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Know your predicted profit after a Goal

Succesful Betfair football trading

If you are a Betfair football trader wouldn’t it be great to know what your profit or loss would look like after the next goal? Whatever your Betfair trading strategy, it would obviously help.

This is important as, to trade successfully, you need to ‘frame’ your trade around a specific opportunity and fully understand the pay off. Knowing that one piece of information can help you decide how to manage your trade, know if it’s worthwhile and also where to pitch your exit trade/s at.

With Bet Angel you have the Betfair trading software and options to do exactly that. You can easily display your predicted profit or loss following a goal on your ladder or one-click screen. This profit/loss is shown in real-time and dynamically adjusts and updates as the time of the match progresses as the time decays, allowing you to adapt your strategy as the match progresses based on what’s happening in it.

Scenario – (Laying the Draw and show the Predicted Profit after a Goal)

For this example, I’ll use one of the most popular Betfair football trading strategies, lay the draw. In the image below I’ve already layed the draw pre-KO and can see straight away if the home team scores the opening goal I’ll make around £21.28, if the away team score first I’ll make a little bit more at around £30.19.

As the match gets underway and the time begins to decay the impact of a goal will continually effect the price the draw odds will reform at, as this changes so will your potential profit and this is continually updated for you in real time by the software so you can always be adjusting any exit/greening position accordingly while also being able to evaluate your risk/reward at all times during the match.

By contrast if you were to lay the draw in a match with a strong favourite, you will know you’ll have a good profit if the fav scored but if the under dog scores first this will cause the draw odds to shorten and put you in a losing position. In the image below you can see after laying the draw with a £10 stake, if the home team (the fav) scores first the predicted profit is £6.00, where as if the away team (under dog) scores first the predicted loss is -£10.39.

If you want to look at where the odds will at any point during the match but in the pre match period. It’s worth checking out Soccer Mystic which will give you this information.

How this is Done

To do this involves the use of the ‘+1 Markets’ from the fixture, as detailed in this similar blog which shows how you can displays the predicted odds after a goal on your Ladder or One-Click trading screens.

This works on most football matches where the appropiate markets are available on the betting exchanges. Whether you have a betting strategy or a trading one, it should help in the long term.

Just to give a brief re-cap of whats in that blog, by using the +1 markets these are effectively handicap markets which will show were the prices will reform around if either team were to score 1 more goal, then using Stored Values in Bet Angels advanced automation we can use those odds and look up the corresponding profit (or loss) against that price – and that’s what gets displayed to you.

Going back to the image at the top of this blog showing we’ll make £21.28 if the home team scores and, around £30.19 if the away team scores first if you were to scroll up to those values in the trade profit column on the ladder you’ll see the corresponding odds they relate to therefore you’d place your exit/greening bet around 4.7 if it looked more likely the home team will score first and around 5.4 if it looks like being the away team that will score first.

Displaying the Predicted Profit/Loss on your Ladder

Just as in that previous example all the files needed to display the predicted profits above your ladders have already been created for you to download and import into your Bet Angel. In total there are four files required which can all be downloaded from the following post on the Bet Angel forum

Once you have downloaded the files you would use them as follows.

Display Predicted Profit after a Goal.bls – this is a ladder settings file and needs to be imported into your ladder settings area, this will then display the ladder exactly as you see in the image above (you can of course use the Bet Angel ladder settings editor and edit any part of your ladder layout).

Profit Predictor after a Goal (Home).baf – this is a basic rules file and needs to be applied to the home team +1 markets in Guardian
Profit Predictor after a Goal (Away).baf – identical to the above rule but needs to be applied to the away team +1 markets in Guardian
Display Predicted Profit after a Goal (Match Odds).baf – this final rules file needs to be applied to the match odds market.

In the screenshot below you can see I’ve added the match odds market, the home team +1 and away team +1 for three fixtures and applied the relevant ‘Profit Predictor after Goal’ to the +1 markets and Display Predicted Profit after a Goal to the match odds market.

For example, the first fixture is Schalke 04 Vs Leverkusen
So, the Goal Odds Predictor (A) file is applied to Leverkusen +1 market (because Leverkusen are the away team)
And the Goal Odds Predictor (H) file is applied to Schalke 04 +1 market (because Schalke 04 are the home team)

And that’s all there is to it, when you open the match odds market of that fixture and place a bet on the draw (it can be a back or lay bet) it will continually update to display your predicted P/L should a goal be scored. You can place additional bets at anytime to add to or reduce your position and the predicted P/L will continually update

NB,To provide more accurate results I’ve included a condition that there must be greater that £1000 matched on the +1 market, so if you don’t see any values on your ladder then it will be because this condition has not yet been satisfied.

