BlogRead the Latest News

 

Bet Angel | New Feature | History Lists

An innovative feature added to Bet Angel V1.55 was the ability to store values into independant history lists, this expands the uses of the already powerful Stored Values options even further and opens the doors to even more possibilities.

History lists – The concept

If you come from a coding background, history lists are very much like an array. If you are not a coder, then the concept of a history list is to store stuff. This will most likely be data from a market you are trading, which you can then work with and display elsewhere on Bet Angel.

History Lists, as the name suggests, enables you to store historic market data like back/lay/last traded prices, Volume, Book%, Profit & Loss and loads more quickly and easily in up to 10 unique History Lists.

The data in these history lists can then be referenced and used throughout other areas of Bet Angel, for example you could look up stored values from a history list and;

  • Trigger other automation/servant rules like placing bets, alerts etc
  • Display their values on the One-Click/Ladder trading screen
  • Create Markers to highlight cells and rows on your Ladder screen
  • Plot your own unique Advanced Charts
  • Export and review the data at the end of the day without the need to create/use a specialist Excel ‘Data Capture’ worksheets

NB, in V1.55 it’s now also possible to reference regular Stored Values in the first three of the above

More Added Features

To complement the Storing of Values to History Lists. We have also added in V1.55 to the ‘General’ tab of the automation/servant rules editor, the ability to trigger rules
‘Unlimited’ times, rearm on ‘Each’ refresh and trigger on ‘Every’ selection.

This means with as little as a single rule you could store the prices of every selection as frequently as every refresh into a history list, then use that for any of the tasks listed above and more.

I’ll be putting together a few ready-made examples showing just some of what’s possible with the new history lists and how they can be used, you will be able to download and import these examples directly into your Bet Angel and begin using straight away or edit to suit your own requirements.

As well as ready-made examples over coming weeks and months I’ll also be doing some step-by step guides which you can follow and set up exactly the same way or make some slight changes along the way to create your own bespoke settings.

Before any of that why not have a go at creating your own ‘history Lists’ to store some data.

Creating your Own History List

Creating a rules file to store values in a History list is very easy even if you’ve never used automation before but are interested in other things like the data, creating unique advanced chart, displaying information and/or customized markers on your ladder from values in a history list etc.


Begin by opening Guardian by clicking the green ‘G’ icon, then add some markets to Guardian, highlight one so that you can click the ‘Create a New Rules File For Selected Market’.

When the rules editor window opens select the rule type ‘Set/Modify a Stored Value’ from the list of Rule types, and give it a name of your choice, in this example I’m just going to call it ‘Store Price History’.

I’ve also set it as always armed so as soon as you apply the file to a market each day it will begin triggering, with an unlimited number of triggers, rearming every refresh.

(nb, you may not want that much data and may prefer to just store the prices every second, 30 seconds or minute etc or only want the data storing in the last hour before the event starts – the choice is yours).

Next move onto the ‘Stored Value’ tab and choose ‘Store Value in History List’ from the picklist.

You can now just need to select what information it is you want to store in your history list, in the image below I’ve chosen the ‘selections back price’ in the ‘History List 1’.

And that’s it, it’s as easy as that!

Now just click ‘Apply’ and then click the ‘Disk+’ icon to give the file a name of your choice and save it. Its now ready to apply to your markets each day, and every time the market gets refreshed the rule will trigger and store the back price of every selection to history list 1.

But while were here why not also store something else to another history list?

Adding More History Lists

To do this just click the ‘New’ button in the bottom left corner and you can now add another ‘Stored Value in History List’, this time selecting ‘History List 2’ and choose whatever it is you want to store, this time I’ve chosen to store ‘selections Lay Price’.

Then click ‘Apply’ and this time the ‘disc’ icon to re-save the file. Its upto you if you stop now or continue to add further stored values into other history lists.

Storing History Lists at Different Intervals

Perhaps you want to store values of something else but only need it storing for certain times ie, the last hour before the event starts and/or only want it storing at a different rate ie, every minute rather than on every refresh.

To do this we just need to go back to the ‘General’ tab and in the upper left corner of the window click the green ‘+’ icon to add another rule.
Then just as we did the first time select ‘Set/Modify Stored Value’ rule, but this time we’ll setup some different times. In the image below I’ve set this rule to trigger 30mins before the event start and re-arm every 60secs and trigger 30 times.

