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Tips for the Grand National Meeting – Aintree

Cheltenham is behind us, and the flat season is officially underway and this weekend we have the last major jumps meeting of the year which is, of course, nations favourite horse racing spectacular – The Grand National.

Grand National Betting

Grand National betting is a craze that sweeps the nation once a year.

Up and down the country people will be gambling in an attempt to find Grand National winners. Offices will be tearing up their favourite newspapers to do a sweepstake. It’s the one time a year that everybody turns into a punter.

The race fuels interest in horse racing each year which is curious as it’s an impenetrable betting market!

To be fair, it’s pretty unique and while Cheltenham attracts the more serious and expert punter, the Grand National is undoubtedly the race that everybody knows and anyone usually has a punt or gets involved in some form or another. That usually throws up some great trading and betting opportunities.

I’ve traditionally done well at the Grand National, it’s a weekend I wouldn’t give up trading. I often find it frustrating as a Betfair trader, not because of the lack of opportunity. But because it is the one time each year I guarantee that everybody asks me for some Grand National tips.

So let’s start with some advice you can give somebody, if they want a bet on the Grand National.

My Grand National trading result from 2019

Tips for picking a winner on Grand National day

Grand national odds show the super competitive nature of the race and that’s a reflection on just how hard it can be to pick a winner out of the 40 horses running on Grand National day. Picking one winner from the grand national runners is a really impossible task. But let us have a go at that so you can give some advice!!

Get some decent odds

If you take bookmaker odds you’re gonna get shafted for want of a better word. So my first real tip for you or anybody betting on the Grand National is to not use a bookmaker. Find a betting exchange to place your bet with, as on a betting exchange if you do happen to win, then you’ll win a lot more money. Placing a bet online is preferrable as well. The competition is fierce with online gambling so you will get a better price especially if you take up a promotional offer. If you use a betting exchange you can use trading software to improve your functionality when betting in different ways.

Don’t back the favourite

Grand National favourites tend to make really bad bets, you may want to lay them. In the twenty years, I’ve been actively watching the grand national live, virtually none have won. When I ran the data over much longer periods, before exchanges, the picture didn’t improve. Bookmakers love to have a story on the national and that tends to shorten the favourite to odds beyond where they are reasonable value. Don’t back a favourite, apart from Tiger Roll and Red Rum perhaps!

Choose something with experience

It’s a good idea to have a horse that has been out racing regularly. Try to choose a horse that has been running fairly recently and preferably one over a reasonable distance, preferably over three miles. Grand National winners have raced eight weeks or less prior to winning the Grand National and only two of the last 21 winners had fallen or unseated their rider more than twice prior to winning.

Age is key to some green, by not being too green

Younger horses have a terrible track record at the Grand National as do older horses. So try and look for horses that are aged somewhere mid-range. When I looked at the stats since 1950 the winner tended to be a nine year old by frequency, with 35% of winners being that age. The range fell into 8-12 year old’s, peaking at nine and sloping away from there.

Matched bet turnover

The Aintree festival starts on Thursday and takes place over 3 days. So the first thing to note is that it is one day shorter than other festivals like Cheltenham and Royal Ascot. Based on past years, I’d expect the turnover for the three days to be between £40m – £50m with around £9m traded pre-race on the Grand National itself.

Most races exhibit similar characteristics and volume is quite high to start with and builds consistently during the day. The Grand National whowever is an active market for most of the day and builds quickly in the last half an hour. The Grand National start time is 17:15 and is an hour later than when I first started trading it many years ago. The later start time is useful as there is more time for money to arrive, but it can skew my entire results on the Saturday to just the Grand National itself. So the pressure is usually on when we approach the big race!

Turnover on Betfair at the Aintree Grand National meeting

Betfair trading on the Grand National meeting

Unlike the Cheltenham festival, you won’t see large chunks of money stacked up waiting to be matched around the current price. So you won’t have the frustration you can sometimes get sitting and waiting for ages for your orders to be filled prior to the big race itself on Saturday afternoon. This will happen on the Grand National itself though and money will arrive in the market earlier and bigger than you would see on any race throughout the year. Generally though, most races will trade like a regular Saturday afternoon with each feature race looking to turnover around £2m pre-off.

Betfair BSP at the Grand National meeting

For such a large field the BSP can still be very will often still be very close to 100%, in fact in two of the recent years it has dipped below, so you could have backed all runners at SP and secured a profit before the runners at the back of the pack even set off. Like some other meetings that we see during the year, that have competitive markets, the overound on the starting price at the meeting is gradually getting tighter and tighter.

