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It’s Summer and that means two-card Tuesdays!

We have reached the time of year when Monday and Tuesday racing drops to two cards in the afternoon in the UK.

The impact of just two race meetings

This is an important time of year, as we drop to two race meetings in the UK. That means that the characteristic of meetings on Monday and Tuedays may change from what you have been familiar with recently. Earlier in the week, Racing tends to be lower quality and that combines with the 15-minute gaps in-between the cards leads to change market conditions overall.

Lower quality racing tends to be more volatile for starters. You have horses running that maybe didn’t perform well in their prior race, which then win this time around. When money comes for something, people follow. Ultimately, lower quality racing is tricky to predict. Throw in bigger gaps between races and this means lower liquidity as well. Lower liquidity also means markets are more volatile. It’s a double whammy on the volatility front.

My angle

I know everybody is different, but I often find the cards on a Monday and Tuesday afternoon unappealing. This is primary due to the long gaps between races, particulary when there is no Irish racing on.

The long run in between races means it’s much harder for me to build a decent position in the market. If that position goes wrong, then it’s much harder for me to exit. I prefer races start on time and ten minutes gaps between races. This is the norm and the thing I’ve got familiar with over the years.

When you get large gaps, there is often just not enough money getting matched to really go for it. It’s hard enough on a Monday as it is, but open up a gap to the next race and the per-second volume declines to the point where it becomes much harder for me. Low liquidity is a danger sign for me, a small mistake can cost a lot in this market type for me.

Curiously, Windsor on a Monday evening always trades well, but the afternoon card and Tuesday, in general, can be poor. I really dislike Tuesday evening’s in the summer if it’s predominately low-quality jumps racing. No pun intended, but there is no need to flog a dead horse on two-card Tuesdays.

Of course, everybody trades a different way, and this change may aid your trading. But over many years, I’ve settled on the pattern of easing back a bit when there is less on to focus on better opportunities. It’s worked really well for me. Besides, you need some balance in the summer so you don’t burn out, so this is an opportunity to address that.

Save your gunpowder

You also have this characteristic in the summer, that the better quality stuff appears at the weekend or in multi-day meetings, so that’s my focus. On Saturdays I often have a chuckle as I can often get more on a feature race in one shot than I can get in an afternoon on a Monday or Tuesday.

When expectations are lower and the quality stuff produces such good results, like the Derby, it’s better to focus your energy and effort on the quality opportunities.

Get some balance back

So during this time of the year I try to use the time to relax and do other things generally. I’ll keep an eye on the racing, but I’ll be experimenting with other things. Looking at data. Exploring new ideas, sanitising existing data, Sneaking in a round of golf, you get the picture.

I really enjoy going out on my mountain bike at this time of year. It clears my mind, I get a bit fitter and probably lose a pound or two. That’s about the only time I deliberately try to lose a few pounds!

But when you are trading so intensively in the summer, I treasure these moments when trading is far from my immediate mind.

The post It’s Summer and that means two-card Tuesdays! appeared first on Betfair trading blog | Expert advice from Professional Betfair trade.

How to be a millionaire Betfair trader

A few years ago, I mentioned that I had matched just short of half a million on a busy day.

Naturally, some were a bit sceptical, but in n fact, when you look at what I do and the way that I do, it’s actually quite simple to understand. You will also begin to appreciate exactly what your objective is when you’re actively trading.

The key to matching much higher amounts in the market, is leverage. But not the sort of leverage you see in the financial markets, this is very specifc to sports trading.

My first tip: Don’t worry about the next trade

First of all, let’s deal with this half a million number. If you can imagine that we’re looking at a number of different markets, let’s ask what is true your objective?

Well, funny enough, I believe that your objective is actually not to worry about the next event that you’re trading. You should be looking into the future and asking what am I going to achieve over that period of time.

Even after 20 years of experience, there are still a number of races that I’ll lose on. Why do I lose? It’s usually because I thought it was going to do one thing and it did another. The fact is, there’s a level of entropy in the market that you can’t explain, it’s just there! So if you’re focused on the next trade, that tends to lead to an emotional response when it goes wrong, which you then compound on future markets.

Therefore, the first thing you should do when you’re trading is to think very long term. Let’s say if you work out how many events you’re going to trade over the course of a year, that clearly defines your objective and makes it more achievable.

My second tip: Set an achievable objective

If you said you’re going to trade 10,000 events over the year, then if you are aiming to get a £1 profit per event, would you say that that’s achievable?

You’re going to have to learn to get a positive expectancy and you are going to have to mess around a bit at the lower end for a while. However, that sounds much more achievable and saying I want to make £100 or £200 on the one next trade, or £10,000 on year.