Then on the ‘Stored Value’ tab I can select the information I want to store and which ‘History List’ its to be stored into, this time I’ve chosen to store the ‘Market Volume’ into History List 3.

At the bottom of this Stored Value window there is the option to write the Stored Values to the log (highlighted in the image above).

Bet Angel V1.55 has also had major changes made in how log data is written and stored so you can now write much more to a log than in previous versions, however if your storing data to history lists this can still build up very fast especially when storing it for every selection, every refresh and in dozens of markets throughout the day and will soon begin to slow down and eventually may eventually lock up your PC under the strain.

It’s therefore recommend that when storing lots of data to history lists just for plotting charts, triggering other rules and to display on your main trading screens etc keeping this box unticked.

Only use it when first setting up a rule to check you are storing the values correctly and how you want them, or if your storing data to history lists less frequently and/or want to copy the log contents into excel at the end of the day for later analysis.
On the first two history lists I left this unticked, but for the third containing the market volume I will tick so that I can copy it into excel each day and plot the volume arrival
.

So we now have a rules file that when applied to markets will store the back price of each selection to the history list 1 on every refresh, the lay price for every selection to the history list 2 on every refresh, and 30mins before an event starts will begin storing the traded volume of the market every 60 secs to the history list 3. All the values stored throughout the day in these History Lists can now be referenced in the other area’s of Bet Angel as detailed near the top of this post.

All that’s left to do now is click ‘apply’ and re-save the rules file by clicking the disc icon at the top of the window and its ready to use.

Using The Rules File

Once you have your markets in Guardian simply click the ‘Apply rules file to all markets’ on the main banner , or select the markets you do want to apply it to.

Once the rules file is applied by highlighting any of the markets and ensuring the ‘log’ tab below the bottom window is selected you will see the data for the ‘History Lists’ where you ticked the ‘write the Stored Values to the log’ being writen to the log.

At the end of each day you can use the ‘Copy to Clipboard’ button in the bottom right corner to extract that and save as a .txt or .csv file for later anaylsis and charting etc. For more information on this (with no excel knowledge required) please see the following post from the Bet Angel Forum.

Example History Lists

I would always recommend you have a go at creating your own unique History Lists first, as you never know what you might want or need them before, but if you are still struggling I have added some ready-made example History Lists to the Bet Angel forum, there are a few seperate lists you can download and each will import a different type of data, ie, price, volume, greening values etc.

Many of the future examples I post here and on the forum may also use data stored in these History Lists so if you want to downlod them either for your own use or ready to use with future examples you can get them from the following forum post

Final Tip

If your new to using Guardian it’s important you understand how Guardian cycles and refreshes markets to ensure you have Guardian configured optimally for what your doing, for full details on how Guardian cycles and refreshes markets and how it impacts on ANY rules file being used please see this post.

The post Bet Angel | New Feature | History Lists appeared first on Betfair trading blog | Expert advice from Professional Betfair trade.

Trading the Goodwood & Galway festivals

Here is a blog post about how to trade GoodWay on Betfair. No that’s not a typo! There are two race meetings that should get your attention during this busy week. The feature meeting of the week is the Qatar Goodwood festival, or Glorious Goodwood, whichever you prefer. This is a race meeting that should definitely get your attention this week.

The grounds surrounding Goodwood house are known for many things including the Goodwood festival of speed. But the racecourse perched on the West Sussex downs is surrounded by stunning countryside.

It’s one of a number of racecourses I’ve visited over the years and its up there on the list of racecourse and meetings I would recommend. If you are into Golf, the Goodwood estate also has a decent Golf course. It’s a bit of a favourite of mine after I discovered the area many years ago.

From a trading perspective, I like multi day high-quality meetings. They usually throw up some good opportunities and are a welcome addition to any month.

Goodwood racing – Trading conditions

As you may know, these higher-quality meetings produce extra volume and that can change the characteristics significantly when you are trading on Betfair.

