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Changing time, date, language – Windows Server – VPS

So you have a Windows server VPS but the language is in US English and the time & date are all the wrong way around. How do you change this to UK English and get everything back to the way you are familair with. Follow this step by step guide to learn how to change the language and date & time settings.

This guide works if you are running at Windows server operating system. We are using Windows server 2016 in this instance and a VPS hosted service. You won’t need anything complicated like root access, just log into your Windows server and start clicking!

Written walk through

We have illustrated this guide with a number of images to aid you but here is process simplified: –

(1) Select date and time from the bottom right your server screen.

(2) Select date and time settings.

(3) Select region and language option

(4) Selection the appropiate country and region. Add if it does not appear in the list.

(5) Set the default language to your prefereance and apply

Visual walk through

Step 1 – Click on the date / time, then click on ‘Date and time settings’
Step 02 – Click on the left hand side on ‘Region & language’

Step 03 – Find and set your default language

In the final step, select add a language, then select from the list or type ‘ English (United Kingdom) and select that option. Set that option as the default language and apply as necessary.

Select ‘United Kingdom’ from the drop down menu option under ‘Country or region’.

That’s it, you should see your Windows server set up correctly in English (United Kingdom) mode.

The post Changing time, date, language – Windows Server – VPS appeared first on Betfair trading blog | Expert advice from Professional Betfair trade.

My very strange end to the football season

May traditionally brings the end of the football season. Another season is over and many hopes have been dashed and many expectations raised for the new season.

And as you will know, I am a Southampton fan and have been since I was a boy. A legacy of my Dad’s friends taking me to matches, then sisters boyfriend’s. It was where I was pretty much brought up and learned a lot about life. Since then I have been going when I can.

Venting at some players running around a pitch, the opponents or a referee is a great stress reliever (generally). I’m sure most of you know the sort of pain and suffering you go through if you’re not in a top-six side and. But I still enjoy it and I still go.

When you are at your peak, relegation looms

I’ve got a story about relegation for you that you may not have heard and it also contains a bit of irony as well.

I remember during the 2003 F.A. Cup final, turning to a friend of mine and saying, you know what, we’ve got this. We’re in the FA Cup final. We’ve finished quite high in the league. There’s absolutely no reason why we shouldn’t remain here for a long, long time. And then what happens? Two years later, we were relegated.

So when I was at the EFL Cup final a few years later, somebody turns to me and said, you know what? Were getting higher and higher in the league were in Europe and were in the EFL cup final. We are now a guaranteed sort of top-six side.

I just told him to stop right there. ‘Football doesn’t work like that, it wouldn’t surprise me if next season we end up struggling and get relegated.’ And they all laughed. But it was the thought of what happened to us when that was last said that resonated with me at that particular moment in time.

My life analysing football matches

So, in 2005, two years after Southampton appeared in the FA Cup final in 2003, they were relegated. Something very unusual happened and it was a story that I thought I’d recall for you because it’s quite funny really.

As you know, I’ve spent years looking at understanding, modelling, profiling football matches and trying to get a real handle on exactly what creates a goal, how that gets played out and how I can use that in order to be able to forecast matches better. So it’s something I’ve done for many, many years. I started doing that in the 80s and I’ve continued to do that analysis ever since. Honing and refine what I know about football and how to forecast it.

But one of the unusual things about when Southampton was relegated in 2005, is that I actually successfully predicted a long time out. What actually happened was that I predicted their demise way back in January that year. But not in the way that you would expect!

My life analysing football matches & my Dream

Back in January 2005, I suddenly woke up with a start.

Southampton had been in the top flight for many, many years. I had a terrible dream that night that Southhampton had been relegated. It was so stark that it woke me up and so vivid that I made a quick note of what the dream was all about.

The dream was about Southampton being relegated. I remember that crushing feeling as I stood there at the end of the match coming to terms with that fact. But not only that I actually played out the whole match in my head, and I could tell you what happened, when when the goal was scored, who scored it and the fact that Southampton were relegated because of that. 

Now, I thought nothing of it. It was just, you know, it was a nightmare. But I wrote down this information and really thought nothing of it. But fate intervened and somebody on the Betfair forum posted up a message saying about people who have predicted the outcome of sporting events through dreams. It was called ‘I Had a Dream’ or something like that. But again, I thought nothing of it.

Because of the role that I have now, I don’t tend to go to matches that often. I can only attend a match if it’s midweek or a Sunday. I hadn’t really thought much about the end of the season at that particular point and about the prospect of relegation. But as we got nearer and nearer towards the end of the season, it became apparent that probably we were going to be in a bit of a relegation battle.