So the first trick that you should use is you look in the long term and you say, what’s your objective over the next week, month or year? Doing it over a year gives you plenty of time to oversee those bumps and ripples, seasonality and all of those other issues that you’re likely to encounter.

If you say I want to make a pound on average, that makes life a lot easier for you. Maybe you want to make £10 on average, whatever your objective is, scale over the long term. Is it realistic to say that you could do ten thousand events in a year? Well, if we take ten thousand and then we divide that by 52, which is the number of weeks in a year, then you end up at around 200 events per week.

Tip three: take advantage of a variety of sports markets

So if you’re going to trade 200 events a week and we divide that by seven, then that’s going to work out just short of about 30 a day. So trading 10000 events over the course of the year, you’re saying can I find 30 opportunities over the course of a day?

Of course, that’s perfectly possible, you’ve got football, cricket, tennis, racing, all manner of things!

Therefore this broader perspective means that even with smaller profits per market you can still gather excellent profits in the long run. You are going for small amounts, but done frequently.

If look at the summer you could get 24 races in the afternoon, 24 in the evening and perhaps you decide to do an Irish race… All of a sudden you have 50 attempts to turnover a certain amount of money.

So even if you have a relatively small bank, let’s say you’ve got a bank of a couple of thousand, and you commit a trade to the market for £500 and then you trade out for a profit on that, you’ve put a thousand pound through the market.

Tip four: getting that profit up

If you are looking at a card or a day that you’ve traded 50 events on, if you trade in and out with £500 on those particular events, then you’ve traded an amazing £50,000 over the course of that day.

You’ve identified 50 markets that you’re going to do something again, whether it’s manually, automatically and that will allow you to actively trade a relatively large number and put a lot of money through the market. Despite the fact you’ve got a small bank, you’re effectively leveraging that bank to enormous proportions.

Any large number multiplied by a very small percentage, which is generally what you get when you’re trading, is going to be a large number in itself. Of course, you need a positive expectancy because any small positive number that turns into a much larger one could happen in the other direction. So sort your expectancy at first, but hopefully, you can see the scale of the opportunity here. You have reached £50,000 with a bank of a couple of grand over the course of one day.

Now, if I just went into the market and did just one trade, there may be markets where that is the right strategy to pursue, but there may be other markets where that’s not the right strategy to pursue. In fact, you get several opportunities within the market.

So let us say, for example, how do we get to half a million? Well, you could actually trade in and out of the market 10 times. This could be over the course of minutes or hours. However, you want to trade, then all of a sudden that 50,000 multiplies by 10 and you’re up to half a million!

So how do we get this to a million pounds?

Well, you could increase your stake and instead of using £500, use a £1000 stake and then suddenly you reach that magic million over the course of one day.

The other option you’ve got as you just put that money through the market repeatedly, you do more and more. So maybe you put through the £1k round trip trade 10 times, or maybe you just use 10 times the amount of money.

Of course, a lot of markets won’t be able to cope with larger amounts of money. So you should always stake according to your ability to get in and out of the market relatively pain-free. If you can do that and you can do it often, then you don’t need to use large amounts of money. Again, even with a small bank, if you put more than one trade through the market, then that effectively leverages your stake to even higher levels.

So let’s think about it, why not trade more than one selection within the market? Effectively you’re leveraging the opportunity there as well

The ultimate thing to do is to do it on more than one runner more than once because then you start reaching those enormous totals, which are perfectly achievable.

Your true trading objective

Of course you need an edge when trading, but how you trade will make that edge more achievable.

If we look at that objective of trading 10,000 markets over the course of the year that will mean, you will need to find about 25 to 30 markets a day. More at peak periods and less in quiet periods. But if you can average that over the course of the year, then you’re going to turn over enormous amounts of money.

But also think about it on an individual bet basis. You can raise your stakes, or you could raise the number of times you use that stake or you can do more than one runner more than one time.

So, can you achieve half a million? That’s relatively straightforward.

If you look at the number of events that you’re likely to trade and how are you going to trade them, you can achieve much higher numbers. Now, of course, you need to do it safely and you need a positive expectancy.

I’m very confident that I can do that, but even if you’re not particularly confident, if you trade at random, you’re more or less going to break even less commission, but you can still take a relatively small stake and put enormous amounts of money through the market.

I ran a test here the other day where I put a £2 bot on the market and at the end of the day it traded over nearly £5,000. Now I was doing it on two runners and I was repeating that trade through the market on a number of occasions. But that shows you what you can achieve with just £2!!!

