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Political betting | Next US president | Trump vs Biden

The US presidential market is that is a market I’ve followed since 2004. Because I’ve got data going back since 2004, I’ve always taken an interest in it. But I’ve only been actively trading it in recent years.

2008 was the first market but my activity has grown as has the market! In 2016 the matched bet turnover was just short of an astonishing £200 million. That was a record individual market on the Betfair betting exchange.

That was until this year’s market. The 2020 market will comprehensively smashed that amount having exceeded the entire amount traded in 2016, even before election night.

Profiting from early market activity

The interesting thing about these markets is that initially there’s no model that you can particularly use to price it. People will try to form an opinion around how each candidate is polling, but you can’t specifically say, it’s going to be ‘this’ price as polls are typically unreliable.

While this quote was on market research, the same can applying to Political betting and research when polling. ‘people don’t think how they feel, they don’t say what they think, and they don’t do what they say’. Other than that, I believe all stuff read on polls.

Trading a political market early on in a politics market, it’s really just a case of trading news flow. As one piece of news comes out on one side, prices will go up and down in response. In 2016, when Trump was making all of these errors and interesting remarks about his relationship with women, there was plenty of opportunity.

Curiously was not to lay him because the price would react dramatically at that point and go flying out. I was actually backing him at these points, catching the best price. Because it was almost inevitable that some bad news about Clinton would follow. The price on Trump would come back in, at which point I’d reverse my position and just wait for the next news story.

So if you look at the chart from that election, the chart was going flying around all of the time and it provided the opportunity to trade in and out consistently. 

Media role in forming opinion

Modern media is such that they are always looking for ‘eyeballs’, so even the most modest of stories can get sensationalised.

It’s tough to find any truly objective view on an election and politics in general. All types of media exhibit some bias or another and some outlets are just plain biased. I’ve seen many Politcal pundits accidentally throw themselves under a bus with heavily skew appraisal of the markets and odds.

Just like when you are betting on football, you probably shouldn’t bet on your team. But in Politics, it takes a lot of effort to detached yourself from the arguments. But doing so, is very profitable.

As a story breaks and proliferates around social media the market will respond then eventually settle again as the story dissipates. You just have to jump in and out on on good and bad news.

Political betting on Election night

When we come to election night, you will be able to see some of the dialogue that going on in the early hours of the morning. You can also go back and look at previous elections for clues as to how the market will trade.

The interesting thing about the US election is that it’s held on a continent over four times zones. I went back and looked at how the votes came in state by state and how they were portioned to try and look for patterns. When the votes came in, as you go from east to West Coast, then there would be a certain pattern of activity that would tend to develop.

You tend to find in recent years that on the East Coast, there could be a number of different types of results coming in there. But as you move to the Midwest, it’s predominantly Republican. Then as we move to the West Coast, it’s predominantly Democrat.

You begin to get a feeling of where the activity was going to go and how things were going to pan out, just by looking at that and comparing against previous elections. Make sure you read up on the electoral college before making any assumptions. A popular vote does not a president make.

I’ve found this really useful spreadsheet for calculating the outcome of the overall market using data and assumptions from the electoral college, this should help you signficantly.

The best way to rationalise these markets is to imagine a football match and a team being up 1-0 with two states to go. Hopefully, that will give you a picture on how you would trade the night when results are declared.

In 2016 when Trump started to get some of those key states on the East Coast, you could tell that, in fact, there probably weren’t going to be enough left by the time it went through the Midwest and out to the West Coast for Clinton to win. That meant that you had had the opportunity to trade Trump on the basis he would almost certainly shorten or vice versa.

Watch the video on this blog post for more information as to how the night played out and how that affected the odds.

The big difference in 2020

There are a number of differences in 2020.

Incumbents have to defend a track record to get re-elected, which is slightly harder than attacking a sitting candidate. But covid-19 has thrown a spanner in the works meaning that many will be casting postal votes in advance of normal polling methods. It’s quite likely this will be somewhat contentious, as people who may not traditionally vote will vote. Their demographics are somewhat different which may influence the final outcome.

But also you shouldn’t forget the Floridian farce of the 2000 election. You can guess that if there are any close votes anywhere, things get very contentious. Ultimately it came down to 537 votes of six million cast in Florida and individual ballots were being scrutinised for errors and checked for validity. In the event of a close vote this year, things could get very messy.