But don’t let Goodwood fool you into thinking it’s the same as a Royal Ascot or Cheltenham, it behaves very differently. Goodwood benefits from decent volume pre-race but it’s not as much as some major meetings. Therefore it can be a little tricky at times to get exactly right. When you look at in-play markets the course topography ensures an ‘interesting’ challenge as horses navigate very variable terrain.

I tend to find that money piles into Goodwood in the sort of manner you get at other major horse racing meetings. It sort of forgets to look at the race card and above-average money ploughs into the lower quality stuff as well and that makes the fill rate poor.

Most Betfair trading strategies rely on fill rate in one form or another over the long term. So lack of it can be frustrating and it may impact your ability to trade a betting exchange market. Look at some these horse racing markets and you may find too much money ends up chasing not enough opportunity. If you find yourself in the position where you lose money when trading at Goodwood, this could be why.

You can pick off some good quality opportunities. Typically, the race card at Goodwood is a feature race surrounded by other races at the start and finish of the racing card. So the way that the markets trade, change over the course of the day.

As hinted, the flow on the Betfair exchange feels very different at Goodwood when compared to other major meetings. You may get off to a bad start only to build into some more favourable positions as the day peaks and then end in a similar manner to which you started. It takes a bit of care to flex your aggression appropriately.

The best Goodwood trade ever!

Goodwood is much better than the normal day to day fodder you are used to though, but not quite on the same scale as other major meetings. Last year, at post time, it turned over around 40% on average of a typical Ascot race. So, by all means, welcome a decent festival in the summer, but just have realistic expectations.

Average volume per race at Goodwood is around £1.1m. Last year it turned over £38m on the week with the biggest race doing £2.2m and the lowest £500k. That about sums up Glorious Goodwood.

I’ve often had mixed results at Goodwood, so Tuesday is my day for ‘feeling’ the market and testing its boundaries.

Day one has a pretty mixed up card, a bit of everything in there. So it should be an interesting base to work from on day one. There will be a variety of markets in the mix so half decent stakes and care will be my hallmarks for the day. I’ll update you on my progress Via social media.

There are plenty of themes that can run through these big meetings and get a few drunk racegoers trying to impress their better half on ladies day and you can set of some gambles. You see this at a lost of race meetings, like Frankie Dettori at Royal Ascot 2019 and the same thing happened at Goodwood with Ryan Moore in 2017: –

https://www.betangel.com/blog/trading-goodwood-ryan-moore/

Trading the Galway Festival

Don’t forget you also have Galway this week as well, so plenty to keep us occupied. Galway runs for the entire week and is a giant p*ss up, apparently, there is some racing on as well!

Irish racing tends to be a little quieter on the turnover front and a good festival tends to the the same sort of volume that you would expect for a normal race in the UK.

The interesting thing, as I have pointed out on the blog, is that Betdaq performs well on Irish racing and will perform well at Galway. Again there will be a drop in volume but the fill rate is so much better on Betdaq. I am half expecting to earn more on Betdaq this week at Galway, than on Betfair.

The biggest race last year at Galway produced £882k, the smallest a paltry £144k!

If you are off on your hols soon, This week presents a decent range of opportunities to get stuck into before you head off! So fire up your trading software and make the most of this busy week. Plenty of gaps after this week to enjoy the rest of the summer!

The post Trading the Goodwood & Galway festivals appeared first on Betfair trading blog | Expert advice from Professional Betfair trade.

Bet Angel’s unique new tool – ladder markers

The Betfair Ladder Trading screen on Bet Angel, is likely the most used and certainly the screen you’ll see most often when watching Betfair trading videos, especially horse racing.

What is a trading ladder?

The ladder is a view that will be familiar to anybody that has traded on the stock market. This is because in a similar way to a stock exchange market, real-time full market depth is shown on ladder display. This allows you to see the order book and where unmatched orders are sitting in a market.

Betfair traders often look at the ladder in volatile markets to see where prices are heading in the short term and ‘trade off’ of that information. They can see matched and unmatched bets and react very quickly as new infromation becomes available.

Although just about every trading software that plugs into the Betfair exchange will offer a ladder interface, how people use it and what they want from it differers hugely.

Why you should customise your ladder

It’s important in a competitive trading market that you get your own edge. You need to find your own unique view that give you some insight that another trader isn’t looking at.