Checklist to become a millionaire trader

✔︎ First, find many markets.

✔︎ Remember you can put your money through the market once, if you put the money through the market more than once, your turnover is going to go sky rocketing.

✔︎ Create a longt erm objective to help put yourself in perspective if you don’t get that million in a day!

Now, it’s not perfectly easy to do that, but using the tools within that angel, your life is a lot easier and you can do those things. We’ve built it that way in order to give you those sort of opportunities.

Follow this advice and when somebody asks you what you do for a living. You could say I trade millions through the market every week, just don’t tell them it’s on sports markets!!!

The post How to be a millionaire Betfair trader appeared first on Betfair trading blog | Expert advice from Professional Betfair trade.

Placing Bets / Trades Outside the Current Price

The best execution on a betting exchange

As most Betfair users will be familiar with, whenever you place a bet on any market on the Betfair exchange either directly on their website or via third party trading software. When that bet reaches the market if a better price than the one you requested (placed your bet at) is available Betfair will always try to match your bet at that price.

For example, if you place a back bet at odds of 3.50 but there is money available at 4.00 then that’s where they will begin matching your bet. This makes perfect sense, after all, why would you not want to be matched at the higher odds for a greater payout?

Likewise, when laying if you were to place a lay bet at say odds of 5.80 but odds of 5.10 are available, then Betfair will match your bet at 5.10. Again this makes perfect sense, why would you want to take on more liability when you don’t need to?

Depending on the Betfair trading strategy you are deploying at the time, there might be a good reason why you don’t want to automatically be matched at a better price, and instead, you will want to wait for your bet to be placed at a price outside the current odds and only want it matched IF the selection/runner trades or past that price.

Scenario

There are actually quite a few reasons why you might want to do use this strategy.

For example, if you are an in-running horse racing trader and want to back a horse you think has a good chance of winning but its currently priced around 4.5 in a competitive race that is yet to start – but you believe if it runs well during in the race and is in the mix near the end it will likely go onto win and therefore you want to back it – but only IF it’s odds reach 1.9 or less during the race.

Or you could be trading pre-off horse racing market and watching a few runners which are all trading within a tight trading range, but if/when one breaks out the top of it’s trading range you want to try and jump on quick and lay it to hopefully grab a swing trade or even just a few ticks of directional scalping etc.

In the image below if one or both the runners breakthrough their resistance (top of its trading range) I’m expecting it to continue drifting so want to lay it as soon as that happens, so I’ve just clicked in the two cells which I’ve highlighted on the lay sides, all I need yo do now is sit back and wait, (or look for other opportunities elsewhere), knowing if the first runner breaks out the top of its range and trades at 3.45 (or above) and/or the second runner breaks out of its range and reaches 4.8 or above a lay bet will be placed at the best price by the Bet Angel.

This way of placing a bet/trade has been possible for many years when using automation (triggered betting). But Bet Angel also gives manual traders the ability to do this type of bet/trade.

You would do this by using an innovative feature in Bet Angel called ‘Servants’. This is just one of a thousand+ tasks a servant can do for you.

You can give it a simple rule to place a back or lay bet at the price you want using the stake you want. Once the Servant is set up all you need do is point your mouse course at the price the bet is to be triggered at and push a key of your choice. With the exception of the key push it’s exactly the same as if placing a regular bet – the Servant will then monitor that selection/runner and fire the bet for you when/if that price is reached.

For in-running traders this means you can click and set your price then sit back, relax and enjoy the race, as sort of ‘Set and forget’ – with no need to then keep staring at the ladders waiting for the right time to place your bet/trade. You can of course change you mind at any time and choose a different price for the bet to be triggered at or stop the bet from being placed altogether.

Just like when placing a regular bet/trade on Bet Angel you can also make use of global settings with the servants rule to use options like offsetting, offset bet with greening and stop losses etc, but with Bet Angel you can do even more than that.

Adding Additional Conditions

As is the case with almost every feature of Bet Angel you can go much further than this.

For example, you might also want to ensure other criteria is met before the Servant is able to place the bet at your specified price. You could want to see if the favourites price has shortened by a specified number of ticks during the last few seconds/minutes, and/or the current book% meets your specified criteria. Or maybe you want to check the traded volume of the selection is increasing consistently enough over the last ‘X’ seconds (and its not just a spike from a single bet that’s caused the move).

If these or whatever condition/s you set are not all met then the bet won’t be placed for you even if the specified price is reached.