Ultimately, it make take longer for the final vote to be counted and rubberstamped. So a twist in the tail of the election may be the big story this year. This could make it a monster market to trade.

Overall, I’ve noticed an inherent bias when it comes to voters declaring their support for right learning politicians. Social responsibility is a given in modern society I think (hope?), but voters also feel that people should take personal responsibility for their decisions. So that tends to skew polling to the left against the actual outcome.

With Biden polling well and at short odds, I’ll spend election night scanning to see if that is a valid view or not. Never underestimate how much personal freedom and liberaty are essential to the American way.

The post Political betting | Next US president | Trump vs Biden appeared first on Betfair trading blog | Expert advice from Professional Betfair trade.

Cash-out or Hedge Profit Across Multiple Markets

Using Bet Angel, you can do some things that are simply not possible or other Betfair trading software or on the Betfair website itself.

You may want to do this as some Betfair trading strategies can involve trading multiple markets at the same time, this is most commonly done when trading on football markets.

For example, your strategy could involve taking positions in both the Match Odds and Correct Score markets with the intention of cashing out / Greening up if the combined profit (or loss) from them, when the profit on both reaches your specified amount.

With Bet Angels Advanced Automation you can do just that and green up across multiple markets in an event when a overall target profit is reached using a simple rules file either on its own or if you already have an automated statergy you could add the rules straight into to your existing automation file.

Creating the automation

Creating the Rules File

To do this you need two identical automation files, each will use a ‘Set/Modify Stored Value’ rule to continually trigger on and store the profits from both markets, another rule to add the two profit figures together and when your target amount is a third rule will green up your positions.

Creating the Rules

The first rule needed is a ‘Set/Modify Stored Value, this can be set to trigger unlimited times and re-arm every refresh (so it always has the most up to date profit figure).

Then on the Stored Value tab create a Stored Value (I’ve named this profit1) and store the value of the ‘Markets Green All Profit (current price) for the ‘Event’.

That’s the first rule done, that’s basically storing your green up figure every refresh for whichever market you apply this rule to.

The second rule is another ‘Set/Modify Stored Value’ rule, configured exactly the same as the first on the General tab.

On the Stored Value tab this time we need to create a Stored Value (I’ve named total), this going to add the stored value named ‘profit1’ to the stored value named ‘profit2’.

(Don’t worry we haven’t made the profit2 stored value yet but will get to that shortly).

Each time that rule triggers its adding together the two stored values to create a third stored value named ‘total’.

The last rule needed is a ‘Green All Selections’ rule, its up to you wat trigger times you use this will largely depend on the market’s you intend to use it on, as I’ll be using this on in-play football markets I’ve set it to trigger 3 times re-arming every 15 seconds (to allow for the in-play delay).

This rule just needs a Stored Value condition, to test if the Stored Value named ‘total’ is greater than a specified amount, for this example I’m using £20.

That’s the file for one market done, this can now be saved (I’ve called mine combined profit 1).

We now need to make an identical file with a small change, the easiest way to do this is to click the ‘Disk+’ icon and when the popup window appears re-save the file this time with a different name (ie, combined Profit 2).

You now have two identical files, all you need to do now is select the ‘Store Profits 1’ rule (or whatever you named it – and change this to something else ie, Store Profits 2) then go onto the Stored Value tab and changed the stored value name (I’ve changed mine to Profit2).

Remember earlier we created a rule that added Profit1 to Profit2 – this is that profit 2 rule now created.

The rest of the files can be left alone, you just need to click the disk icon (not disk+) to save it and the files are ready to use.

All you need to do now is apply them to your chosen markets from a match, it doesn’t matter which rules file is applied to a particular market, just as long as you have one of each applied to the markets from a fixture as shown in the image below.

You can now bet/trade those markets as normal knowing that if a combined profit of £20 (or whatever amount you specified) is reached across both markets Bet Angel will green up for you.

Or if you already have automation files you use on multiple markets in an event you may prefere to copy the rules into your existing files, this can be done with 2-3 clicks, for more details please the following blog .

Oven Ready – Automation files

I would encourage anyone wanting some rules files like these to try and make it themselves first following the steps above, but if you are still struggling you can download both files from the following page on the Bet Angel Forum

The post Cash-out or Hedge Profit Across Multiple Markets appeared first on Betfair trading blog | Expert advice from Professional Betfair trade.