Trading the Home/Away Teams

With the rules file above you are not just limited to trading on the draw, you can use the same rules files to view your predicted profits (and losses) no matter whether your trading the home team, away team or the draw, all you need to do is make a simple change to the selection each rule is applied to.

This is done on the general tab of each of the rules in Guardian, so if you wanted to see your P/L from trading the home team you’d change the ‘Applies to selection’ 1 on the three rules files.

The post Know your predicted profit after a Goal appeared first on Betfair trading blog | Expert advice from Professional Betfair trade.

Betfair Trading day to day horse racing markets

After trading big meetings coming back to earth requires a change in mindset, when you go back to your day to day trading. This blog post looks into how even though big meetings can seem like the best way to make the most money, trading everyday individual racing markets can provide an amazing profit in the long run.

Coming back to reality

I’ve made it no secret that I like those big meetings, so what makes them so great?

My strike rate is exceptionally high at these big meetings and this means I’m very likely to get a positive trade out of any individual race and a big result on the meeting. With this in mind, am I going to stick in fivers as tenners on each trade? No, I’m going go for it and you’re going to throw as much money at it as you can.

That’s why I like the big meetings because know I’m probably likely to win…It’s just a question of how hard can I push it!

Personally, I push really hard during these big meetings and that’s why I get those big results. However, big results are typically unusual. Therefore, you shouldn’t set your bar at a five, six hundred or consecutive amounts like that – you want to set your bar much lower. The reason for that is the market in general can’t tolerate bigger staking.

So when we transition out of a big meeting back to more standard fodder, you’re going to have to reappraise the way that you trade, but that’s fine, that’s exactly what you do. I flex my trading style depending upon what’s in front of me.

How I change my approach each week

It is the same coming out of a big meeting, there’s no way when I look at an ordinary racing card that I’m going to be using two and a half grand stakes to trade a race day because the market just will not take it. Using large stakes in small markets means the market will do one of two things. It could:

1) stop the activity in the market at that particular point as I’m trying to get an order filled and it won’t pass through it.

2) the market could get scared and start running away from your order and therefore you can’t get filled when you’re attempting to close your order.

It’s important to understand that you’ve got to flex in and out depending upon what’s in front of you. If the market’s got loads of money coming through, you’re expecting the match amount matched to be very high, then you can increase your stakes and you can really do a lot within that particular market.

But if that’s not there, then you just pull your risk down by reducing your level of stakes. While it’s lovely to see those big greens that I post after big meetings. It’s not realistic to think that that’s typically how the market trades. Only at a big meeting like Ascot, Cheltenham or the Guineas you can sort of expect to get some big totals.

Of course, if you’re starting out or you’re an intermediate trader, you’re not going to have enough practice at these big meetings to be able to push really hard. This will mean that you may not get the result you wanted.

The thing that I’ve noticed at Cheltenham this year was that the queue size is getting smaller and that’s because the market’s getting a little bit more volatile. So that’s actually bringing in the opportunity for people to trade it a bit more conventionally like you see on a day to day basis.

Assess your risk

But as we transition out of those big meetings and in to the normal type of trading that you expect to see, it’s really worth trying to stay out of trouble, not doing anything stupid. You have to remember that it is really a case of trying to get a good result overall.

It may not sound impressive, but getting it is worth getting an average of £10 a race. I say this to put some context of when you’ve just seen me post a P&L of £500 that I’ve managed to achieve at a Cheltenham or a big meeting. However, it’s those everyday results which are the ones that become really important because over the course of the year, you could easily do 10,000 of those!

So if you can average £10 a race, for example (I’m not setting an expectation here – a random statistic!) and you’re doing ten thousand races – that’s obviously a lot of money you can make in the end. You could even set it much smaller and still achieve something great, but the way that it arrives is going to be very different from what you would expect at a major meeting.

At a major meeting, I expect a string of profits and I’m pushing as hard as I can to make those profits as big as possible. Every now and again, I screw up and one of those races that really should be in a profit isn’t and it just falls off the edge of a cliff. It’s at that point that I realise that I pushed too hard.

It’s rare to get all of them absolutely correct and you usually mess up on one or two. However, when I’m trading during a ‘normal’ week I’m going to be very defensive compared to big meetings. I’m going to lower my stakes right down and I’m planning not to make any mistakes.

My final profit comes from a combination of profits and losses, looking for an overall average profit figure.

Understanding the bigger picture

When trading in every day markets, I’m not looking to go on some ridiculous run or bag some enormous amounts of profit on each individual race or market. The way that I’m going to do it is I’m going to say, ‘I’m going to trade 30, 40 races over the course of the day and I’m going to end up ahead of things by the end of the day.’