You’ll also have a speed advantage over other manual traders. Even the most alert trader will never be able to react faster than a Servant placing the bet – and that’s without looking all over the screen to see if other runners have moved, the book% is right, the recent volume is good etc etc

As you can see in the image below, the list of conditions allows you to test for almost any situation before the bet is placed for you. Ths signal and stored value options are particularly powerful as these allow you to test and check almost anything you can think of in the market, but there’s more about that in other blogs.

Creating the Servant

If you want a Servant to place bets outside the current price for you then and enable you to deploying strategies similar to those described above then you don’t even have to create it yourself because you can download and import a ready-made servant to do exactly this from the Bet Angel forum.

Once you’ve imported it into your Bet Angel you can use it as it is to quickly and easily place bets outside the current price or edit it to your own requirements including adding your own parameters and conditions etc to give you a simple but powerful tool in your arsenal to gain an advantage over other manual traders in todays markets.  

The post Placing Bets / Trades Outside the Current Price appeared first on Betfair trading blog | Expert advice from Professional Betfair trade.

Formula one – Trading the Monaco Grand Prix

Betfair trading or sports betting is often done on most major sports, but often you can find opportunities in nice niches. I spent a bit of time looking at Formula 1 and uncovered a few unusual opportunities. The Monaco Grand Prix was one of the first circuits I studied and it worth a look ahead of its annual return this weekend.

Monaco Grand Prix

The Monaco Grand Prix is one of those iconic races, a big sporting event in itself outside of motorsport. I was lucky enough in a former life to explore this part of the world and a drive around Monaco and a visit to the famous Casino of Monte Carlo was obviously the order of the day! Just a shame they only have virtual horse racing in Monaco! It’s a must-visit place and curious in its layout and institutions including the “prince palace”.

Formula one betting markets

There are quite a few betting markets available for Formula one racing on the Betfair exchange, but the mainstay of the markets are the drivers and constructor championships. The day of race markets are quite liquid but probably not as large as you are used to on conventional betting exchange markets. The main liquidity will be on the ‘win’ market and the ‘podium’ market.

My general Betfair trading strategy for uncertain markets is to work hard at looking for that uncertainty. I’ll try and identify where that could occur and how to profit from it. If you are using trading software like Bet Angel, do some research on staking by liability as that will fix your largest losses when trading a market like this, but give more upside the more uncertainty there is in the market.

In my experience of trading formula one markets on Betfair is that the podium market throws up some decent opportunities. Crashes, mechanical failures and random ‘incidents’ can cause these markets to shift around significantly and many a short price has been defeated in these betting markets.

Formula one can often be perceived as being a bit boring. You could be forgiven for thinking that if you qualify on pole in Monaco you will win and if you are betting in-play then every other driver is a lay bet. The tight street circuit is a big test for anybody who is attempting to overtake, but my stats paint a different picture.

Street vs. Race circuits

Monaco was one of the first circuits I profiled and it was because I expected it to throw off some definable characteristics. But what it taught me was just how different street circuits are to custom race tracks. This is fairly obvious in hindsight! Custom-built circuits provide a very different experience for a driver than a street circuit. Street circuits are narrow and therefore make open-wheeled racing a bit of a challenge. Not only in terms of overtaking but also in terms of avoiding accidents.

When you look at all the circuits, Monaco has about the same retirement rate as other street circuits. But throw in a bit of rain and that number shoots up to well above normal. Where it isn’t as demanding as you would expect is on the mechanics of the car. Monaco ranks quite low for retirement due to a mechanical failure with many other courses above it, but where it ‘excels’ is in accidents where it moves up the grid. Depending on how many years you measure it’s on the podium for most accidents. It’s interesting to see that the rate of retirements has fallen over the years. But not quite as fast as the overall retirement rate. So you can conclude that despite all the improvements in safety and performance, Monaco remains a tricky circuit.

Winners and podiums finishers

So how does this translate into podiums from starting position on the grid? Not as well as you may think!

If you look how often places one to three on the grid go on to get a podium finish, you find Monaco only just scrapes into the top third. But that is somewhat dependant on exactly what you are measuring. Pole position has grabbed a place 68% of the time, second on the grid 63% and third on the grid pulls it off 58% of the time.

But the winner is almost certain to come from those top three qualifiers. A whopping 95% of our sample returned a winner from first to third place on the grid. The front row produced a winner 79% of the time and the only time since 1996 that the winner did not come from that select group was in 1996. Back then Oliver Panis won from 14th on the grid. How did he achieve this remarkable feat? Only four cars finished that year, so the only cars left running by the end of the race were the ones who had successfully avoided the chaos at the front of the field. The culprit, rain. Between the warm-up session and the race, heavy rain fell.

For the longshot to come in at massive odds or to pull off some really profitable trading, pray for rain!

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