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Betfair Trading at Royal Ascot – Key information

Royal Ascot is a highlight of the flat turf season and the often the social season.

Well it usually is, but this year there isn’t a crowd, but it will still be a big highlight for the racing fraternity. We also have extra races and focus this year thanks to the global situation. Based on the attention other sports events have received out of lockdown, this should be an interesting meeting.

I’m lucky that Ascot racecourse is the nearest racecourse to me and I’ll often walk the heath. Due to my proximity I’ll often get invites to Ascot and often the Royal meeting as well.

In normal years, it would be I would decline any invitation to attend the event. I’m sure I will return to Ascot one day, but for the moment, I’d still rather be on this side of the desk during one of the busiest weeks of the year. You wouldn’t see a professional footballer work hard all season, only to decline the chance to play in the Champions League final. So missing any major meeting is not an option for me.

Major race meetings are still massive for me and make up a big part of my annual profit. So there is little chance I will skip one any time soon. Maybe, when my children get a bit more Betfair trading experience, I’ll enjoy it from the other side. But they not quite ready, yet!

Royal Ascot tips

Like most major meetings you get a feature race or two surrounded by ‘other stuff’. Some can be good quality, but some not. So it’s really important to understand which are the key races. Often you will find people try and trade a minor race like the feature and the whole market becomes harder to read. So carefully read the entire card to see what you are trading.

The first race of the card of the card is the hardest to trade as volume has a long time to build up. You also have the problem that nothing has been proven at this point. Going is assumed, which horses and jockeys are at the top of their game isn’t proved, so it’s probably the hardest to judge. Things gradually improve as the week marches on.

From a daily perspective Ascot usually gets off to a bang on Tuesday, so be well prepared. For more insight watch the video at the top of this blog post and also the Trading Ascot videos on the Bet Angel Academy. Quality will build during the week and peak on the Friday, Saturday can be a bit of a let down and often trades just like any other meeting you would expect on a Saturday.

You usually get the added bonus of lots of drunk people places bets on horses because they like the name! But seriously, this is typically a major component of the meeting and makes a valuable contribution. So it will be really interesting to see how this plays out this year. We have already seen the impact of crowds on football, but what will 300,000 missing punters have on Ascot. It will be interesting to see if it has any impact.

Other factors to take into account his year are the reduced field sizes. This generally isn’t a good thing, but Ascot has expanded the number of races to try and compensate, but I generally love big fields. So this may impact my ability to pick off good results on these sorts of races.

The two-year-old races have been pushed back in the week, so that will make the week feel a bit different from normal as will the lower number of stall handlers. In all, I’m sure it will present as many opportunities as challenges. Typically we find that during a major football tournament interest in Ascot declines. But this year, of course, there is now no Euro 2020.

Last year Royal Ascot had matched bet turnover of £81.2m at post time. The biggest race turned over £5m and the average race matches about £1.2m. The non-feature races can turnover considerably less, so be aware of that. If you contrast Ascot with Cheltenham, Cheltenham matches an average of £4m a race. They feel very different to each other.

If you are interested in how my trading style changes on a large race, have a read of the following blog post: –

How I trade a major horse racing meeting

Royal Ascot Trading videos

I’ve prepared a video playlist discussing Ascot and how it trades, coverage of thinsg you may be interested in and finally some of the numbers that sit behind Royal Ascot.

Register for free at the Academy to watch the Royal Ascot playlist. It seems easier and more entertaining, to present the information this way, rather than a blog post. So I hope you will find it interesting, register here: –

https://online.betangelacademy.com/courses/betfair-trading-royal-ascot

Betfair trading forum

Our trading forum is the busiest out there and full of people who will be trading very large volumes through Ascot.

You can join in the conversation or just lurk and see what everybody is talking about. Like many others, I will chit chat in there and offer advice while trading every day. You can pick up on a few themes or ideas by reading the threads, or when something exciting is happening maybe join in the fun! Keeping an eye on the forum will give you a view on how each day is trading. Or why not check out some of the popular threads: –

https://www.betangel.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=21219

Automation

As you will know, Bet Angel can automate a wide range of tasks for you. We have lots of ready-made automation examples for you to edit and play with. This means you can improve your existing trading, or run something in the background while you focus on the job at hand.

