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Key trading points, automatically or with a click!

Bet Angel v1.55 see’s yet another innovate feature added to Bet Angel already highly customizable Betfair ladder trading screen, this new feature is called ‘Markers’.

As the name suggests ‘Markers’ allow the user to highlight areas of interest to them on the ladder screen. Markers are fully customizable allowing the user to highlight any cell/s or row on the ladder using top/bottom or side lines quickly and easily with a full border or the filling of the whole cell. Markers can be placed in any or all columns, ie, the odds column, traded volume column, odds, back/lay columns etc.

There are many reasons and advantages to using ‘Markers’, and this blog will show just a few of these as examples and how to configure them.

Cross-Over Odds and Key Prices

In the first image I’ve created markers to highlight all the cross-over odds (2.0, 3.0, 4.0, 6.0, 10.0 etc) by filling the cells white, I’ve also created markers to highlight where the key bookmakers fractional odds are on the ladder using a white border, ie, decimal odds of 2.10 is 11/10 in fractional odds, 2.20 is 6/5, 2.50 is 5/4 etc, all these key prices are now easy to see at a glance.

To create ‘Markers’ is very easy, begin by clicking on the spanner icon while on the ladder screen to open the Ladder settings editor, then go onto the ‘Markers Tab’, from there you will be able to customize and configure the ‘Style’, ‘Colour’, ‘Columns’ and ‘Prices to be marked’. The image below shows you the settings I used to create the ‘Markers’ on the ladder screen above.

In addition to setting markers as fixed prices they can also be set using stored values from servants or Automation rules, this gives them a further level of flexabiliy and makes them even more dynamic and even able to change automatically depending on the criteria you give them.

For example you might want to set a marker on the high/low traded price and have them continually update automatically as new high/lows are reached, allowing you to clearly see at a glance where a price of a selection has touched during a chosen period.

Display Markers from Servants & Automation Rules

In the next image I’ve taken a ready-made Servant you can download from the Bet Angel forum. Once started on a selection this Servant will begin storing the value of the highest and lowest back/lay prices reach. As you can see, I’ve started it on the first two ladders (at different times) the markers now make it clear to see the high/low prices these selections have touched since I started the Servant.

This works very simply, the Servant already has rules to store the value of the highest lay price of a selection with a stored value named ‘high’ And the lowest back price of a selection with a stored value named ‘low’

All we need to do now, is set up the ‘Marker’ in the Bet Angel Ladder settings area to look up the name of the shared stored value and configure how you want the marker displayed on your ladder screen. This time for the ‘Price to be marked’ option instead of using a ‘fixed price’ we’ll use ‘Shared Stored Value’, new fields will appear were you can input the stored value details. For this example we need to look for a stored value named ‘high’.

We then need to click the ‘Add Marker’ button to create another marker, this one will be to mark the price of the shared stored value named ‘low’, I will of course also be changing the columns option to the back column and using a different colour to fill the cell with.

Once that’s been done and you’ve saved the ladder settings you’re ready to go, just ensure you have that ladder settings profile selected on your ladder trading screen then start the servant on whichever selection/s you want to store the hi/lo prices on and you will see the prices marked for you.

Using the servant from the forum you can at any time start the servant on the same selection again and it will clear the current hi/lo prices marked and begin storing new hi/lo’s from that time onwards.

Point & Click to set Markers on Cells or Rows

Another way you might want to use a Marker is to manually place one on the fly to highlight a cell or row of cells where you have seen something of interest, perhaps you’ve spotted large amounts of unmatched money keep appearing/disappearing and want to highlight the price/s where this has been happening or some other activity that has caught your eye and you want highlight it with a ‘Marker’

Like the previous example above placing on the fly ‘Markers’ on the ladder in a point and click way requires the use of a servant. There is also a ready made servant and even a ready-made ladder settings file have been made for you and can be download from the following page on our forum.