Southampton near relegation and fate intervenes

But again, I didn’t think much of it because I didn’t have a season ticket and all of the tickets were allocated for the last game of the season. So I wasn’t going to go anyway. So again, no thought ever entered my head about what had happened way back in January.

However, I get a phone call out of the blue from an old school friend who says he can’t go because his Dad’s was ill. Would you like my ticket? You can go and watch the last match of the season!

So I said to him rather jokingly at the time, well, okay, I’m more than happy to take the ticket off if you, Paul. But I had a really weird dream about how I watched Van Nistleroy score in the sixty-third minute and Southampton were relegated because of that. Of course, we both had a laugh about that.  So I said, I’ll take a season ticket, but bear in mind if this comes true, don’t blame me.

Making the prediction public

Upon receiving the ticket and reminding myself about the dream, I went on to the Betfair forum and actually posted up a message before I went to the match detailing exactly what I saw in the dream. Not the use of a PDA, iPhones had not been invented then!

When I turned up to the match I was in the exact location I had dreamt and things started to get really weird. Everything was panning out exactly as expected five months earlier when I had that dream in January. As the results from around the country started to come in it was clear Southampton must win against Man United at home to have any chance of a last-minute escape.

As the clock ticked forward in time I watched nervously as it approached 63 minutes. Manchester United, not caring about our plight, strode up the pitch with suitable authority. The ball was sent up the pitch then out to the wing for Alan Smith. I glanced up at the clock and Smith strode forward and sent the ball over the Southampton box. It was on 63 minutes! Van Nistelrooy rose up at the far post, his head met the ball and the ball hit the back of the net. That moment will stick in my mind forever!

So it turned out that things had happened exactly as I dreamt, five months earlier in January. The Betfair forum completely exploded, because people had seen the message and then also watched it come true. The post pretty much went viral and all of a sudden the BBC picked up on it and wanted to interview me about exactly what had happened.

Why did it happen?

Of course, this is not the way that I recommend that you bet on a football match!

I know there are stories of this before. But I do wonder whether because of my analytical ability, my allegiance to Southampton and all of the stuff that I’ve done over the many years, made a contribution. I wonder whether that had some impact in terms of my brain working overtime to figure out what the score could likely be. I didn’t even know when I had the dream that we’re playing Manchester United at the end of the season. It was only after waking up and having the dream that I went to check and see what the fixture list was.

You also couldn’t rule out that there are other factors at play. What about the moments where things didn’t turn out, forgotten thoughts of no consequence. Would I have paid so much attention if the outcome wasn’t so significant? All these things can be thrown into the mix.

But ultimately, I successfully predicted five months in advance that Southampton would be relegated on the last day of the season. Not only that but the score of the match, who the scorer would be and the time of the goal. If that were not coincidence enough, the fact I was there despite having no intention of going, added up to a remarkable set of coincidences.

Maybe in a parallel universe, it didn’t happen, but in this one, it definitely did!

The post My very strange end to the football season appeared first on Betfair trading blog | Expert advice from Professional Betfair trade.

Betfair Trading – Scalping – Explained Part 3/3

It this post I’ll look at another tool within Bet Angel which is handy for scalping and also a slightly different method of scalping than what’s been shown earlier in Part 1 and Part 2 of this series.

In the previous blogs of this Basic Betfair Scalping series we looked first at the ‘Make Market’ button then using ‘offset bet with greening’. Both these methods involved placing both bets at the same time at one tick increments on the betting exchange. This time we are going to look at a Scalping method that requires only placing one bet and having Bet Angel place the other – only once it has been fully matched.

The feature we are going to use this time is the ‘Fill or Kill’ option which is located within the ‘Global Settings’ area discussed in the last blog. Once enabled Fill or kill works quite simply, you set the number of seconds then when you place a bet if its matched (filled) great, but if it’s not matched within the number of seconds you’ve specified then it automatically cancelled (Killed) for you by the software.

Used in conjunction with ‘offsetting’ this allows you to place an opening bet the offset bet ONLY gets placed by the scalping software when it is filled (matched). This enables you to do a different type of scalping that we’ve looked at so far.

So in this blog, we’ll be looking at a method known as ‘Directional Scalping’. You can do this in any betting market, but we are specifically looking at horse racing and football matches in these examples.

‘Directional Scalping’

As the name suggests ‘Directional Scalping’ is where you look to scalp something as it’s price moves along in one direction rather than looking for something that is stable in a tight odds range. Also instead of placing both bets at the same time, this method works better if you place one bet wait for it to be filled then have the software place the offset bet in the direction the price is moving.