You can find example templates on the forum, click on the link to view them: –

If you are looking at all types of automation across different sports you can view nearly 200 example, by look at Automation – All files.

If you are interested in automation specifically related to Horse racing we have two sections. One for Horse racing – PreOff and one for Horse racing – InPlay.

Don’t forget to check out things that will signficantly improve your manual trading by using Trading alerts and Bet Angel – Servants.

Good luck!

Royal Ascot has been a key fixture in the racing calendar for a number of years. It’s high volume and interest across five days should provide plenty of opportunity and be a highlight of your trading year.

Bet Angel gives you the tools to make the very best out of this meeting, so make sure you utilise

We wish you the best of luck!

The post Betfair Trading at Royal Ascot – Key information appeared first on Betfair trading blog | Expert advice from Professional Betfair trade.

When it rains – Profitable Betfair trades can pour!

When you start trading you will probably will know that you need to predict some price movements in order to lock in a profit on the Betfair exchange. But how can you do this in a betting market, what drives the price movements on a betting exchange?

Sometimes the answers are quite straight forward, to explain how I’ve got a question for you…

What are we experts on in the UK…? We talk about it to strangers, to our friends and family – we watch it on news all of the time, everybody is an expert on this particular phenomenon.

Well, it’s the weather! So how does this defining knowledge help you can bring something to the markets to create a profitable trade?

Royal Ascot 2019

Weather conditions apply to a number of different sports, but I first started taking a bit more of an interest in the weather when I was looking at horse racing.

People often come out and say, ‘oh, you know, this horse doesn’t like this ground’. So I started looking at it more seriously at how the weather impacted the way that that could influence the price on a particular runner.

Sometimes it’s a bit ambiguous and horses like certain types of ground, but it’s not very clearly defined sometimes. So, you look at some of these and think, well, I’m not sure what information is contained in that or how it’s going to influence the price.

However, you can if you keep your eyes open you pick up on really good Betfair trading opportunities. One of those occurred at Royal Ascot in 2019. The rain was pounding down on Ascot racecourse!

Rainy Ascot 2019!

The interesting thing about this was it was really well telegraphed.

So if you were going to Royal Ascot that year, then you would have known exactly what the weather was likely to be, especially if you were planning on dressing up. Even without that incentive, it would have been clear it was going to be wet. There was extensive coverage of the weather in the run-up to the meeting.

When we look at the beginning of the week at Royal Ascot 2019, the weather was pretty poor and it looked as though that was going to continue for a couple of days before cheering up as we approached the end of the week. That brought into play a couple of characteristics for a specific race at Royal Ascot.

There was a horse called Sea of Class where the owners were debating whether this horse should run or not because of the weather conditions. Sea of Class didn’t like soft ground and it was almost certain to get some.

Sea of Class – trained by William Haggas

So this is your first tip. They’re basically saying, ‘I don’t want to run this horse on ground that is soft or getting worse.’ Basically, they want pretty good ground.

Typically, at most race horses, you will find they try and prepare the course conditions for what they were expecting. During the flat season, they want good ground, preferably, but it may sort of be good to firm or good to soft.

Also, one of the things that you’ll notice is that most of the courses in the UK aren’t completely straight, they undulate a fair bit. The topography of the course varies quite a bit. If you go and check out turf tracks, big meetings like Ascot will post up an image of the going of the entire course.

One of the characteristics of Ascot is that the Swinley bottom is lower than where the course is near the grandstand. That tends to retain water a bit more because obviously the water drains towards that.

So when you look at the going at Ascot, you will find that Swinley bottom tends to be softer than at the top of the course.

Obviously, depending upon the race, you may have a little bit of variability in terms of, whether it’s going to affect a horse or not. Clearly, a horse that doesn’t like the soft ground and has to run through Swinley bottom is probably going to struggle a bit more than a horse that can just run the straight mile.