All you need to do now is select that ladder settings profile and point your mouse cursor over a cell of a selection you want to place a ‘Marker’ on and click, a ‘Marker’ will then be placed across that row as shown in the image above, were you can see the marker placed on the 2nd and 3rd runners where i’d earlier seen some actvity of interest.

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York Ebor or Ebore?

The Yorkshire Ebor festival

We are at another key point on our journey through the year, as we head just south of the North York moors to York Racecourse.

The Ebor Festival starts on Wednesday and runs through to Saturday with the big race at the weekend. It’s by far the biggest meeting at York during the year and is packed with big prize money and some decent racing.

I like big meetings because of the amount of money that these bigger meetings and races generate. You also have the bookies and their desire to create a customer offer (terms and conditions apply). Both these things tends to lift the general level of activity in the markets.

You tend to find that when pre-race volume rises, so does in-play betting. The two are joined at the hip with about 80% of money being matched before the off and the remainder during the race. While this is no grand national, it’s a nice boost to the late summer card.

On the opening day, we have the Juddmonte international stakes and a decent chunk of prize money. Compare this with the tiny sums available at the lesser horse racing meetings. You should be able to see the appeal of this meeting.

Betfair Trading conditions

I’ve traditionally done OK at this festival each year, so I am looking for something above average this week. The Ebor meeting can yield some good results, but nothing is ever guaranteed and this meeting can be a bit random at times, so it’s probably not going to be all plain sailing. But it should be better than what we have been seeing recently though.

Traditionally, the space between two big meetings in racing can be pretty disappointing and that’s pretty much what we’ve seen since Goodwood. So I approach this week with raised hopes and it usually delivers.

As with other meetings of this nature you get some smaller races that lead up to the feature and then it tapers off againt towards the end of the day. So be prepared for rapdially changing conditions. Your options are to change strategies to reflect the shift in race types or avoid the ones you don’t like.

As always I’ll be trading them all and hope that York gives us a nice boost to the week and month.

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Know your predicted profit after a Goal

Succesful Betfair football trading

If you are a Betfair football trader wouldn’t it be great to know what your profit or loss would look like after the next goal? Whatever your Betfair trading strategy, it would obviously help.

This is important as, to trade successfully, you need to ‘frame’ your trade around a specific opportunity and fully understand the pay off. Knowing that one piece of information can help you decide how to manage your trade, know if it’s worthwhile and also where to pitch your exit trade/s at.

With Bet Angel you have the Betfair trading software and options to do exactly that. You can easily display your predicted profit or loss following a goal on your ladder or one-click screen. This profit/loss is shown in real-time and dynamically adjusts and updates as the time of the match progresses as the time decays, allowing you to adapt your strategy as the match progresses based on what’s happening in it.

Scenario – (Laying the Draw and show the Predicted Profit after a Goal)

For this example, I’ll use one of the most popular Betfair football trading strategies, lay the draw. In the image below I’ve already layed the draw pre-KO and can see straight away if the home team scores the opening goal I’ll make around £21.28, if the away team score first I’ll make a little bit more at around £30.19.

As the match gets underway and the time begins to decay the impact of a goal will continually effect the price the draw odds will reform at, as this changes so will your potential profit and this is continually updated for you in real time by the software so you can always be adjusting any exit/greening position accordingly while also being able to evaluate your risk/reward at all times during the match.

By contrast if you were to lay the draw in a match with a strong favourite, you will know you’ll have a good profit if the fav scored but if the under dog scores first this will cause the draw odds to shorten and put you in a losing position. In the image below you can see after laying the draw with a £10 stake, if the home team (the fav) scores first the predicted profit is £6.00, where as if the away team (under dog) scores first the predicted loss is -£10.39.

If you want to look at where the odds will at any point during the match but in the pre match period. It’s worth checking out Soccer Mystic which will give you this information.

How this is Done

To do this involves the use of the ‘+1 Markets’ from the fixture, as detailed in this similar blog which shows how you can displays the predicted odds after a goal on your Ladder or One-Click trading screens.

