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Betfair Trading – Scalping – Explained Part 3/3

It this post I’ll look at another tool within Bet Angel which is handy for scalping and also a slightly different method of scalping than what’s been shown earlier in Part 1 and Part 2 of this series.

In the previous blogs of this Basic Betfair Scalping series we looked first at the ‘Make Market’ button then using ‘offset bet with greening’. Both these methods involved placing both bets at the same time at one tick increments on the betting exchange. This time we are going to look at a Scalping method that requires only placing one bet and having Bet Angel place the other – only once it has been fully matched.

The feature we are going to use this time is the ‘Fill or Kill’ option which is located within the ‘Global Settings’ area discussed in the last blog. Once enabled Fill or kill works quite simply, you set the number of seconds then when you place a bet if its matched (filled) great, but if it’s not matched within the number of seconds you’ve specified then it automatically cancelled (Killed) for you by the software.

Used in conjunction with ‘offsetting’ this allows you to place an opening bet the offset bet ONLY gets placed by the scalping software when it is filled (matched). This enables you to do a different type of scalping that we’ve looked at so far.

So in this blog, we’ll be looking at a method known as ‘Directional Scalping’. You can do this in any betting market, but we are specifically looking at horse racing and football matches in these examples.

‘Directional Scalping’

As the name suggests ‘Directional Scalping’ is where you look to scalp something as it’s price moves along in one direction rather than looking for something that is stable in a tight odds range. Also instead of placing both bets at the same time, this method works better if you place one bet wait for it to be filled then have the software place the offset bet in the direction the price is moving.

So depending on which way the price is moving would depend on whether your opening bet would be a back or lay bet. If the price is moving downwards (shortening) you’d be looking to back first, if it was moving upwards (drifting) you’d be looking to lay first. The set up used here is the same ‘offset with greening’ 1 tick as the previous post but this time we going to use the ‘Fill or Kill’ option and set it to 10 secs.

When ‘Directional Scalping’ its best done using the ladder screen as you ll have a better overview of the market for this style of trading.

The first thing you need to do is find a selection that is trending gently in one direction or another, you don’t want something that’s moving too sharply as these can snap back at any moment and possibly leave you looking at several ticks loss.

By finding something that has a more gentle trend if the price does start to reverse after matching the opening bet (but before your offset is matched) then you should have plenty of time to exit and take a small 2-3 tick loss before beginning the process again if the situation allows.

Executing a Directional Scalp

In this example, we are looking at horse racing. Don’t forget that while we are looking for a direction, we are looking for high liquidity markets as well.

Liquidity is a key part of this trading strategy as we will only get small profits from small price movements. This means we want our orders to get matched quickly. In these images, we are in practice mode, but liquidity is essential if you are using real money.

In the image below we can see the 3rd runner ‘Page of Wands’ has been steadily shortening in price all day, you can see this from the Betfair chart and that its isn’t trapped in any trading range but is instead continuing on a downward trend so is perfect for Directional Scalping.

As it continues to shorten by offering a back bet at the best reverse price first if the price moves before its matched the bet will be killed after 10 secs with no harm done and another bet can then be placed if there is still an opportunity. We are using small stakes that match the available money being matched or offered in the market.

*If it was gently drifting you would be looking to offer a lay bet first and if matched have the back bet offset*

In the next image below, you will see the opening bet was matched and Bet Angel has now placed the ‘offset bet with greening’ 1 tick lower by placing a lay bet automatically at a potential profit.

Hopefully, this will be matched quickly and that’s the directional scalp complete, as above if the selection looks like it’s continuing to shorten the process can be repeated or if you see a similar trend emerge on another selection, each time looking to get in and out as fast as possible picking up another tick profit every time both sides are successfully matched.

You can open a trade at the current back or lay price. You just need to ‘lean’ on the general trend on the Betfair exchange.

As I detailed in the previous blog if it looks like the price is about to reverse and not match your offset bet you can click on the ‘P/L’ figure in the trade profit column, you can see in the image above I could do this now by clicking the ‘£0.00’ figure to scratch the trade and exiting the trade zero profit or loss.