So when Sea of Class was flagged up by William Haggas, there was a bit of uncertainty about whether this horse should be running on ground that wasn’t particularly suitable. This meant it was unlikely to get a large amount of money from the backers in the market. In fact, it would probably attract more than the odd lay bet.

Haggas eventually came out and said:

It was really well publicised and when we got to the Wednesday at Royal Ascot, one of the things that we saw occur was that the weather conditions were particularly bad. Now, because it was quite humid, there were sort of like heavy downpours popping up all over the place and at Ascot, quite a few of those.

So everybody thought that Sea of Class wasn’t going to run it became clear that it was unlikely that we would see Sea of Class running on this particular day. If the ground is unsuitable for your horse, you can withdraw it. So it was a bit of a surprise when Sea of Class declared to run in this particular race.

Rain, rain go away? Or give me profit again today!

So let me ask you this question.

If you have a horse that is running on ground that isn’t suitable for it, what do you think is going to happen to the price?

Do you…

1) think the price will improve? People will start backing it, thinking while the ground is unsuitable for this horse, therefore it’s got a better chance of winning.

2) think that the price will drift because of the going?

So the answer is fairly obvious. If the horse is unlikely to like the ground it is going to have less chance of winning and then the price will drift.

This was a slam dunk of a trade! Laying it pre race with the intention of doing a nice bit of swing trading and you could set yourself up for a nice profit come the start of the race. In fact you may not even need a bit of trading software on this trade. It was so easy!

Graph showing Sea of class at the time

This is because you could have done this trade the night before, or the morning of that particular market. You could have done it many different times, because the rain kept on coming at Ascot and the rain was awful.

I actually took some imagery of the conditions at the start of the race because I thought this will be an interesting point to illustrate in future years and as a reminder of how bad the conditions where. I also capture the official going and the going chnages.

The course on the day of the race

The conditions were pretty awful at Ascot, as a consequence, you would lay Sea of Class because it’s unlikely that the price is going to come in. You would expect the price, to just drift and drift and drift until it reaches a point at which people think that it’s a more accurate reflection on his chances of winning on the ground it doesn’t like.

Now, if you would have laid, Sea of Class when Haggis came out and said, ‘I don’t think he’s going to run’, what would have happened if he didn’t run was all of those bets would have been void. You wouldn’t have won or lost anything. So really, there was nothing to lose!

The conditions were poor and getting worse, the price was going to drift. Then if it did run, you’d probably see that the drift would accelerate and then you could exit your trade.

The most obvious trade didn’t need much skill

It was an interesting race to partake in. It was one of those rare occasions where everybody was flagging up all of the issues. I remember when it was declared that it was going to run and there were quite a few comments around saying, ‘I can’t believe they’re actually going to run it.’

But it made obvious sense in terms of the way that the market went. You knew that it didn’t like the ground, you knew that its chance was going to decline if it did run on ground as it was unsuitable. Therefore, the price was going to drift so you could do a nice little trade off the back of it.

“Weather is a great metaphor for life — sometimes it’s good, sometimes it’s bad, and there’s nothing much you can do about it but carry an umbrella or choose to dance in the rain!”

–Terri Guillemets

Weather has an impact in a number of different sports in a number different ways, like quote above wonderfully sums up!

Of course, everybody looks at the weather, everybody thinks they are an expert on the weather, but it’s the ability to interpret or outthink what’s likely to happen in a market beacuse of the weather forecast, which you’re probably going to be looking at anyhow.

But if you look at it and a little bit deeper detail, then you can probably pull off a decent trade.

The post When it rains – Profitable Betfair trades can pour! appeared first on Betfair trading blog | Expert advice from Professional Betfair trade.

Changing a password on a Windows server / VPS

Chaning the password on your Windows server

When you first receive your Windows VPS you will be given a default password. For security reasons, we suggest you immediately change your password to something new.

To do that, go through the following steps: –

Click on the Windows icon in the bottom left hand corner of your screen when you are logged into your server. Then locate the ‘Windows administrative tools’ and click on that function.