This works on most football matches where the appropiate markets are available on the betting exchanges. Whether you have a betting strategy or a trading one, it should help in the long term.

Just to give a brief re-cap of whats in that blog, by using the +1 markets these are effectively handicap markets which will show were the prices will reform around if either team were to score 1 more goal, then using Stored Values in Bet Angels advanced automation we can use those odds and look up the corresponding profit (or loss) against that price – and that’s what gets displayed to you.

Going back to the image at the top of this blog showing we’ll make £21.28 if the home team scores and, around £30.19 if the away team scores first if you were to scroll up to those values in the trade profit column on the ladder you’ll see the corresponding odds they relate to therefore you’d place your exit/greening bet around 4.7 if it looked more likely the home team will score first and around 5.4 if it looks like being the away team that will score first.

Displaying the Predicted Profit/Loss on your Ladder

Just as in that previous example all the files needed to display the predicted profits above your ladders have already been created for you to download and import into your Bet Angel. In total there are four files required which can all be downloaded from the following post on the Bet Angel forum

Once you have downloaded the files you would use them as follows.

Display Predicted Profit after a Goal.bls – this is a ladder settings file and needs to be imported into your ladder settings area, this will then display the ladder exactly as you see in the image above (you can of course use the Bet Angel ladder settings editor and edit any part of your ladder layout).

Profit Predictor after a Goal (Home).baf – this is a basic rules file and needs to be applied to the home team +1 markets in Guardian
Profit Predictor after a Goal (Away).baf – identical to the above rule but needs to be applied to the away team +1 markets in Guardian
Display Predicted Profit after a Goal (Match Odds).baf – this final rules file needs to be applied to the match odds market.

In the screenshot below you can see I’ve added the match odds market, the home team +1 and away team +1 for three fixtures and applied the relevant ‘Profit Predictor after Goal’ to the +1 markets and Display Predicted Profit after a Goal to the match odds market.

For example, the first fixture is Schalke 04 Vs Leverkusen
So, the Goal Odds Predictor (A) file is applied to Leverkusen +1 market (because Leverkusen are the away team)
And the Goal Odds Predictor (H) file is applied to Schalke 04 +1 market (because Schalke 04 are the home team)

And that’s all there is to it, when you open the match odds market of that fixture and place a bet on the draw (it can be a back or lay bet) it will continually update to display your predicted P/L should a goal be scored. You can place additional bets at anytime to add to or reduce your position and the predicted P/L will continually update

NB,To provide more accurate results I’ve included a condition that there must be greater that £1000 matched on the +1 market, so if you don’t see any values on your ladder then it will be because this condition has not yet been satisfied.

Trading the Home/Away Teams

With the rules file above you are not just limited to trading on the draw, you can use the same rules files to view your predicted profits (and losses) no matter whether your trading the home team, away team or the draw, all you need to do is make a simple change to the selection each rule is applied to.

This is done on the general tab of each of the rules in Guardian, so if you wanted to see your P/L from trading the home team you’d change the ‘Applies to selection’ 1 on the three rules files.

The post Know your predicted profit after a Goal appeared first on Betfair trading blog | Expert advice from Professional Betfair trade.

Betfair Trading day to day horse racing markets

After trading big meetings coming back to earth requires a change in mindset, when you go back to your day to day trading. This blog post looks into how even though big meetings can seem like the best way to make the most money, trading everyday individual racing markets can provide an amazing profit in the long run.

Coming back to reality

I’ve made it no secret that I like those big meetings, so what makes them so great?

My strike rate is exceptionally high at these big meetings and this means I’m very likely to get a positive trade out of any individual race and a big result on the meeting. With this in mind, am I going to stick in fivers as tenners on each trade? No, I’m going go for it and you’re going to throw as much money at it as you can.

That’s why I like the big meetings because know I’m probably likely to win…It’s just a question of how hard can I push it!