That’s why the Bet Angel ladder trading screen is the most customisable ladder trading screen on the market, it doesn’t matter if you are a pre-off or in-running racing trader, a football trader, tennis trader, golf trader, greyhound trader or trade any other sports. The options and tools on hand in Bet Angel caters for everything.

The ladder settings, options and ways of customizing are so vast that there has already been a few blogs done to highlight specific areas and ways of customizing your ladders, if you’ve not yet seen them they are worth checking out as there’s almost certainly some settings or options that will be of use to you that you were unaware of, I’d suggest starting with these three at least

Ladder Trading Screen – Designed by You

Display Special Trading Information

Predicted Football Odds on Ladder

Take your Betfair trading to a new level with ‘Markers’

We are always trying to think of ways to improve your trading on Bet Angel and with the release of Bet Angel V1.55 the ladder trading screen has had yet more options and features added giving it yet another layer of customisation.

A major feature added in V1.55 was what we’ve called ‘Markers’. As the name suggests these are markers which you can place on your ladder as visual reference points. Not only can they be configured and placed manually but they could be set using a Servant or Automation rules file in the background.

There have also been several major enhancements in other areas of Bet Angel in V1.55 many of which can now be referenced on your ladder screen, allowing you to display almost anything you want on there, including things like stored values, historic data, markers, scores, predicted profits and so on.

Using Bet Angel ‘Markers’

A good way to showcase some of these new options and the scenarios you might find them useful for, is to post some links to some ready-made ladder settings files. You can download these from our forum and import them directly into your Bet Angel, these are then ready to select and use straight away.

To begin with, this makes use of an option that’s existed in Bet Angel for a few years now which is the ability to ‘Import (& Export) Ladder Settings’, this options allows you to download and import any of the ready-made ladder settings files from the Bet Angel forum. You can also swap/transfer your own ladder settings from computer to computer or to friend or family members computer quickly and easily without the need to re-create them on each machine.

New Ladder Designs now Possible

Let’s have a look at some of the things you can now do with Bet Angel Professional.

The follow are examples we have given that you can use or modify. The range of options you have is almost unlimited. But let’s look at some specific examples: –

Best Back and Lay Prices Highlighed in Odds Column – This is a useful file for in-play trader when the prices are moving very fast and its difficult to see where the current best back/lay prices are and how big the gap is between them, other options this settings file uses is the the auto-center so you’ll never lose track of where a selection is trading no matter how much it odds are jumping around and the traded volume is displayed in percentages rather than monetry amounts.

Highlight Crossover Odds on Ladder – This Ladder settings file makes use of the new markers added in V1.55 and highlights the odds where the odds where the price increments change ie, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0, 6.0, 10.0 etc, also known as the ‘Crossover’ prices/odds. This also displays your EPIQ (estimated position in queue) within the traded volume column.

Highlighed Key Price Markers (Fractional and Crossover) – Similar to the file above except this goes a little further and also includes markers around where the fractional odds traditionally used by Bookmakers appear on a decimal ladder screen. You will often see price trade between two sets of fractional odds so if you don’t already know were they appear this type of setting will help show where ranges will likely form between.

High/Low Back & Lay Prices Highlighed on Ladder – This type of settings can be useful when trading a few types of sports as it will show you the high/low prices each side of the book has reached since you last requested it, ie, you tell it when to start monitoring and it will show the high/low prices reached thereafter, you can then reset it again anytime you want with the press of a key.

Selections Volume Increase Since ‘X’ time ago – There could be also sorts of uses for displaying this information, the settings used in this file will display the increase in volume for each selection since 5 mins to the start, so its typically set up for pre-off racing traders who want to see which runner the money is coming for especially in competative handicap markets. It could however be used in just about any sport to measure the increase between two intervals or the in-play traded volume etc.

Display the Last Traded Price & VWAP as Faded Markers Overtime – There are two settings file to download from this post, one will show the LTP in the odds column ‘fading’ over time so you can easily see if the price is trending in a direction and if so how quickly its moving or if its stuck in a range, the other displays the VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) and uses traffic light colours to indicate historic VWAP prices

VWAP Marker with Matchsticks – This settings file is useful if you want to know where the VWAP is and see the ‘Matchstick’ charts on the side of the ladder to help pinpoint either an entry or exit or maybe if there’s a change in direction after the VWAP is broken. This too also shows the traded volume as a percentage traded rather than actual volume.

