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Identify Betting Arbs in Betfair’s Related Markets

Finding cross market value

If you trade events on Betfair with connected markets like Football, you can use Bet Angel’s unique ‘Markers’ feature to highlight prices from one market to another on your ladder screen, this enables you to quickly spot and take advantage of any Arbing opportunities you’d otherwise miss or see which of the connected markets is offering the better price for your entry or exit.

Football markets

For example, if you look at the Under 0.5 and 0-0 Correct Score market these are effectively the same market so should always move in sync due to Betfair using xmxm (cross-market, cross-matching) as bets placed in one will often get matched in the other by but every now again the prices do step out of line and differ and this gives you the opportunity of an Arb (risk free bet) or one of the markets might offer a better back/lay price.

If you look at the image below on the left is the correct score market and the ladder for the 0-0 score line, for illustration purposes on the right I’ve also displayed the under Over/Under 0.5 ladders. Now notice the ‘Markers’ highlighted in the back/lay columns on the 0-0 Correct Score ladder – they are displaying were the back and lay price of the Under 0.5 currently are so you can see quickly and easily if these step out of sync.

In that image there is no arbing opportunity, but you can see there is a better lay price available in the 0-0 market (odds of 24.0) than the Under 0.5 where the best lay price is 25.0.
Fast forward a little later an Arb opportunity did appear, as you can see from the ‘Markers’ on the 0-0 ladder you could back in the Under 0.5 market by taking the available back price of 20.0, then lay at 19.5 in the 0-0 CS market at the same time creating a risk free arb bet.

How this is achieved on Bet Angel

You can do this using any interconnected market and even on multiple interconnected markets if you want to get really creative, but to get you started here I’ve created the two files that are required to display markers on the correct score market from unders markets.

These files are not just limited to 0-0 and under 0.5 markets, once a goal is scored you can then use the same file on the under 1.5 market to display the markers on the Correct Score market of either the 1-0 or 0-1 ladders, depending on who scored, after a 2nd goal it could be applied to the under 2.5 market to display the back/lay prices from that market on either the 1-1, 2-0, or 0-2 ladders in the correct score and so on.

In the image below the match went 0-1 so the file has been applied to the over/under 1.5 market so is using markers to highlight were the back/lay odds for under 1.5 goals are from that market on the 0-1 ladder in the correct score market.

If you’d like to see whats shown above displayed on your ladder trading screen all the settings have already been created and saved, all you need to do is download and import the files straight into your Bet Angel from the following post on our forum.

If you are a football trader you might also be interested in displaying the predicted odds after a goal on your ladder trading screen, if so for full details on how to do that please see this blog

Or to know what your predicted profit/loss would be after the next goal then see this blog

The post Identify Betting Arbs in Betfair’s Related Markets appeared first on Betfair trading blog | Expert advice from Professional Betfair trade.

The Bet Angel Market Overview Screen

The market overview screen on Bet Angel is a very useful part of the software and should form part of any Betfair trading strategy you are using. It’s actually been in Bet Angel pretty much from the day the product was created so it’s been in there for a long time, but we have tweaked and refined it over a number of years.

So here is an overview of the market overview screen and what is does and how you can modify and use it.

Colours and Customisation

Let’s start with some basics.

If you want to change the colours of the Market Overview screen you can do so in the settings and it’s possible to do that. Some people don’t like the white background and want a black background and you can change that in settings.

If you head over to the Bet Angel settings, then select charts. Here you can find how to modify the colour scheme used on the market overview screen.

An Overview of the Market Overview Screen

What I’m going to focus on in this video is how the information is displayed.

On the bottom left of the market overview screen, the market Overview chart presents you with a list of all the individual runners. This will help you spot trends a little bit quicker.

We can look closer at these by using sliders the on left or right. This will allow you to see all of the individual runners available on the screen. If you don’t use the sliders you can use the auto zoom that will basically cover all runners within that particular market.

On the bottom right-hand side here we have the Risk Meter. This is basically looking in the market and telling you how volatile that is. If it’s over in the red it’s saying the market’s very volatile, if over in the green, it’s saying it’s quite stable when you can see the yellow area here it’s saying this market is behaving pretty much as we expect. The risk meter is just giving you a view on the market and looking at how it is behaving based upon these types of markets historically, so that should prove useful.

Incidentally,  you can sort or grab each these panes and move around or delete them. When you save that in settings you can have that as your standard default Market Overview screen so it is actually possible to modify all elements of the screen. If you save the settings that will allow you to have all of that set up exactly the way that you wish.