Personally, I push really hard during these big meetings and that’s why I get those big results. However, big results are typically unusual. Therefore, you shouldn’t set your bar at a five, six hundred or consecutive amounts like that – you want to set your bar much lower. The reason for that is the market in general can’t tolerate bigger staking.

So when we transition out of a big meeting back to more standard fodder, you’re going to have to reappraise the way that you trade, but that’s fine, that’s exactly what you do. I flex my trading style depending upon what’s in front of me.

How I change my approach each week

It is the same coming out of a big meeting, there’s no way when I look at an ordinary racing card that I’m going to be using two and a half grand stakes to trade a race day because the market just will not take it. Using large stakes in small markets means the market will do one of two things. It could:

1) stop the activity in the market at that particular point as I’m trying to get an order filled and it won’t pass through it.

2) the market could get scared and start running away from your order and therefore you can’t get filled when you’re attempting to close your order.

It’s important to understand that you’ve got to flex in and out depending upon what’s in front of you. If the market’s got loads of money coming through, you’re expecting the match amount matched to be very high, then you can increase your stakes and you can really do a lot within that particular market.

But if that’s not there, then you just pull your risk down by reducing your level of stakes. While it’s lovely to see those big greens that I post after big meetings. It’s not realistic to think that that’s typically how the market trades. Only at a big meeting like Ascot, Cheltenham or the Guineas you can sort of expect to get some big totals.

Of course, if you’re starting out or you’re an intermediate trader, you’re not going to have enough practice at these big meetings to be able to push really hard. This will mean that you may not get the result you wanted.

The thing that I’ve noticed at Cheltenham this year was that the queue size is getting smaller and that’s because the market’s getting a little bit more volatile. So that’s actually bringing in the opportunity for people to trade it a bit more conventionally like you see on a day to day basis.

Assess your risk

But as we transition out of those big meetings and in to the normal type of trading that you expect to see, it’s really worth trying to stay out of trouble, not doing anything stupid. You have to remember that it is really a case of trying to get a good result overall.

It may not sound impressive, but getting it is worth getting an average of £10 a race. I say this to put some context of when you’ve just seen me post a P&L of £500 that I’ve managed to achieve at a Cheltenham or a big meeting. However, it’s those everyday results which are the ones that become really important because over the course of the year, you could easily do 10,000 of those!

So if you can average £10 a race, for example (I’m not setting an expectation here – a random statistic!) and you’re doing ten thousand races – that’s obviously a lot of money you can make in the end. You could even set it much smaller and still achieve something great, but the way that it arrives is going to be very different from what you would expect at a major meeting.

At a major meeting, I expect a string of profits and I’m pushing as hard as I can to make those profits as big as possible. Every now and again, I screw up and one of those races that really should be in a profit isn’t and it just falls off the edge of a cliff. It’s at that point that I realise that I pushed too hard.

It’s rare to get all of them absolutely correct and you usually mess up on one or two. However, when I’m trading during a ‘normal’ week I’m going to be very defensive compared to big meetings. I’m going to lower my stakes right down and I’m planning not to make any mistakes.

My final profit comes from a combination of profits and losses, looking for an overall average profit figure.

Understanding the bigger picture

When trading in every day markets, I’m not looking to go on some ridiculous run or bag some enormous amounts of profit on each individual race or market. The way that I’m going to do it is I’m going to say, ‘I’m going to trade 30, 40 races over the course of the day and I’m going to end up ahead of things by the end of the day.’

So, for example, if you have a strike rate of 75% and then you’ll make a tenner 75% of the time, but you lose £20 25% of the time, you end up plus £10 over the mix of 10, 20, 30 or so races. So the strike rate and the amount you win and lose are going to interact quite heavily. The way that they often interact tends to be uneven. I’ve given you a very clear number here and people love clear defined numbers, but it never works like that.

The reality is you’re P&L is going to be more like, -£5, + £10, -£7, +£20, -£30, +£75…

It’s a really bumpy journey all the way along and at the end of that you’ll end up with a strike rate of some level, 60, 70% or something. It’s the mixture of your strike rate and the profits and losses that deliver you the profit at the end of the week.