Directional Scalping Football Markets

This type of scalping can be very effective on in-play football markets but timing is very critical.

The price will move in one direction as the time decays until a major event like a goal or sending off, but there are periods of time within a match when the speed of the price move increases/decreases, so you’re looking for a period when the price is actively moving but also you should be watching the match and looking for times when a goal is looking less likely before opening a trade.

Summary

Hopefully these blogs have given you insight and will help you get started with Scalping using Bet Angel. There are of course tons more tools and ways to Scalp the markets with Bet Angel so I may follow this up with another series of more advanced techniques including semi and fully automated methods.

The post Betfair Trading – Scalping – Explained Part 3/3 appeared first on Betfair trading blog | Expert advice from Professional Betfair trade.

Football Trading, using statistics & analytics

When you are Betfair football trading, like most markets, you are looking for an edge. Whatever Betfair football trading strategy you are using, getting a deeper insight into how a match could play out and how those prices move, will obviously benefit you significantly in your quest for a Sunseeker motor cruiser or whatever chattels you desire!

Betfair trading on football means you are predominately looking at key types of price movement, time decay and when a goal is scored. It could be that you are trading the 2.5 goals markets or match odds, or perhaps the correct scores markets. To be profitable longer-term at sports trading requires that you know something that somebody else doesn’t. So gathering data and knowledge on a match can be a critical path on that road.

Back in the late eighties and early nineties when I was trying to win the football pools, nobody really understood what was going through my head. But trying to know something that others didn’t was ultimately my aim. But it was a hard slog!

The era of ‘Not interested

When I got my hands on my first home computer I wanted to learn to code. So I set about learning and to do so I started creating a database of football matches. After a bit of time, I began to work through the odds on things happening, why and how I could use it to forecast the chance of winning a football match.

I had an ulterior motive though, I wanted to win the football pools. It was the only bit of gambling I was exposed to back then and it seemed like a good target. I would achieve this a few years later, but that’s another story!

I really started to get into all the statistical side of football matches. I wrote to a football magazine and explaining to them how I’d carefully mapped out what happens during a match. I carefully laid out an extensive document talking about how the time of the goal influences the outcome of a match and how a red card can significantly alter that match outcome. It included a summary of key statistics surrounding a football match and some interesting insight into how I felt individual events would affect the outcome of the match and the chance of a draw.

I remember receiving a letter back from the editor of the magazine, his comments were along the lines of “I have no idea why anybody would be interested in this sort of stuff”. I sort of understood that as it was rather arcane and obscure, but to me it was very interesting.

It just seemed that at that moment in time it wasn’t very interesting to anybody else! I actually archived all the work I did around this era, not knowing that I may use it in the future. It just seemed a waste to put it in the bin.

Football analytics in the modern age

Wind forward to today though and there are thousands of blogs, articles and other information surrounding the mechanics of how football matches played out. And now millions being spent a year by football clubs to get a tiny edge against all of their rivals. I’m guessing I was just a little ahead of my time and perhaps, if I had more perseverance as a youngster, I may have made some of these ideas stick.

The interesting thing now about football analytics, from a trading perspective, is that there is now a plethora of information available on each individual match. This data could be before the matches started or as the match is under-way and this gives us significant insight that I couldn’t have dreamt of a few years ago.

Now, of course, people are trying to give insight from a number of perspectives but the practical upshot from a trading perspective is that the data available is very high quality and can have pretty profound implications for the way in which you choose to trade a match.

It’s amazing how deep some of the analysis goes and how a lot of people don’t realise the value of some of the analysis that they are doing. It can give valuable insight into certain aspects of a match or other team or of a player, or many other aspects.

The fact that most of its available for free, in the hope that people may place a bet, is very helpful. I’ve often considered offering a detailed analysis of individual matches. But to be honest, a lot of the information is out there is more than adequate and sufficient to be able to get good insight as to what’s actually happening during the match. It’s much better content, generated real-time, than I could offer on my own on top of all my other commitments.

I’ll often browse WhoScored, InfoGol, SoccerStats, SofaScore, UnderStat to name a few sites among many, to get some insight. It may be worth me elaborating at some point if you are interested. Leave a comment on the blog if you are interested in what I’m looking for. Some of the Fantasy football sites, accidentally, give away good information. Specifically, if you are looking at the impact of player injuries. There is a plethora of good sites to choose from.

