from different files with just a few clicks.

If you don’t have a copy of Bet Angel just download a free trial here. One Bet Angel license allows you to install to an unlimited number of computers if you wish.

Enjoy!

Video Tutorial

The post Automation strategies – Merging your best Betfair bots appeared first on Betfair trading blog | Expert advice from Professional Betfair trade.

Horse racing Dutching tips – What is a good market?

Dutching on horse racing

We have covered Dutching before in a number of articles, so read up on those specifics if you want to learn what Dutching is, how to do and how to use the specialist tools in Bet Angel to do perform a dutch bet. So this article is focused on what is the best Dutching strategy. But before we look at that, a quick appraisal on Dutching.

Speaking broadly, Dutching is a viable betting strategy on the betting exchanges now as the book overround is so small. A Dutch bet covers a number of selections in a sports betting market, rather than just one. This will increase your chances because you will win if any of those selections wins.

Bet Angel contains an advanced Dutching calculator. This means not only can you make multiple selections with your dutch bet, but you can also set a profit target, varying the profit not just the stake on each selection. But you can drive your risk and reward by varying the amount staked or the number of selections. So it makes for a good tool and strategy.

I often get questions focused on asking what selections should you make and is there any criteria that you should use? Are there dutching strategies that you can use, any Dutching systems?

The fact is there are there are loads of things that you can do, but it’s really down to exactly what you’re trying to achieve. Is it a question of having your insights into form? Or are you using a purely mechanical system? All those sort of questions can come up because it’s down to what edge you think you can bring to market.

I hope this blog post can clear up some of these questions and help you gain a better understanding of dutching.

Understanding Dutching

Let’s start with something that’s quite simple, today we’re looking at a market which is pictured above. You can see here we’ve got a novice chaser at Ludlow. If I go into the dutching area and click on the favourite we’re going to Dutch for a target profit of £50.

If I click on the favourite, can you see the favourite makes up 33% of the book. So the favourite is one third of the market.

The market thinks the favourite has the 33% chance of winning, do you? If you do, then you should back it! If you don’t think that, you should lay it.

But what happens when you’re dutching? As you can see below, if we just click on that first favourite we’re effectively just backing the favourite. It simply becomes a value judgement.

The first thing that you know and you realise with dutching is if that the price on the favourite is really short, all you’re effectively doing is placing a value back bet. Therefore, you may as well just place a bet, as you don’t really deliver much value on top of dutching.

The only thing I would say is if you use a fixed stake and you use dutching to place your back bet, then you’re effectively backing in a proportion to the stake and the book percentage. So actually if you place a back bet this way rather than using a fixed stake then over time, if you’re achieving value after commission, your bank will expand getting bigger and bigger.

So there is an advantage to using dutching to place a back bet, but essentially you’re trying to avoid just placing a back bet you want to do something a bit cleverer.

So what do you select when Dutching?

In this example I’m using for this blog post, the market is a four runner market. I don’t particularly like four runner markets for trading for anything, to be honest, but let’s have a look at it and see how we can showcase Dutching.

If we click on the second favourite, we can cover 63% of the entire field. What I’m trying to show here is out of the 4 runners, we’ve backed two of them. So we now have covered 50% of the field with a 60% chance of winning.

So your judgement here is asking yourself whether these two runners have a better than 60% chance of winning this race? Because if they do, then you would tend to take this particular position, but you can see here that it’s not a very exciting position.

However, you’re still sort of in the realms of value backing. Effectively, you’re not doing anything particularly clever and it’s just not that interesting. Obviously, it could be the case that the 2:25 at Ludlow could be really exciting! But… we’re just saying from a strategy perspective whether this makes sense.

Is there some logic in the way in which we’ve approached this and a forerunner market covering half the field for a 64% chance, you may find something in there but I suspect that its probably not the best place to look for an edge.

How Dutching can give you the edge

So if we have a look down the market, there are lots of different races on today’s example which you can see in the image above. It is clear that some are better than others. However, if we skip forwards to the 14:50 at Doncaster we can follow the same progress again and see where we end up.

If we look at the favourite on this new race, you can see in the image above that it has got 15% of the book. It’s saying that there’s a 50% chance the favourite is going to win.

So let’s try and get that up to around 60% by dutching and see what happens…

Image of me selecting the first six horses, giving us a 67% implied chance

Firstly I’ve checked that we have 13 selections in this market. So, if I back the first six you can see that covering 67% of the implied chance gets a six selections out of a 13 runner a market.

Now if we look down towards the bottom you can see that some of these horse have smaller odds. Overall, can you see that we’re in a good position if 6 horses out of the 13 horses win this race. So we actually give ourselves a much broader mix in terms of the chance of some of these runners going on to win.

Whereas when we looked at the four runner market, we were just basically punting the front two! This gives you a much wider coverage and more interest within the market than narrowing your focus down to those two out of that forerunner field.

Therefore the second example clearly seems like a better proposition overall doesn’t it? Now, obviously some of this will come into the mix in terms of ‘do you think that one of these six is going to win the race?’

Summary

The scope to find a winner in the second example is much better than the first race. Not only is this because of the large number of selections, but those selections are better. Rather than just placing what is effectively a back bet, but we are also covering more selections and account for more variability in the result of the race.

Our focus on multiple runners is more or less what Dutching is all about. If you spread your risk across more selections then the chance of error is reduced and any overround in the book is spread over all those selections. If you just focus on one runner, as we did in our first example, the spread in the market is focused on that one selection, reducing our chances of long term profitability.

So when you focus on your Dutching strategy, find a range of selections to reduce your variability. Or you just end up looking for a value bet on smaller fields and that more or less negates the logic for placing a dutch bet in the first place.

Focus on markets where the outcome is the hardest to spot. That is where the best opporunties lie and where you are most likey to profit in the long term using this particular Betfair trading strategy.

The post Horse racing Dutching tips – What is a good market? appeared first on Betfair trading blog | Expert advice from Professional Betfair trade.