Trading the Breeders Cup & Melbourne Cup

We are now into November and that can only mean one thing. Dark evenings, wind rain, small fields and a lack of quality horse racing for Betfair trading. But, like trading itself, it really depends where you are looking for the opportunity.

Opportunity aplenty

If you are new to Betfair trading and not trading full time, or perhaps doing matched betting and about to start trading.  Your focus may be just UK sports. But you may not be aware that on the other side of the world at the moment there are some group horse racing markets at this time of the year. The Melbourne Cup Carnival starts this weekend and the Spring Carnival Season in Australia brings many highlights, but also we have the Breeders Cup in North America. Both meetings attract international horses and jockey’s to compete for big prize money.

The interesting thing about these races is they are tradable, but to understand how. Let me take you back to when I first discovered the Melbourne Cup carnival.

How I accidentally learnt to trade Australian racing markets

The problem you have during this period is that Melbourne cup day is on a Tuesday at 4 am UK time! For a few years I, figured out that it would be a good opportunity to try and trade it, but getting up in the middle of the night is not easy. Remaining focused is not easy in the middle of the night and trading markets that you don’t know anything about are not easy either.

I failed for a couple of years when I first tried to trade this meeting and it took a stroke of luck to get me on the right path. I injured my arm one year and I couldn’t sleep because I couldn’t find a useful position to rest it, so I started wandering around the house. It was then I thought I know, let’s fire up the PC and see what’s going on and there was some Australian racing on. I figured out that the sport was the same as in the UK, the sports trading markets would probably be the same and therefore the price movement. So I started messing around on Australian Racing and finally started to make it work.

The Melbourne Cup Carnival

The Melbourne Cup carnival at Flemington is the highlight of the racing calendar and one of the biggest meetings. A big Melbourne cup field will greet you on the day as well as a bumper crowd, all urging on their selection to win the Melbourne cup. This race is commonly known as the race that stops a nation, because many people in New Zealand, as well as Australia, pause to watch the races. It was such a big horse race, that it became a renewed focus for me.

The Melbourne Cup meeting takes place on Saturday, Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday, so you get four big days, of which the highlight is Tuesday and there are plenty of races to trade. However, Flemington can start at midnight / 1 am and finishes early hours in the morning UK time so if you’re not a night/morning person then it’s difficult to do much with it. The Melbourne Cup has a tradition for its turnover totals to be running into the millions, so it is certainly a tradable meeting.

Over the years I began to get more and more confident that I could get something out of it. So I’ve traditionally brought a high level of focus to this particular week in the year for a number of years now. I know that it is something that I can do, but it takes a lot of extra effort to be able to do. But life seems to reward such endeavour. If you can’t commit to a long session, then a sensible way to do this is catching the back end of the card at 6 am, that may be a less painful way to have a look at some of the markets.

So while there isn’t much going on in the UK, there is something going on in Australia. However the markets do trade slightly differently so if you are doing something in the UK and you want to try to in Australia, you might not be able to do that, so please bear that in mind.

The Breeders Cup

Before I started trading on Betfair, the only US racing I had ever heard about was the Kentucky Derby. I soon learnt however about The Breeders Cup World Championships and one thing I learnt was that it moves around a bit. Not the market itself, although it does, of course, it’s the location that moves. It has been in Santa Anita in Los Angeles on a number of occasions.

One year, due to my interest in adventures in the world of sports, I decided to go to Santa Anita. I wasn’t sure where it was, so I thought I would drive there. (It turns out that it’s not that far from Bet Fair HQ in Los Angeles). I drove up to Santa Anita, parked up and walked towards the gate where I was challenged by security. However, as soon as I opened my mouth and spoke a bit of English, he just assumed that I was something to do with the horses, so I went straight in! Here I was, the day before the championship starts and I gain free access to roam around Santa Anita. It was hilarious! I got to see every single part of the entire park from the stables to the commentary box.

This year we are on the East coast, so a more UK friendly time and that should make it more tradeable.

Masochists of the world unite

When the Breeders Cup race takes place, you’ve got this situation where the UK racing finishes on Friday evening and intermixes with the first day of the Breeders Cup. Then Australian racing starts up, taking place in the early hours of Saturday morning. Then when that finishes, there is a small gap and the UK racing starts again, and then that dovetails into the Breeders Cup on Saturday where all the real action takes place.