We have done a fair bit of work on Bet Angel though. Aside from improving basic one click betting functions to display additional information from a football match, we have added things like coupons to allow you to display markets next to each other. This should help you get the best out of any statistics you are looking at and act on them quickly from a trading perspective.

But, given my background in Football analytics and market pricing, it shouldn’t really be surprising that rather than just creating another bit of trading software, I added in Soccer Mystic, which is focused around what happens if a teams scores, or doesn’t as the case may be. If you are developing any Betfair trading strategy on football, even basic ones like lay the draw, it can help you understand what will happen at key points within the football match.

The funny thing is, from a broader perspective, as more information becomes available, especially to football individual teams, it becomes less valuable.

Analytics, the pop concert and the drunk

A few years ago, by a very fortuitous route, I found myself in a professional football club offering advice on using analytics in a game. I was fortunate enough to go through a rapid learning curve in terms of what is out there and how clubs are using it at a professional level. My conclusion, it’s all great, but only if you use something that others are not using. Like trading, you need to find a niche.

Imagine going to a music festival to watch a band and the guy in front of you stands on his tiptoes to get a better view. In turn you will stand in your tiptoes to improve your view and that forces the person behind you to stand on their tiptoes. This is the situation that a lot of clubs find themselves in currently. They feel the need to get involved in analytics but the benefit of doing so is only relative to what other teams are doing. And of course, all the other teams are now doing analytics and that nullifies the effect of getting good analytics. It becomes a battle of who has the best analytics or ideas.

Football analytics, statistics and lampposts

I’ve been involved in advising on the use of analytics and often I’m questioned why I should be offering advice. But of course, I have a very good answer, I don’t have a degree in statistics.

You would think that would work against me, but it tends to work very well. This is because I can see things very clearly and in ways that others perhaps can’t perceive. I’m not looking for the obvious or to get peer-reviewed. The best qualification I have of being able to advise in this manner is quite simple. If you’re betting or trading using information and its profitable, you definitely know more than other people do. That’s valuable.

When I go back to the start of my trading career I started on football markets a I knew them so well. But it would take some time to do a proper analysis. In this modern era, there is just so much quality information, especially in-play. There is loads of really detailed insight within the grasp of pretty much everybody.

So my advice to you would be yes, use football analytics. But don’t use them like a drunk uses a lamppost, for support rather than illumination!

The post Football Trading, using statistics & analytics appeared first on Betfair trading blog | Expert advice from Professional Betfair trade.

Betfair trading software for an Apple Mac

We often get queries on whether you can use Bet Angel or any Betfair trading software on a Mac or an iPhone or an Android tablet or pretty much any smartphone or device. I have posted up some information in the forum and on YouTube. But I thought I would give a full explanation here so it’s easy to find.

Bet Angel is written specifically for a Microsoft Windows platform, but there are many ways in which you can run in on another platform such as iOS on a Mac or even an Apple iPhone. Here are some options as to how you can do this: –

Run ‘Bootcamp’ and install windows on your Mac

In your Mac there is a utility you can find via finder called ‘Bootcamp’.

Search for ‘bootcamp’ and you locate the ‘Boot camp assistant’. If you run this app it will let you install Windows, Bootcamp will tell you which version you need. You will need to buy a Windows license, but they are pretty cheap nowadays. Drop a note to support if you want help locating an official license.

With Bootcamp up and running the next time you start up, your Mac or Macbook will prompt you to ask which operating system you wish to run. You can only use one or the other operating system, you can’t intermingle them. However. it is easy to switch between them by rebooting or using the Bootcamp app in the taskbar. If you want to look cool and trendy with my Mac, but also use it as a Windows machine when needed, this is the way you would do it.

If you don’t feel confident doing this the Apple stores will actually do it for you as long as you can bring in a windows license of some sort. You can order them online and you just need the license code because the operating system can be downloaded.