Staying up to date with new templates

What you see here is just a the small tip of what is a very large (seemingly neverending) iceberg, were almost anything is possible.

Of course, you can combine any of the settings used from any of the examples above with those in another, to create your own unique bespoke ladder settings for all sports and Betfair trading strategies. Or maybe you’ve seen something in one which you think will be useful or compliment an existing ladder setup you’re already using?

It’s worth keeping an eye on the ‘Ladder shared files’ section on the forum where there are new examples are being uploaded regularly. Even if you don’t need that particular settings file, you may just see one of the many options available that you were unaware of which you’d have use for in a different context.

We hope you enjoy all these new Ladder trading optionst that will take your Betfair trading to a completely new level.

The post Bet Angel’s unique new tool – ladder markers appeared first on Betfair trading blog | Expert advice from Professional Betfair trade.

Value betting and Betfair trading

A long time ago I started modelling sports betting markets. The key question I wanted to answer was are bookmaker odds created. I knew if I could indentify if their offered odds were wrong then I could get en edge over the bookmaker. Alas, I didn’t know bookmaking that well so the idea faded, until betting exchanges came along and I could bet at odds that I knew were value!

When I first started on Betfair, I started by arbing. But soon I brcame one of the first people to ‘discover’ Betfair trading and the rest, as they say, is history.

Value betting was off the agenda for a long period of time. This was because, in the early days, spreads were wide and fill rate poor. It was difficult to get the price you wanted on the exchange. You also couldn’t get much on, even if you found a price you wanted.

In every problem there is an opportuntity

But several things changed that for me. Matched betting volumes rose over time, the books became much tighter and prices more variable. So this opened up the door to finding value bets.

When Betfair introduced the premium charge, I also suddenly had an incentive to be less efficient. I know that sounds odd, but part of the premium charge is based on the commission you generate, so generating more commission is helpful in terms of mitigating it.

I learnt how to find value courtesy of Warren Buffett. That was in financial markets but the same sort of (modified) rules apply in sports markets. Namely, that price is not value, the market is more variable than the return and human nature is unchanging. If you combine these simple elements, you can find errors in pretty much any market.

I now run multiple trading and betting strategies in a variety of betting markets. You have to seperate the strategies as the two just don’t mix because they have very different payoffs and risk. The difference between betting and trading is very easy to define. When trading your outcome is result independent and when value betting, your result is outcome dependant.

Value is tricky to find though, as the market is pretty efficient.

So finding a value bet it is tough. But Trading, accidentally, taught me where I could find value. You are trying to catch the best moments in a market and where it is likely to turn when trading. So this led me into value territory as I was able to ‘beat the line’ repeatably.

What does value look like? On average…

I’ll often make suggestions around value when I have been able to identify value bets. When I produce football ratings I point to matches that will have above or below value median results. What I am trying to say is this looks value, that is value, this isn’t. But what does value look like?

One thing it is not, is a tip. I’ll liberally scatter the words ‘on average’ into many posts as that is what value looks like.

All sports and most events show a great deal of variability and that means that it’s nigh on impossible to get things right all the time. Therefore when you see something from me, I’m not saying back or lay this item. I am saying there is value in that.

When I say that, what I am saying is that I think the chances of winning of that selection are out of kilter with my model. On horse racing it has higher odds or too little based on the true odds I have indentified for that market. I’ve spent years learning how to calculate the odds, so can’t explain in one tweet but that’s the general message.

I’ve learnt it’s really tough for people to fully understand that. When you say something is value it doesn’t mean it will win, or lose if you are laying it. You are just saying it is mispriced and will deliver a long term profit if you do it enough.

I’ve lost count of the number of times I’ve hinted that something is a value bet or trade only for some smartarse to see it fail and quote “Well that went well”. But the fact that people don’t understand value is probably half the reason it still exists.

So when I make recommendations or give ratings, be sure to interpret it correctly.