This will bring up a new window with a range of options available to you. You are intereted in locating and managing a user profile, so click on the computer management function in this list.

In turn, this will active another list of options and you are interested in locating and clicking on the ‘Local Users and Groups’. This will allow you to locate all the users that have access to your VPS.

Click on the ‘Local Users and Groups’ will display another list and you need to click on ‘Users’ on this list. This will then display to the right a list in the dialog box.

You will see the adminstrator account in this list and to change the password, simply right click on the ‘Administrator’ username to change the password. You can then close down all the open menus and return to using your Windows server / VPS.

Important notice

If you change the Administrator password and then forget it, there is no way to access your Windows server. You will need to apply to your provider to either do a password reset at the datacentre or re-image the server. So please make sure you make a note of the password.

Default administrator access on your server gives you, or somebody else with your password, full access to all your server functions. So treat this password with great care.

The post Changing a password on a Windows server / VPS appeared first on Betfair trading blog | Expert advice from Professional Betfair trade.

Connecting to your VPS using a Windows PC

If you are using an Windows PC and want to access Bet Angel via a VPS, a Virtual private server, then you will need to go through the following steps to connect to your VPS.

Connecting to a remote server

A virtual private server, or a remote server, is a fancy name for a PC which, rather than being on your desktop, is located in a datacentre. The server acts and behaves, in general, like a normal Windows PC and can be used as such.

You can install & run any software on the remote server, just like a local PC. You can also browse the internet and perform other functions on the remote server. Therefore, once connected you can use it just like a normal PC.

There are some differences in terms of the way a remote server is managed, these are different to a normal PC. So it is recommended that, if you have never managed a remote server before, you leave the settings as you see them when you first use the server.

You need some RDP client software

To connect to a remote server, you need some client software to RDP to the server. This sounds complicated but is very simple, it’s just that the technology industry likes to use fancy names to describe simple processes.

To cut through the gobbledygook, you are the using the client software. You will connect to the server, you do this via some RDP software. ‘RDP’ stands for remote desktop protocol and this is the way you receive information from the server.

The way this works is rather clever. Rather than transferring large amounts of data between you are the server, the RDP client just uses image changes it can see on the server, compresses them and sends them to your software for you to see what is happening on the server. This means it looks and feels like you are using the server, but in fact it’s all taking place remotely. When you move your mouse, it moves on the server and so on.

Using the Windows RDP software

There are lots of choices of remote desktop software but your Windows PC actually comes with all you need pre-installed. The quickest way to find it is to click on the WIndows icon on the start menu. You will find this on the bottom left of your screen.

Once you have clicked on it, start typing ‘Remote desktop connection’ and your PC will immediately locate the software for you. This detail in the image for you.

Connecting to your VPS

Once you have located the RDP software you need to connect to your server. Click on the remote desktop app and you will see it asking for your connection details.

Click on the show options drop down menu on the bottom left of this box.

Once you click the drop-down menu the box will expand to give you other options to connect to your VPS. You will need to put the IP address you have been supplied into the ‘Computer’ area on the form, the username ‘Administrator’ into the username area and we suggest you also tick, ‘Allow me to save credentials’.

Once these are completed correctly, just click ‘connect’ to connect to your server.

You are nearly done!

When your local computer starts connecting to the server you will see a dialog box confirming that it is trying to establish a connection to the remote server.

When your computer establishes a connection to the server it will confirm that you are connected and asked you for your password. Your password would have been supplied to you via an email or other means. Enter your password in the appropiate area, we also recommend click on the ‘Remember me’ button, but this optional. Finally click on the OK button.

Approving the server certificate

When you connect to a new server you will automatically get a warning message. This looks like a stark warning, but what it is trying to tell you is that it doesn’t recognise your server and is it OK to proceed? So, because its a server under your control, you should tick to accept that it’s ok to connect to that computer in future and click the ‘Yes’ button.

One your have followed these steps, you should now be connected to the server, enjoy!

The post Connecting to your VPS using a Windows PC appeared first on Betfair trading blog | Expert advice from Professional Betfair trade.