Use ‘Virtual box’ – https://www.virtualbox.org/

Virtual box is free emulator software that works by installing a piece of software that sits onto your existing Mac OS to allow you to run other operating systems. The advantage of this is that you can run a different operating system from right on your Mac and flick between that and your other Mac applications. There is no need to choose, you can just flick backwards and forwards.

 The downside of this method is that your performance may suffer a little. This is because you are running two operating systems on one machine, that’s bound to have a bit of an impact.

Use ‘Parallels’

Virtual box is free emulator but there are paid alternatives. The most popular is Parallels. You have to pay a fair amount for this emulator, but it does include a Windows license and the main difference between this and something like Virtual box is that you have a mode called ‘coherence’. This will run your Windows applications inside iOS. The experience in pretty seamless and Bet Angel runs well on this platform as an independent piece of software inside iOS.

It will hog your system for resources though, so you need to balance that out with your requirements for other tasks that you aim to run on your Apple Mac. But the software will run exactly the same as it does on a PC and all functionality like watch lists, Guardian, practice mode and all your favourite trading tools behave exactly the same.

Use ‘wine’ – https://www.winehq.org/

Wine (originally an acronym for “Wine Is Not an Emulator”) is a compatibility layer capable of running Windows applications on several POSIX-compliant operating systems, such as Linux, macOS, & BSD. Sounds complicated, but it is basically a bit of software that sits on your native device and allows you to run windows on it. We have not tested and can not confirm it works perfectly, but wine is a popular way of running Windows applications on non-windows devices.

Use a virtual private server (VPS)  – www.betangel.com/vps/

Using a VPS, a virtual private server, is perhaps the best solution because there are many benefits to using it.

Not only can you run it on a Mac or MacBook in a very lightweight manner, but you can also run it on any internet-enabled device from anywhere in the world. Whether you have an Android device or a typical smartphone / mobile phone. Using a VPS will allow you to access your Betfair trading software on any device. RDP client software is generally free, so you have many devices all of which can connect to Bet Angel.

A VPS is connected to the internet permanently, so it’s a great safety feature if your main connection is struggling and it can also run 24/7 without you need to check on it. It works just like a desktop PC but it’s actually a server in a datacentre located near to the exchanges. It’s a neat solution.

You also don’t need to buy a windows licence as that is already pre-installed on the VPS. I actively use VPS’s because they are very low bandwidth and mean I can run strategies 24/7. You will need some remote desktop software to connect to your VPS and the free Microsoft remote desktop seems to do the job just fine.

Watch the video below to see me using Bet Angel on an iPad pro. This works particularly well as you have an Apple Pencil which can be required for some precision click betting or trading and will help anybody who is a bit hamfisted!

Turn an iPad on its side and you have a supplementary ladder interface! The battery life on these devices tends to be very long as well, so any of these types of devices are really useful for either trading or as a back-up device if anything goes wrong with your main machine. Using a VPS gets around two other problems as well.

You can access it through multiple methods to check on your automation for example, even if you are work. Without having to log into the Betfair site, where you may find you are blocked. But also if you are travelling a VPS is very lightweight and location independent. Any connection you make with Betfair will always originate from our datacentre equipment in the UK.

While it’s a little more expensive, it has many more benefits than other methods.

Summary

So there you go, some options on how to run Bet Angel or for that face any Betfair trading software on a Mac, Macbook, or other device than a PC.

While it is a little more expensive, I tend to use a VPS, as it gives you a massive range of options in terms of how you use software and it’s device-independent. So you can turn up anywhere on any device and start trading. It’s useful for automation as well, so that’s my preferred method.

When I am travelling I actually use a Macbook Pro and the latest generation iPad. They compliment each other well and if I’m trading manually and with some automation, the gesture control on the Macbook pro works fantastically as I can flick between different version of Bet Angel in a flash.

I also have an iPhone XS max which acts as a back up device if everything else goes wrong. I can use the larger screen to get access to Bet Angel via a VPS really quickly and exit any positions. My UPS and other options have more or less seen the bin.

Of course, I’m trading at a high level, so I want all options available to me. But hopefully all the options I have listed above, give you a fair bit of choice.

The post Betfair trading software for an Apple Mac appeared first on Betfair trading blog | Expert advice from Professional Betfair trade.