Keep chipping away!

Keep chipping away even if you think you won’t get there in the end!

Now, I’m going bring up a spreadsheet here of some activity way back in 2007.

If you look at the way that the P&L was created, I ended up on a very big total by the end of the month. As you can see the total was made up of loads of little positives and negatives and I just kept on chipping away.

Circled in green is my P&L for this day in 2007

The methodology that I have is that I chip away at the market and I’m trying to get a profit at relatively low risk.

I don’t know how that profit is going to arrive – it’s basically going to be positive here, negative, positive, positive, negative. I’m just trying to make a good decision based upon what I see in the market. Generally, what I’m trying to do is avoid a loss. I’m trying to get myself in the position where the chance of a loss is much lower and then profits arrive off of the back of that.

That’s generally how I tend to trade, trying to get myself into a good position where a loss or a chance of a loss is minimised and then I’m letting the profit run. If the profit starts to look good, then I may just push a little bit harder and try and get that profit a little bit higher.

But generally, the sequence of events almost looks random. If you look at the progression by looking at the equity curve over the course of this particular month in January 2007, you can see the equity curve seems to just smoothly go upwards with a little couple of bumps.

My equity curve for January 2007

You will get the odd cock up and the odd positive result, but generally, the equity curve rises smoothly. When you look at the individual results, you’ll notice that there’s a right old mixture in there. Some are quite positive, some are negative and there’s no clearly defined path. If you’re trading properly, that’s typically what you tend to find.

If you wind forward over a number of years, that’s more or less exactly the way that my P&L looks outside of a big meeting. I’m getting little profits, I’m getting little negatives and overall it’s all coming out in the mix by the end of the week, by the end of the month, by the end of the year. The advantage of doing it this way is the more markets you trade than generally, the more money that you make.

Finding the balance in an unbalanced environment

You’re trying to get as many trades through as possible, in as many markets. The more that you do that, knowing that you have a positive expectancy, means that you typically end up over any particular period. That’s why I like racing, because those positivesand negatives balance themselves out really, really quickly and over the course of the week, you can do pretty well.

Even though you’re probably not going on any particular long winning run – just think about it you’re not really going on any particular long losing run either!

The way that the results appear won’t be random because you’ve got some logic in there, but they’re just not coming in a regular pattern. That can be frustrating at times because you can be chipping away for ages and nothing will happen. But then you get that big result or, of course, you could get a negative. Then you would just gradually chip away at it with loads of positives.

Why positive expectancy catches out new traders

Sometimes this is what catches people out when trading because it doesn’t have that nice, smooth approach. It can be a little bit stressful when you’re having a bad day, on the contrary having a good day can lead to overconfidence.

So typically, my attitude & desire, when we trade on a normal week. Is just to do the best I can in every individual market. The goal is to try and minimise where I’m likely to make a loss by maximising the entry positions within the market and managing the trade well. I’ll also adjust my staking to help. Then I’ll continue to chip away at each market as frequently as I can to try to end up to a bigger total at the end of whatever period I’m measuring over.

When you first start, I suggest you measure over a month, but maybe when you’re a bit more experienced you’d want to measure over a week. By measuring on an individual day or checking your P&L as it is progressing is a disaster because it will influence the way that you trade the next market. Whether you’re behind or ahead will lead alter the way that you trade the next market.

So all I do is just chip away each market, do the best that I can. And then I look at the P&L at the end of the day and go, ‘oh, yeah, that went well! Or maybe I’ll do better tomorrow.’

But it’s also important that when you’re coming out of a big meeting, don’t believe these big meetings are the norm!

The mundane stuff is where a lot of the money comes from and it’s going to be small positives and small negatives, but adding up over a period of time. So, prepare yourself for those types of markets as they make up the majority of what you will do over a year.

Get those right and approach them in the right manner and you will do well over the course of the year.

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