The overview contains a range of information about the market you are interested it.

Market overview headers

Reading from left to right there is a range of information available for you to view: –

  • Racecloth number
  • Silks, hover over these to get more information about the jockey and form etc.
  • Back price
  • Lay price
  • Last trading price
  • Implied probability (Chance of winning)
  • Current high traded price
  • Current low traded price
  • Where is the current price in it’s traded range
  • How much money has been traded on this runner
  • What volume % does this runner have of the market
  • Should this appear on the overview chart?
  • What colour should this runner be
  • What is the projected SP
  • What is the actual SP (Only appears when the market goes inplay)

Market Overview Options

At the top left of the screen you can see we’ve got the overview options available. There are a number of different ways of modifying the Market Overview screen.

If you have the Market Overview screen up and you’re wandering around Guardian or looking at a watch list then it can automatically display the Market Overview data related to that. You can also have it displayed as panes or you can have it displayed as tabs. You can also it split up into individual tabs so you can have the grid on one tab and the chart on the other it’s up to you how you wish to display that particular information. Again, if you save this it will save within your settings as well.

  • Using the column chooser you can decide what columns appear on the screen by removing columns or adding columns that prefer
  • With charting, which is the overview chart that you can see at the bottom left. You can change a range of options relating to this how and what is displayed
  • The ‘overview’ area can change how the overall screen actually looks and it allows you to decide how it draws information into the screen.

Using with a mouse-over Watch List.

As we have shown you can get the market overview screen to display what is on Bet Angel Guardian. But you can also do this in terms of a mouseover as well.

This means that when you’re actively moving the mouse around it will actually highlight those markets underneath your mouse in the market overview screen. This feature is really useful for something like the watch list. If we have populated a watch list, we don’t need to visit the market we want information on, it’s going to automatically appear on the market overview screen.

Using the overview with a Watch List

Summary

The Market Overview is a really useful way of getting a summary of all the activity in the market at a glance and it will present you with a few opportunities if you use it for this.

Before each session, I start up Bet Angel Guardian and the market overview screen and start flicking through the markets to see what is infront of me on the day. It’s a good way of not only getting an overview on what is ahead of you for the day, but also for spotting opportunties.

This is made particulary easy with all the customisable and display options available on the market overview screen. It was one of the first extended features, we put into Bet Angel, but it’s evolved a fair bit in the interveneing years. So it’s worth checking out!

The post The Bet Angel Market Overview Screen appeared first on Betfair trading blog | Expert advice from Professional Betfair trade.

Horse racing | Rule 4 deductions for withdrawals

Anybody who has been close to, own, or rides a horse will know they flighty animals and that extends to their behaviour when they are racing.

I never knew the importance of a jockey until I started really understanding horse racing, but handlers and jockeys can have a lot of influence over the way a horse is prepared and produced during a race. Keeping a horse ‘happy’ or maintaining it’s temperament can be a tricky business, especially with sprinters who are bred to be highly strung types.

Unfortunately, it’s a fairly regular occurrence that a horse can misbehave and sometimes refuses to load in starting stalls or refuses to go to post. When this occurs the horse is withdrawn from the race and a Rule 4 betting deduction is applied to a betting market.

What is a ‘Rule 4’?

Rule 4, or Rule 4(c) given its full title, is an agreed industry standard which protects layers in any market in the case of non-runners. You should see these terms replicated on any betting site as they are applied as standard terms in the industry.

If you take a price on a horse or greyhound in a race after the final declarations are made, and one or more of the others are then declared non-runners, the original price will no longer reflect the real chance of winning the race. When a rule 4 is applied this will reduce your pay-out should your selection win, with the reduction depending on the price at the withdrawn runner.

How often does horse get withdrawn from a race?

The chance of a horse not starting a race is quite common, but this is more a function of the number of runners you get in a horse race.

Each day you could get seven or more races at a meeting and there could be three to six meetings run in a day. Each of those races will contain an average of ten runners, so on any one day, you could have 420 or more horses running.

Expecting all 420 horses to behave themselves and start all races as expected, is a bit of a longshot. So the odds of a withdrawn horse on any one day is actually quite high. There may also be more than one per race, the most I have ever seen was in one race was six, reducing a field of 11 to just 5 runners.

How a Rule 4 is applied on a betting exchange

Betting exchanges apply deductions in a slightly different manner to traditional bookmakers and sportsbooks. This is due to the unique way that a betting exchange works. Rule 4 deductions are still applied.

There are some key differences when applying a Rule 4 deduction on a betting exchange.