Betfiar SP book% at the Grand National meeting

Trading In Running

If you’re looking to lay the field rather than doing so at less than 2.0 as you normally would you might want to look at doing so at slightly odds higher odds somewhere between 3.0-5.0. You will need to get more runners matched to lock in your profit, but the data does show that is more likely than laying at lower odds and that makes sense when you think of the distance and number of runners involved in this race.

Alternatively, you may want to look at DOBing, while none of the eventual winners have come from the top four in the betting since one of the joint-favourite won back in 2008 using a DOBing or back 2 lay strategy on the front 4 usually works quitee well. In seven of the last eight years 2 of the front 3 have traded at 50% there BSP or lower.

All that’s left for me to say is good luck to everyone who trades it and I hope that we get to see a quality race to round this year’s jumps season off.

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Betfair Trading – Golf – US Masters

The US Masters Golf

The first major is upon us and it’s a market that will pull in many millions in bets and trades on Betfair. We have reached that time of the year when we can watch the finely manicured lawns of the US Masters golf tournament. It’s a huge Betfair trading market which I’ve enjoyed for many years, but of course, the big question is how to win something!

Golf is a curious market for me and not something you would expect from somebody whose predominant focus are horse races! You also will gues that, as far as betting markets go, Golf isn’t as popular as other traditional sports betting markets.

However, when I joined betting exchanges way back in June 2000 is was one of the first markets I tackled. It was simply because it often seemed mispriced to me and when I started sports trading, that was what I was looking for. I don’t extensive work now on Golf betting markets and while I could do them more often by adding in a range of PGA tour events to my mix. I tend to focus on the Majors. The first of which is the US Masters.

I like the US Masters. This is mainly because it’s the only major played on the same course each year. This means you can collect a ton of stats on how the course plays and form your strategies around that. It gives me a good guide as to when to trade in and out of a position. You can do this on most courses, but because the Masters is at the same location every year it is much more predictable.

The masters tournament is a bit different from something like the US Open or the Open Golf. For starters it is invitiational, meaning that you can’t be guaranteed the right the play there, like an open championship. So you get a right mixture or players. You could have a seasoned professional, such as Phil Mickelson or Tiger Woods, paired with an amateur player. Past masters champions can come back and play, so Sandy Lyle, Fred Couples and others turn up for a leisurely stroll. It’s perfectly possible for a breakthrough player like PGA Tour’s Tommy Fleetwood, to get matched up with a former legend. This sort of thing can only happen at the Masters as you only qualify for Open championships on merit.

There are some quaint traditions as well. The champions dinner sees last years winner nominate what food is served at the following year’s dinner. At first tee, there is the tradition of previous champions teeing off. Jack Nicklaus or any combination of previous legends get the whole thing started, but age often means that as far as they go. But it’s sort of fun to see new and old.

High liquidity

I prefer US majors to be honest, as the start times are much more UK friendly. The Masters routinely has more matched bet volume than other tournaments and sometimes similar amounts to the British Open. Based on prior years I’m expecting volume to be in the £8m range. In 2012 it was just £4m for some reason, but that seems to be anomalous and the average has been around £7m at first tee on average.

It’s interesting to note that volume has a double peak before the off at the Masters. The night before the tournament volume increases steadily till around 10pm UK time, before dwindling to tiny amounts in the early hours. Next morning, the action starts to pick up at 6am and builds steadily to peak for a second time just before the first tee off time. So if you are looking to get a position on, those are the best times. Prices tend to be pretty static.

How the course plays at Augusta country club

If you are a golf player, when you step up to the first tee you will already know which are the hardest and easiest holes thanks to the stroke index. When trading, knowing the hardest holes isn’t sufficient, you need to know what impact each hole is likely to have on the score. Augusta gives us this chance.

Laying shorter priced players ahead of a trickier part of the course or backing bigger prices approaching easier holes can be a good strategy. Order of play can influence this. If one player has just passed through a trickier section without dropping a shot and is followed by a rival. A lay is a good bet on the chasing player. Any dropped shot or the potential for one will send their price out.

The most likely hole to drop a shot on is the 11th, but variance to par, one of my main metrics, means that a dropped shot is quite likely to occur in bunches. The most expensive three holes on the course are holes 10-12 where on average there is a nearly a 28% chance of dropping a shot.