So depending on which way the price is moving would depend on whether your opening bet would be a back or lay bet. If the price is moving downwards (shortening) you’d be looking to back first, if it was moving upwards (drifting) you’d be looking to lay first. The set up used here is the same ‘offset with greening’ 1 tick as the previous post but this time we going to use the ‘Fill or Kill’ option and set it to 10 secs.

When ‘Directional Scalping’ its best done using the ladder screen as you ll have a better overview of the market for this style of trading.

The first thing you need to do is find a selection that is trending gently in one direction or another, you don’t want something that’s moving too sharply as these can snap back at any moment and possibly leave you looking at several ticks loss.

By finding something that has a more gentle trend if the price does start to reverse after matching the opening bet (but before your offset is matched) then you should have plenty of time to exit and take a small 2-3 tick loss before beginning the process again if the situation allows.

Executing a Directional Scalp

In this example, we are looking at horse racing. Don’t forget that while we are looking for a direction, we are looking for high liquidity markets as well.

Liquidity is a key part of this trading strategy as we will only get small profits from small price movements. This means we want our orders to get matched quickly. In these images, we are in practice mode, but liquidity is essential if you are using real money.

In the image below we can see the 3rd runner ‘Page of Wands’ has been steadily shortening in price all day, you can see this from the Betfair chart and that its isn’t trapped in any trading range but is instead continuing on a downward trend so is perfect for Directional Scalping.

As it continues to shorten by offering a back bet at the best reverse price first if the price moves before its matched the bet will be killed after 10 secs with no harm done and another bet can then be placed if there is still an opportunity. We are using small stakes that match the available money being matched or offered in the market.

*If it was gently drifting you would be looking to offer a lay bet first and if matched have the back bet offset*

In the next image below, you will see the opening bet was matched and Bet Angel has now placed the ‘offset bet with greening’ 1 tick lower by placing a lay bet automatically at a potential profit.

Hopefully, this will be matched quickly and that’s the directional scalp complete, as above if the selection looks like it’s continuing to shorten the process can be repeated or if you see a similar trend emerge on another selection, each time looking to get in and out as fast as possible picking up another tick profit every time both sides are successfully matched.

You can open a trade at the current back or lay price. You just need to ‘lean’ on the general trend on the Betfair exchange.

As I detailed in the previous blog if it looks like the price is about to reverse and not match your offset bet you can click on the ‘P/L’ figure in the trade profit column, you can see in the image above I could do this now by clicking the ‘£0.00’ figure to scratch the trade and exiting the trade zero profit or loss.

Directional Scalping Football Markets

This type of scalping can be very effective on in-play football markets but timing is very critical.

The price will move in one direction as the time decays until a major event like a goal or sending off, but there are periods of time within a match when the speed of the price move increases/decreases, so you’re looking for a period when the price is actively moving but also you should be watching the match and looking for times when a goal is looking less likely before opening a trade.

Summary

Hopefully these blogs have given you insight and will help you get started with Scalping using Bet Angel. There are of course tons more tools and ways to Scalp the markets with Bet Angel so I may follow this up with another series of more advanced techniques including semi and fully automated methods.

The post Betfair Trading – Scalping – Explained Part 3/3 appeared first on Betfair trading blog | Expert advice from Professional Betfair trade.

Football Trading, using statistics & analytics

When you are Betfair football trading, like most markets, you are looking for an edge. Whatever Betfair football trading strategy you are using, getting a deeper insight into how a match could play out and how those prices move, will obviously benefit you significantly in your quest for a Sunseeker motor cruiser or whatever chattels you desire!

Betfair trading on football means you are predominately looking at key types of price movement, time decay and when a goal is scored. It could be that you are trading the 2.5 goals markets or match odds, or perhaps the correct scores markets. To be profitable longer-term at sports trading requires that you know something that somebody else doesn’t. So gathering data and knowledge on a match can be a critical path on that road.

Back in the late eighties and early nineties when I was trying to win the football pools, nobody really understood what was going through my head. But trying to know something that others didn’t was ultimately my aim. But it was a hard slog!

The era of ‘Not interested

When I got my hands on my first home computer I wanted to learn to code. So I set about learning and to do so I started creating a database of football matches. After a bit of time, I began to work through the odds on things happening, why and how I could use it to forecast the chance of winning a football match.

I had an ulterior motive though, I wanted to win the football pools. It was the only bit of gambling I was exposed to back then and it seemed like a good target. I would achieve this a few years later, but that’s another story!

I really started to get into all the statistical side of football matches. I wrote to a football magazine and explaining to them how I’d carefully mapped out what happens during a match. I carefully laid out an extensive document talking about how the time of the goal influences the outcome of a match and how a red card can significantly alter that match outcome. It included a summary of key statistics surrounding a football match and some interesting insight into how I felt individual events would affect the outcome of the match and the chance of a draw.