The first is that any lay bets that account for 2.5% of the market or less are voided. This means that backers of one or more horse, for example when you are applying the Betfair trading strategy of dutching, will benefit when a horse is withdrawn in this manner. But layers will not see their bets adjusted.

The Betfair betting exchange and other bettings exchanges, have to strike a price as which a horse is withdrawn. The industry, in general, will use the starting price or the price at the time of withdrawal by the stewards. But on betting exchanges, the price of a rule 4 is known in advance and is published on each runner and is known as the ‘reduction factor’.

In the example we have provided below, you can see the reduction factor was nearly 25% which more or less corresponds to decimal odds of 4.00. If this horse was withdrawn, then all bets elsewhere in this betting market would be adjusted down by 25%.

Withdrawn horses and false in-play markets

It’s important to understand that a runner may be withdrawn before a race starts at any moment. So this could be 24 hours before the start, or just as the race is about to start.

But it is also possible that the runner may be included in the ‘in-play’ part of the market despite the fact that it did not run! This will significantly distort the settlement of the market after the race has been run and if you are betting or Betfair trading inplay, you could be betting into a false market. Only when the race is completed will the rule 4 deduction be applied.

Betfair provide a full calculation on their website.

Checking to see if a horse has been withdrawn

If you see that you are missing some bets on your Betfair account, but Bet Angel has clearly shown they were placed. It’s quite likely that one horse or more was withdrawn.

If you want to check what happened in any one particular race the British Horse racing authority stewards will provide the information on their twitter feed.

The post Horse racing | Rule 4 deductions for withdrawals appeared first on Betfair trading blog | Expert advice from Professional Betfair trade.

Connecting to your VPS using an Android tablet

If you are using an Android tablet and Bet Angel via a VPS, a Virtual private server, then you will need to go through the following steps to connect to your VPS.

Connecting to a remote server

A virtual private server, or a remote server, is a fancy name for a PC which, rather than being on your desktop, is located in a datacentre. The server acts and behaves, in general, like a normal Windows PC and can be used as such.

You can install & run any software on the remote server, just like a local PC. You can also browse the internet and perform other functions on the remote server. Therefore, once connected, you can use it just like a normal PC.

There are some differences in terms of the way a remote server is managed, these are different to a normal PC. So it is recommended that, if you have never managed a remote server before, you leave the settings as you see them when you first use the server.

You need some RDP client software

To connect to a remote server, you need some client software to RDP to the server. This sounds complicated but is very simple, it’s just that the technology industry likes to use fancy names to describe simple processes.

To cut through the gobbledygook, you are the using the client software. You will connect to the server. You do this via some RDP software. ‘RDP’ stands for remote desktop protocol and this is the way you receive information from the server.

The way this works is rather clever. Rather than transferring large amounts of data between you are the server, the RDP client just uses image changes it can see on the server, compresses them and sends them to your software for you to see what is happening on the server. This means it looks and feels like you are using the server, but in fact it’s all taking place remotely. When you move your mouse, it moves on the server and so on.

Downloading some RDP software

There are lots of choices of remote desktop software for Android devices. If you go to the Google play store and search for ‘remote desktop’ you will see plenty. We recommend starting with Microsoft Remote Desktop as it’s easy to use, and free! We searched for “Remote Desktop” to bring up this list.

Download and install the software and following the remaining steps to connect to your server.

Connecting to your VPS

Start up your Microsoft remote desktop software then click on the ‘+’ sign in the top right hand corner and add a ‘Desktop’ session.

You may find that the software automatically tries to connect to a desktop nearby. If it does this it will displaying the ‘Desktop detection’ message. You will need to ignore this and any desktop sessions it finds locally. Just click on ‘Add manually’ to set up your VPS.

Adding your Server details

When you click on ‘Add manually’ you will be presented with a window where you can enter your server details. You will need to enter the details we have provided to you via email when you bought the VPS service.

You may be asked to add a user account. If you are asked to do this then this would add this as required using the information we have sent to you in a set up email. Normally your initial username would be ‘Administrator’ and the initial password will also be in your set up instructions which are sent to you.

You are nearly done!

If you have completed the above steps correctly then you will see a new window appear on the Microsoft remote desktop panel. You can enter more than one desktop if you wish and can use this main panel on the software to control more than one server.

Double clicking the icon of your server will show a screen that confirms that it is connecting to your server. After a few moments, you server desktop screen will appear and you can start using it.

The post Connecting to your VPS using an Android tablet appeared first on Betfair trading blog | Expert advice from Professional Betfair trade.