Using Ready-Made Servants – Step-by-Step guide

Bet Angel Servants

In late 2017, Bet Angel launched its new Servants feature. Servants are unique to Bet Angel and the only feature of any Betfair trading software that combines all the advantages of manual trading with the lighting speed of automation to give Bet Angel users the best of both worlds.

Some element of your trading will benefit from using a Servant. Whether it’s alerting you to a new opportunity, getting into a position ahead of others or closing out a position the instant it sees an opportunity, Servants will be able to improve your trading significantly.

What do Servants do?

Servants make use of the powerful yet easy to use rules editor within Bet Angel allowing you to create a Servant using any of the conditions, parameters, signals and stored values previously reserved for fully automation users – they even have some additional options of their own!

Unlike automation which, you would normally set and forget at the start of the day. Servants are designed to assist your manual trading, working only on the markets you currently have on your trading screen.

They can free your mind from large parts of your trading, ie, you spot the situation or patterns you are looking for then deploy an appropriate Servant to handle the tedious side of pinpointing the precise time to place the bet, enter and exit.

They can be used as simple helpers, through to fully automated trades under your control tirelessly watching for the precise moment to act based on the instructions you’ve given it.

Servants have been made very easy to start and stop in a variety of ways. You can use keystrokes, mouse clicks, popup menus or even custom columns added to the one-click screen. They have also been designed to be as flexible as possiblem, so many options when creating them are context-sensitive. This means you and can make use of which selection, price and stake used under your mouse cursor when they are started.

Ever since they were introduced I’ve slowly built up a small army of them (which is still expanding all the time) and now have countless servants ready at my fingertips ready to deploy when the situation arises. In short, they have transformed the way I others using them can now trade the markets.

Downloading Ready-Made Servants

The Bet Angel forum contains dozens of ready-made servants you can download and begin using straight away, and in five simple steps you will be on your way to building your own army of Servants

Step 1 – Open a market from the ‘Market Selection’ window

Step 2 – Download any of the ready-made ‘Automation Servant’ rules files from the dedicated shared files section on the Bet Angel forum. To do this simply click the thread title of the Servant you’re interested in and just below the description, you will see a link for a file name ending in .Baf, just click this to download the Servant to your PC.

Step 3 – Back on your main Bet Angel screen click on the Bellboy icon at the right side of your main banner to open the ‘Servant Manager’ window, then click the rules tab and ‘Import a rules file’ and navigate to the folder on your PC that you just downloaded the servant .Baf file to in step 2.

Step 4 – Staying in the Servant Manager window the following step is to click the ‘Control’ tab and select the rule you have just imported or wish to run from the drop list and click the ‘Start’ button. Depending on how the servant has been created and the task its to perform you may then need to choose the selection, price or stake you want to run the servant on.

You will hear the sound of a desk bell ring and the ‘Bellboy’ icon will now change colour indicating the selected servant has been started and is now either pending or active. Below In the most recently started servant window you will also see a coloured circle next to the name of the servant started also indicating if it’s Pending (yellow) or active (green) and below this is the full details of all the rules of that servant showing the times they will be active and number of times they have triggered.

Step 5 – Now just sit back or continue your manual trading while your Servant gets on with its given task.

Getting started with Bet Angel Servants

Servants have been designed to be as flexible to use as possible so in addition to starting a servant as described above in step 4 there are also numerous other ways they can be started, this includes using a shortcut key, a custom column on the one-click screen. For more details on these please refer to the following page of the Bet Angel user guide.

There are also multiple ways in which you can stop a servant which are detailed more on this page of the Bet Angel user guide.

If you would like to have a go at making your own servant it very easy to get started and the following blog will walk you through step by step.

Servants are a great way to refine your manual trading. Whatever you use them for they will give you that extra edge against other traders in the market, allowing you to get in or out of position slightly quickly that other manual traders or get alerted to new information that other traders may not see.

They should make up a key part of your trading weaponry!

*Remember Servants are designed to assist the manual trader and are intended to run on the market you have on your current trading screen, as soon as you switch to another market any servants running will automatically be stopped so there is never any danger of them triggering in the background without your knowledge.

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