I remember receiving a letter back from the editor of the magazine, his comments were along the lines of “I have no idea why anybody would be interested in this sort of stuff”. I sort of understood that as it was rather arcane and obscure, but to me it was very interesting.

It just seemed that at that moment in time it wasn’t very interesting to anybody else! I actually archived all the work I did around this era, not knowing that I may use it in the future. It just seemed a waste to put it in the bin.

Football analytics in the modern age

Wind forward to today though and there are thousands of blogs, articles and other information surrounding the mechanics of how football matches played out. And now millions being spent a year by football clubs to get a tiny edge against all of their rivals. I’m guessing I was just a little ahead of my time and perhaps, if I had more perseverance as a youngster, I may have made some of these ideas stick.

The interesting thing now about football analytics, from a trading perspective, is that there is now a plethora of information available on each individual match. This data could be before the matches started or as the match is under-way and this gives us significant insight that I couldn’t have dreamt of a few years ago.

Now, of course, people are trying to give insight from a number of perspectives but the practical upshot from a trading perspective is that the data available is very high quality and can have pretty profound implications for the way in which you choose to trade a match.

It’s amazing how deep some of the analysis goes and how a lot of people don’t realise the value of some of the analysis that they are doing. It can give valuable insight into certain aspects of a match or other team or of a player, or many other aspects.

The fact that most of its available for free, in the hope that people may place a bet, is very helpful. I’ve often considered offering a detailed analysis of individual matches. But to be honest, a lot of the information is out there is more than adequate and sufficient to be able to get good insight as to what’s actually happening during the match. It’s much better content, generated real-time, than I could offer on my own on top of all my other commitments.

I’ll often browse WhoScored, InfoGol, SoccerStats, SofaScore, UnderStat to name a few sites among many, to get some insight. It may be worth me elaborating at some point if you are interested. Leave a comment on the blog if you are interested in what I’m looking for. Some of the Fantasy football sites, accidentally, give away good information. Specifically, if you are looking at the impact of player injuries. There is a plethora of good sites to choose from.

We have done a fair bit of work on Bet Angel though. Aside from improving basic one click betting functions to display additional information from a football match, we have added things like coupons to allow you to display markets next to each other. This should help you get the best out of any statistics you are looking at and act on them quickly from a trading perspective.

But, given my background in Football analytics and market pricing, it shouldn’t really be surprising that rather than just creating another bit of trading software, I added in Soccer Mystic, which is focused around what happens if a teams scores, or doesn’t as the case may be. If you are developing any Betfair trading strategy on football, even basic ones like lay the draw, it can help you understand what will happen at key points within the football match.

The funny thing is, from a broader perspective, as more information becomes available, especially to football individual teams, it becomes less valuable.

Analytics, the pop concert and the drunk

A few years ago, by a very fortuitous route, I found myself in a professional football club offering advice on using analytics in a game. I was fortunate enough to go through a rapid learning curve in terms of what is out there and how clubs are using it at a professional level. My conclusion, it’s all great, but only if you use something that others are not using. Like trading, you need to find a niche.

Imagine going to a music festival to watch a band and the guy in front of you stands on his tiptoes to get a better view. In turn you will stand in your tiptoes to improve your view and that forces the person behind you to stand on their tiptoes. This is the situation that a lot of clubs find themselves in currently. They feel the need to get involved in analytics but the benefit of doing so is only relative to what other teams are doing. And of course, all the other teams are now doing analytics and that nullifies the effect of getting good analytics. It becomes a battle of who has the best analytics or ideas.

Football analytics, statistics and lampposts

I’ve been involved in advising on the use of analytics and often I’m questioned why I should be offering advice. But of course, I have a very good answer, I don’t have a degree in statistics.

You would think that would work against me, but it tends to work very well. This is because I can see things very clearly and in ways that others perhaps can’t perceive. I’m not looking for the obvious or to get peer-reviewed. The best qualification I have of being able to advise in this manner is quite simple. If you’re betting or trading using information and its profitable, you definitely know more than other people do. That’s valuable.

When I go back to the start of my trading career I started on football markets a I knew them so well. But it would take some time to do a proper analysis. In this modern era, there is just so much quality information, especially in-play. There is loads of really detailed insight within the grasp of pretty much everybody.

So my advice to you would be yes, use football analytics. But don’t use them like a drunk uses a lamppost, for support rather than illumination!

The post Football Trading, using statistics & analytics appeared first on Betfair trading blog | Expert advice from Professional Betfair trade.