If you’re totally mad you can trade all of the above without getting any sleep. You won’t be surprised to know that I’ve done it and I will probably do it again this year (maybe we should ask for it to be a public holiday)! I’ve always felt it is worth it because as we head into the winter the racing calendar, things get a little bit quieter. So it’s quite nice to be able to get stuck into some racing before we have to wait for some of the better-quality jumps racing that will get underway before long.

I’ve used this as a marker in recent years to kick-start  Q4 and it’s been a useful experience for me. In the past turnover was pretty high on these meetings and plenty of things going on. If you’re mad like me, then it’s probably worth a look but please don’t expect it to act exactly the same as it would in the UK.

If you are interested in horse racing trading, during November markets for free, why not download a copy of Bet Angel Trading Software where you can trade on Betfair: –

https://www.betangel.com/trader/compare.php

The post Trading the Breeders Cup & Melbourne Cup appeared first on Betfair trading blog | Expert advice from Professional Betfair trade.

Bet Angel – Cash-out at much better Prices

Betfair Cash out, only better!

Hegding, Greening, Cash-out, whatever you want to call the process of spreading a profit across a market is great. But lets make it better, let’s squeeze additional profit out of the market.

If you are familiar with the cash out button on Betfair you will know that if your cash out is successful it will magically spread your profit across the field regardless of the result. One click of that cash out icon and you can lock in a profit.

Cash out was actually an invention of the Betfair trading community back in the really early days when nobody even knew about exchanges. Hedging your position was a simple calculation and process and was later adopted by Betfair and other bookmakers.

Originally we called it ‘greening up’ as this adjective describe what you would see on your Betfair screen. Rather than a profit or loss, you would see a whole P&L of green. But now people recognise it as the process of deciding to cash out your bet. For this reason, you will see it referred to as ‘greening up’.

If you use the Betfair one-click trading screen a big limitation, you’ll notice on both the Betfair website and in other trading software is only having the ability to see and green up your trade at the current price.

With Bet Angel that’s not a problem, it gives you all the tools and options you need to create your own unique custom columns on the one-click screen to do practically anything you want and this includes creating your own custom columns to display both your closing trade and greening profit (or loss) at any price for individual selections or the whole market.

Setting up on Bet Angel

Let’s walk you through how to create and set up custom columns to both display the Reverse Green All Profit, the Reverse Green Profit for individual selections, and Reverse Green Price 10 ticks away for individual selections. But before going any further if you are unsure what ‘Reverse Greening’ and what the benefits are please see this post on the Bet Angel Forum for a detailed explanation.

Once you are familiar with this very straight forward process there is nothing to stop you creating custom columns to display and close/green up your trades at several prices. In effect, if you had the screen space, you could create a horizontal ladder giving you a major advantage over others using the one-click interface needing to wait for the odds trade at a price before submitting the order and then hoping they are quick enough to still get matched.

Example Trade

As you can see in the image below i’ve already opened a position on the top two runners in this market and could now click the figure shown in the regular ‘Trade Profit’ column to green all open trades by taking the profit at the current price of £5.47

However, thanks to the ability to create my own custom columns. I now have the option of greening all trades using the reverse prices by clicking on any of the figures displayed in the ‘Reverse Green All’ column and offering my bets to the market.

If both orders get matched I’ll secure a profit of £9.55 (nearly double that of just taking the current green up/trade profit price), and it will almost always be much more when doing this during in-play markets where there is often several ticks and more between the current and reverse prices.

Another option I have is to I just exit one of my trades by greening up at the reverse greening price ie, to green up the trade on just the second runner I could click the ‘Reverse Green Selection’ button and that will submit my green up bet at the reverse price on only that selection which as you can see in the image below if matched will secure a £5.71p profit.

For illustration purposes i’ve also included an image of the ladders for these two selections just so you can see how the reverse green bet on the second selection would appear.

Reverse Green at ANY Price

As I indicated at the start of this blog, you can go even further than that with Bet Angels fully customisable One-Click trading screen and create custom columns to display your P/L and place reverse greening bets at any price you want.

You might want to add a column to place reverse greening bets at a specific percentage or number of ticks away from the current price, allowing you to get your bets in the market ready and waiting to be matched ahead of others just as you can do on the ladder screen.

In the image below I’ve now added a custom column to place ‘Reverse Green’ bets at 10 ticks outside the current price, this is currently showing i’d make £23.44 if I were to click it now and submit the bet and the price then moves out to 6.4 and gets matched. Again I’ve used a ladder on the right for illustation purposes so you can see how/where this bet would appear on the ladder.