Players tend to pick up shots on the par fives so holes 13-15 are where players are more likely to do that. There is an average 40% chance you will pick up a shot on these holes. Players are most likely to eagle the 13th, but two holes later is another chance. The last three holes are testing and dropped shots are likely here.

Watch the video to learn how thinking like this during a Golf tournament, can produce a really spectacular golf trade.

The US Masters produced the perfect golf trade

Chasing the leader

One in seven tournaments the first-day leader sees out the whole tournament. But that doesn’t sound as bad if you say the opposite, which is that 86% of the time they won’t. But, of course, some of this is down to how much they lead by in each round.

90% of eventual winners are at least five shots within the leader after day one. This is similar on day two but weighted towards the top of that group and at the end of day three if you are within three of the lead that’s where 86% of the eventual winners come from. Only four of 80 winners I looked at were six shots or more behind on the final day.

Previous year highlights

In 2014 Rory McIlroy was sent off a favourite at 11.5 but had slipped to 110 by the cut. The eventual winner and former green jacket holder Bubba Watson was three shots in the lead and trading at only 3.0 by the cut. McIlroy went from 36.0 to 7.0 in 2011 before losing and just 3.55 from an SP of 8.0 in 2012. In 2013 he was sent off at 15.5 and reached 6.2.

Jordan Speith was on fire in 2015 and couldn’t be caught, in 2016 he traded as low as 1.09 before shooting a seven on the tricky 12th hole to hand the Masters to Danny Willett. 2017 was notable for a huge battle for the title that ended in a playoff between Garcia and Rose. Their prices flip-flopped alternatively as one of them headed for the title. The last two years have been great markets.

2019 was all about Tiger woods, not really expected to win but nonetheless went of in a group of contenders at 20’s. The rest they say, is history.

This year will be be intriguing with Dustin Johnson looking to defend the title as the shortest holder, in time terms at least. Bryson De Chambeau will be looking to try and match his play with his often quoted rhetoric.

The ‘perfect’ trade

There is no such thing as a perfect trade, but in 2017 we came close. Jordan Spieth opened the day three under for the tournament and had a good front nine. That left him seven under on the turn. Holes 10-12 are quite likely to see a dropped shot so the focus on whether he could avoid that. Danny Willett was already through the same section and was having a fine round. So far he had moved from par for the tournament at the open to two under after finishing at hole 12. Holes 13 to 15 presented opportunities to pick up shots and close in on the leader.

Spieth was trading at 1.09 for the tournament but dropped a shot at the 10 and 11. Nerves kicked in on 12 where he ended up in the water twice and then the bunker for a seven on the tricky par three. Suddenly Willett was in the lead just had to try and not drop a shot or two on the final three. With confidence high, he gained one.

It took just 33 minutes for Spieth to go from [1.09] to losing by three shots. That’s golf for you!

General advice

Some of how the Golf plays out depends on the weather, which we don’t know for sure just yet. If it’s consistent then stick with the leaders later in the tournament. If it’s not, then start laying them. A lead of a few shots will get more valuable with each hole played. It’s best to stick with opposing players who have a slender lead to lose on a harder part of the course. Always bear in mind the tougher and easier holes and you will put yourself in a good position to trade out for a profit.

It’s tricky to just pick off one or two selections. So use Bet Angel’s dutching or dobbing tool to capture value on a bunch of them. You will only need one or two of those to have a good round for their price to shorten dramatically and put you into profit. This tends to make sense on the first and second days, but focusing on the leaders in the final two days is where you will find opportunities.

Good luck!

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Trading Easter Racing – Treading on Eggshells?

It’s an important weekend on the sporting calendar this weekend it’s Easter!

This can only mean one thing. Easter eggs and the permission to eat your body weight in chocolate. However, word has it that apparently there are plenty of other reasons why we should celebrate Easter.

It’s traditionally a time of family gatherings and other events and it times gone past there wasn’t much sporting action. However, there are lots now in recent years even horse racing had joined in on this long weekend.

But the key question is, is it worth trading it?

The card for racing on the betting exchange over Easter is actually quite interesting. Traditionally Racing wasn’t run on Good Friday but the racing industry decided to break that tradition and in 2014 they started racing on Good Friday.

There is one significant meeting which is Lingfield which hosts the all-weather championships. This is a highlight for Good Friday if you choose to trade on that particular day.

So I’ve sort of slipped into the mode typically of not trading on Good Friday. If the weather is good, that’s even more likely! But sometimes circumstances conspire and I can trade it. I got a really decent result in 2017. But the result and the opportunity to do it are generally exceptions to the rule.