What I am saying when I post up information is that, based upon my analysis, it looks value or look for value here. I know from experience that I can generally find it. But it doesn’t mean that thing will win or lose, I can’t control that. But ultimately looking for value is how you end up with a successful betting strategy.

To understand how value manifests itself over time take a look at the following chart.

This chart represents a value betting strategy. I just plucked this out because I thought it was a good example. I run multiple strategies on different sports and markets and they all look a bit different. There isn’t really a standard ‘look’ to a chart.

I have an edge, but this graph shows you how variable the results are. As you can see, the road is bumpy but value plays out over the very long term.

Within that mix, you can get long runs where it’s very positive or very negative, but over the long term, you should see your bank produce higher lows during each draw-down. That’s how you know you are achieving value. Once you are certain, you start looking at how scalable the strategy is.

When you are doing well with a result dependent strategy, it’s easy to think you are a god and when you are doing badly it’s easy to think you are an idiot. This is one key reason that people have trouble replicating or even creating successful strategies.

The psychology,  pressure and anxieties just get too much. You almost have to not care about the result. But, of course, that’s really hard to do especially when using real money. It’s even harder if you are reliant on that income.

I’ve learnt to be very level headed, even when things are going fantastically well. That is because I know that will help me cope when things are not going so well. Because of this, an exceptional loss doesn’t feel so bad and a big win feels like it’s just pre-paying a potential loss. All I care about is that I am up at the end of the cycle.

Rather than measure any value-based strategy on a particular day, week or month. You have to measure over a much longer period.

I tend to measure my return by stakes used, that way you can track it even when you grow your stake. If you measure this as a percentage you will see if you are indeed beating the long term as this percentage will stabilise and moderate in your favour. If it starts to regress in percentage terms to the mean, then it’s quite likely you have no edge.

You can see from the dashed red line that the trend is definitely upward. But can also see some of the wild swings in fortune.

Ultimatley I can’t control that, so I don’t fret on it or congratulate myself either. I just know that’s expected behaviour. All I can do is focus relentlessly on looking for opportunities.

Why a value, outcome dependent, P&L can be misleading

Now and again I’ll post a P&L of a value strategy, but it’s important to understand what you are looking at.

You have good and bad days and now and again you go on a nice little run where you get a decent total. But in reality, any total you get, your long term yield is only going to be measured as a percentage of that. On the flip side, a day of full-blooded losses isn’t to count as losses either. As long as you have an edge you keep plugging away and let everything come out in the wash.

The most I have ever ‘earned’ from a value strategy was nearly £30,000 in one day. But of course, I never actually earned this in reality, just a percentage of that. When you have been going as long as I have, you realise that you are going to catch the odd outlier.

On that day I bet on many markets and didn’t lose a single one. Even with the best selection criteria, that’s going to be very rare! But having a P&L in the thousands in a day isn’t that rare, it’s expected. You sort of ‘bank’ that in your mind for days that are negative.

Value Betting versus Betfair trading

If you follow a betting strategy then you will find you get large swings in your P&L, it’s a sure sign that your outcome is result dependent. I may make money on any one day when betting but it’s highly variable. Over one week I’d like to make something and over one month I’d expect to be positive. Over one year you should almost certainly be positive unless you have been very unlucky.

When you are Betfair trading large swings in your P&L shouldn’t be the case. Trading is all about opening a position, closing a position, maybe repeating that process; but ultimately hedging the position for a result means you win whatever the result. As a result, you would expect a trading strategy to produce a smooth upwards sloping line and be devoid of large swings in the P&L.

That is exactly what you see on the next graph which plots one strategy I have been running for just over two years. Most of my trading strategies look similar as I am aiming to win slightly more than I lose with a half-decent strike rate. On this particular chart, you can see how a tweak in the strategy has accelerated the curve fairly recently.

When Betfair trading, I go into each day expecting to profit. I can’t guarantee it, but I expect it.

Because of the number of markets I trade and how I trade them I would be really unlucky to lose over the course of a week.But underlying those facts is that when you are trading you are effectively profiting from the variability that you see when outright betting. You profit from the thing that is the very nemesis of your betting strategy.

Therefore you conclude that by betting and trading, you can have your cake and eat it!

The post Value betting and Betfair trading appeared first on Betfair trading blog | Expert advice from Professional Betfair trade.