So, for example, if you have a strike rate of 75% and then you’ll make a tenner 75% of the time, but you lose £20 25% of the time, you end up plus £10 over the mix of 10, 20, 30 or so races. So the strike rate and the amount you win and lose are going to interact quite heavily. The way that they often interact tends to be uneven. I’ve given you a very clear number here and people love clear defined numbers, but it never works like that.

The reality is you’re P&L is going to be more like, -£5, + £10, -£7, +£20, -£30, +£75…

It’s a really bumpy journey all the way along and at the end of that you’ll end up with a strike rate of some level, 60, 70% or something. It’s the mixture of your strike rate and the profits and losses that deliver you the profit at the end of the week.

Keep chipping away!

Keep chipping away even if you think you won’t get there in the end!

Now, I’m going bring up a spreadsheet here of some activity way back in 2007.

If you look at the way that the P&L was created, I ended up on a very big total by the end of the month. As you can see the total was made up of loads of little positives and negatives and I just kept on chipping away.

Circled in green is my P&L for this day in 2007

The methodology that I have is that I chip away at the market and I’m trying to get a profit at relatively low risk.

I don’t know how that profit is going to arrive – it’s basically going to be positive here, negative, positive, positive, negative. I’m just trying to make a good decision based upon what I see in the market. Generally, what I’m trying to do is avoid a loss. I’m trying to get myself in the position where the chance of a loss is much lower and then profits arrive off of the back of that.

That’s generally how I tend to trade, trying to get myself into a good position where a loss or a chance of a loss is minimised and then I’m letting the profit run. If the profit starts to look good, then I may just push a little bit harder and try and get that profit a little bit higher.

But generally, the sequence of events almost looks random. If you look at the progression by looking at the equity curve over the course of this particular month in January 2007, you can see the equity curve seems to just smoothly go upwards with a little couple of bumps.

My equity curve for January 2007

You will get the odd cock up and the odd positive result, but generally, the equity curve rises smoothly. When you look at the individual results, you’ll notice that there’s a right old mixture in there. Some are quite positive, some are negative and there’s no clearly defined path. If you’re trading properly, that’s typically what you tend to find.

If you wind forward over a number of years, that’s more or less exactly the way that my P&L looks outside of a big meeting. I’m getting little profits, I’m getting little negatives and overall it’s all coming out in the mix by the end of the week, by the end of the month, by the end of the year. The advantage of doing it this way is the more markets you trade than generally, the more money that you make.

Finding the balance in an unbalanced environment

You’re trying to get as many trades through as possible, in as many markets. The more that you do that, knowing that you have a positive expectancy, means that you typically end up over any particular period. That’s why I like racing, because those positivesand negatives balance themselves out really, really quickly and over the course of the week, you can do pretty well.

Even though you’re probably not going on any particular long winning run – just think about it you’re not really going on any particular long losing run either!

The way that the results appear won’t be random because you’ve got some logic in there, but they’re just not coming in a regular pattern. That can be frustrating at times because you can be chipping away for ages and nothing will happen. But then you get that big result or, of course, you could get a negative. Then you would just gradually chip away at it with loads of positives.

Why positive expectancy catches out new traders

Sometimes this is what catches people out when trading because it doesn’t have that nice, smooth approach. It can be a little bit stressful when you’re having a bad day, on the contrary having a good day can lead to overconfidence.

So typically, my attitude & desire, when we trade on a normal week. Is just to do the best I can in every individual market. The goal is to try and minimise where I’m likely to make a loss by maximising the entry positions within the market and managing the trade well. I’ll also adjust my staking to help. Then I’ll continue to chip away at each market as frequently as I can to try to end up to a bigger total at the end of whatever period I’m measuring over.

When you first start, I suggest you measure over a month, but maybe when you’re a bit more experienced you’d want to measure over a week. By measuring on an individual day or checking your P&L as it is progressing is a disaster because it will influence the way that you trade the next market. Whether you’re behind or ahead will lead alter the way that you trade the next market.

So all I do is just chip away each market, do the best that I can. And then I look at the P&L at the end of the day and go, ‘oh, yeah, that went well! Or maybe I’ll do better tomorrow.’

But it’s also important that when you’re coming out of a big meeting, don’t believe these big meetings are the norm!

The mundane stuff is where a lot of the money comes from and it’s going to be small positives and small negatives, but adding up over a period of time. So, prepare yourself for those types of markets as they make up the majority of what you will do over a year.

Get those right and approach them in the right manner and you will do well over the course of the year.

The post Betfair Trading day to day horse racing markets appeared first on Betfair trading blog | Expert advice from Professional Betfair trade.