But if you want to trade on Good Friday, Lingfield is where the best opportunties will be.

Easter Saturday and Sunday

The Saturday card is pretty much what we would expect from a Saturday and there’s obviously a lot less racing on Easter Sunday.

The feature this Saturday will be Haydock and Fairyhouse, but there is a lot of action on and it may clash as there are still a lot of jumps meetings to be sandwiched in.

On Sunday there is racing going on but I’m probably not going to trade that. I tend to use Sundays to recharge my batteries. Fairyhouse has a good card this Sunday, but I’ll just put my automation on it.

Easter Monday

Then we come around to the Bank Holiday Monday. This actually isn’t one of my favourite days of the year, because we are still in the jumps season and there’s going to be a lot of racing on Monday.

So it’s all going to fall in over the top of itself and be a bit of a mess. This is typically what happens and this is why I’m not particularly keen on doing much on Easter Monday. It tends not to be very profitable and it’s not going to be worth the sacrifice of not being able to enjoy Easter weekend with the family or part thereof.

One race I will definitely turn up for is the Irish Grand national. At this time of year, I try to pull off the feat of a decent profit on the English and Scottish Grand National, so I try to top that off with the Irish as well!

The bottom line is, it’s a mixed bag of events. As a consequence you may want to think carefully about whether you want to do it and if you do what targets you pick.

Summary

The Newmarket Craven Meeting is around this period, which is the first flat group racing of the season. This means we’re now in that crossover period, between the jump season and the start of the flat season.

Therefore the Easter weekend does present some opportunities, but not standout opportunities. The reality is that due to the muddle of jump and flat racing at the moment it won’t present very clear-cut trading opportunities. Plus, the racing is generally of lower quality which means liquidity tends to be a little bit lower as well, which increases the level of risk that you’re going to take in the market.

To summarise Easter weekend has some highlights, but it may or may not be one that you choose to trade but you need to ensure you carefully pick and choose your opportunities. It’s a balance between what you want to do and your availability on this day.

With grown-up children now, they would typically be working or doing their own thing this Easter. That means I could trade it, but with a busy period of racing just around the corner, this is typically my chance to recharge the batteries ahead of a, hopefully, busy and long summer.

I hope you have a great Easter.

The post Trading Easter Racing – Treading on Eggshells? appeared first on Betfair trading blog | Expert advice from Professional Betfair trade.

Flat packed – The Flat turf season is back

Tomorrow marks the traditional return of the flat turf season at Doncaster.

The end of the footy season is nearing, the Grand National is right upon us and the first Golf Major of the year is almost here. It’s a period of transition, but also optimism.

 The Lincoln has been going since 1859 and this complex handicap is a traditional launcher for flat turf racing season. There have been some two-year-olds out already, so the flat season has started, but this is the real launchpad.

As you are aware my trading is biased to horse racing and specifcally pre-off horse racing. During the jumps season I always pull in lower results that I can during the flat turf season. So seeing the green stuff on my TV is usually matched by seeing a lot more green stuff on my trading screen.

All my stats show that turnover, activity, suitability for trading and all those things, pick up when the flat turf season is in progress. So I’m always excited to see the first race take place. It means I’m on my way to peak season!

Transition

During this period we are going through a transitional period on the horse racing. This can be a little distruptive as different race types, over different codes at different stages of the season all jumble in together.

As we move from the National Hunt season to the Flat season proper, the return of flat racing over the green stuff may bring out new horses or improvers from last year. The Grand National is the big swansong for National Hunt season and that is winding down now, so the quality horses will be put out to pasture and the rest will be scattered around the markets. Form lines are strong, so it’s unlikely you will see that much new reflected in the market. With a lack of incentive to build to a big meeting,  the jumps racing loses a bit of steam.

Meanwhile, due to the start up of the flat season, I will keep an eye out for maidens at this time of the year. These are races where there are horses that may have never seen a course before and they can be quite interesting markets to trade.

Mixed up

So overall, you will tend to find the mix of horses out for the tail end of the jumps season changes the racing a fair bit as it winds down. That makes the markets feel very different. The untested two years olds out on the turf will also mix things up. How do you rate a horse that’s never run before?

So the theme at this time of year is for a different feel to the markets. The week before Cheltenham feels very different to Cheltenham itself and the week after, even more so.

I did a video a few of years ago about its impact which is worth a look, as it discusses the impact on the markets. The quality of videos has improved since then, but the message is more or less the same.

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