NB, this allows in-play traders using the one-click trading screen to increase thier chances of being matched by having thier greening bets already in the market waiting, rather than clicking the ‘trade profit’ button to submit the bet once the price you want is reached only to find that price no longer exsists by the time the in-play bet delay has passed and your order actually reaches the market.

Setting up ‘Reverse Greening Columns’

Setting this type of custom column up requires the combining of three of Bet Angel features,

  1. A rules file to continually store the value of your P/L’s in real time at your desired prices (ie, 10 ticks, 15 ticks or 20%, 50% etc)
  2. A servant to submit the bets
  3. The custom column/s to display the stored values of your P/L and submit the bet when clicked.
    Don’t worry if it sounds complicated, everything you need has already been set-up and created for you, all you need to do is follow the instructions below and download the files and import them into your Bet Angel – you can then edit, tweak and duplicate them any way you want if you want something slightly different to exactly what you see in this example.

Creating a Rules File

The first thing you need is a rules file to look up and store your P/L continually. This file then needs to be applied to the markets in Guardian each day.

For this example I’ve created a rules file that will store the value of the Reverse Green price for the market, the Reverse Green price for each selection and the Reverse Green price +10 ticks for each selection into Stored Value History Lists (Later the custom columns will look up the P/L stored values held in these three history lists and display them to you).

You can download this ready-made ‘Reverse Green History List.baf’ rules file from midway down the following post on the Bet Angel Forum, once you have downloaded and imported the file into your Bet Angel feel free to edit and make any changes you might want.

The ability to Store Values in History Lists were added to Bet Angel in V1.55, for more details on them please see this post from the Bet Angel forum.

Then all you need to do then is add your markets to Guardian each day and apply that rules file to them. If you are already using automation then there is nothing to stop you adding the rules to your exsisting file, you can use Bet Angels rule copy tool to do this quickly and easily with just a few clicks, this blog explains how to use it if you’ve never used it before.

Servants

To submit the greening orders you’ll need to create a basic servant to place the bet, the servant/s can then be assigned to a custom column on your one-click screen so that when you to click that column/button it will start the servant and place the reverse greening bet.


For a detailed post on how to assign a Servant to a custom column on your one-click trading screen please see this post

To replicate all the ‘Reverse Greening’ custom columns you see in the image at the top of this post you will need three servants, these have all been created for you and can be downloaded from midway down the same forum post as the rules file above. I’ve named the servants ‘Reverse Green All.baf’, ‘ASC Reverse Green Selection.baf’ and ‘ASC Reverse Gren Sel +10 Ticks.baf’.

Once you have downloaded the servant/s you want to udse just click on the ‘Bellboy’ icon on your main Bet Angel screen and import them into your servant manager.

Creating the Custom Columns

Now it’s time to create your custom columns, these need to do a duel job of displaying the P/L from the rules file and also start the servants to submit the bets when clicked. To create your custom columns go to your one click screen and click ‘settings’ and then ‘Edit Custom’ columns.

When the custom colum editor window opens select ‘Custom Column 1’, as your ‘column to edit’ or whatever your first spare column is if you’ve already made some columns previoustly. Then enter the information as shown below, this first column will start the ‘Reverse Green All’ servant and display the Stored Value name ‘reversegreenmarket’ (ie, your reverse green p/l value)

Once you’ve done that click ‘Save’ at the bottom and then select another column to edit and this time enter the following information to create a column to start the ‘Reverse Green Selection’ servant and display the stored value named ‘reversegreenselection’ (ie, your reverse green p/l for each individual selection).

Then click ‘Save’ again and if you want to add the reverse green +10 ticks select another column to edit and enter the following information.

Once you’ve finished creating your columns and closed the ‘custom column editor’ window the next step is select those columns to display on your one-click screen. To do this while still on your one-click screen click the icon which looks like a calandar.

and select your newly created custom columns.

You are now ready to go, the last thing to do is click the Disc+ icon on your one-click screen as highlighted in the image below and save your grid layout.

All you need to do now is add your markets to Guardian each day and apply the reverse green history lists.baf rules file you downloaded from above.
Then whenever you open a trade you’ll see your ‘Reverse Greening’ profits/losses and be able to click them to exit and green up your trades in your newly created columns.

The post Bet Angel – Cash-out at much better Prices appeared first on Betfair trading blog | Expert advice from Professional Betfair trade.