Jump on an opportunity with a ‘Quick Bet’

Special features that help you trade more effectively

Football matches they have a tendency to go off all simultaneously. The one we’re looking at goes off this evening, but there are loads of matches underway at this moment in time all over the place and it can be quite difficult to trade on them or find those markets quickly if you want to actively trade them.

However on the latest versions of Bet Angel we’ve introduced a few new features that will allow you to do this and I’m going to show you a couple of them here If you want to trade lots of football matches quickly and easily, this is probably the best way for you to find the matches and actively trade them.

There are some clever things you can do on Bet Angel so for example if we have a match that we’re looking if you right-click you can select the whole range of the things that you can do – display it on a different screen or you can spawn a new market so it’s possible to actually display a new market and have multiple markets up. However, your screen can get quite cluttered so we do have a specialist tool which is Guardian. This is the G that you can see here which will allow you to bring in Multiple markets.

Now you could do the same thing, we can pick some market from here, drag and drop them. But there are many better ways of doing that. You can select the market search for it but we’ve also got coupons and dedicated tabs. I’m not actually going to use the dedicated Tab for football here but what I’m actually going to do is use a coupon to bring in all of the matches that are running at this particular moment in time.

Bet Angel Coupons

Coupons are something that were introduced in version 1.52 or higher and the concept behind a coupon is to display information quickly and easy for you but not just the top-level also the submarkets, which means it’s perfect with something like football.


What we’ve done within Bet Angel is included a range of coupons, so I’m going to be using the English Premier League multi-column coupon here. If I click on that Bet Angel will go off, find those markets for me and display them in a list. All that we need to do is add hem to Guardian and hey presto all of a sudden the information gets displayed.

If you want to bring it all the football matches over the course of a particular session, you can set up the coupon to however you want it.

Probably the best way for you to fiddle around with this to to bring a coupon like this premier English Premiership multi coupon and click on the settings editor and then go and play around with it from there. We include loads of examples with Bet Angel itself and we have them on the forum as well so if you go to the settings area you can import those coupons and bring them in to Bet Angel or you can just create your own.

EPL Coupon

The one that we’ve created here is bringing in all of the Premier League matches and you can see that all you need to do to do that was click on Guardian, click on coupon, select this particular item from the drop-down menu and then do add and apply and there they are. They all in front of us magically allowing us to have a look at each of these individual markets.

If you look at the coupon you can see that it’s displayed it in a sort of very large list here. What you may want to do is select individual markets. You can see the drop-down menu has populated and allows us to have look at what’s going on in each of these individual matches from within here with just a couple of clicks.

Bet Angel Watch List

You can also see when I clicked on this area we had additional options. We could show all of the events that are listed, we can do an event that is only selected in Guardian, or we can use the option to show something that’s under the mouse cursor. The idea is just to make it really quick and easy for you to get involved within the market and find a market the required and do something in it. It’s very, very simple to do!

Bet Angel – ‘Quick bets’

If you are using Bet Angel version 1.53 or higher you have the benefit of a feature called ‘quick bets’.

Quick bets are a neat way to quickly get a bet / trade into the market when you spot an opportunity. You could be anywhere on Bet Angel and you see something, just want to get on quickly. To do this use a quick bet.

You do have options at the top of the watch list where the coupon is created so you may want to examine some of those options. But one of the key ones you need to look at is when a price is clicked, what will Bet Angel do? It can do nothing, it can display it on the one-click screen, the ladder, it can spawn a new one-click screen, it can spawn a new ladder if you want to do multiple trading screens on one screen.

You can see here on version 1.53 or above also we’ve also displayed the Quick Bet ticket. What you can actually do with the Quick Bet ticket is you’re looking at a market, something happened in a match, you quickly select the match that you’re interested in and then you can just go into the market, click the button and then Quick Bet tab will come up.

Betfair Quick Bet Ticket

A quick bet be made to behave in different ways, so it’s worth checking out the settings to ensure you configure it the way you wish. To find the settings on Bet Angel for quick bets click on the spanner for the general Bet Angel settings. When they appear, click on the ‘Behaviour’ tab and then you will find the quick bet ticket settings at the bottom of that tab.

When opening a ticket, you can reuse a single ticket, or you can have multiple tickets. You can also decide what happens when you’re reusing a ticket. You also have the option of what the ticket looks like and you can also affect the way that the toolbar buttons appear as well.

If you right-click on a market selection menu, in Guardian, a coupon or on a watch list. You will be given the option to use a ‘Quick bet’. You just need to point your mouse at a market and right click and that’s it.

Bet Angel Quick Bet
A Quick Bet Ticket

The concept is that it will allow you to basically sort of go ‘oh, I need to do this’ and then it will appear on the market below without disrupting your main trading screen. It makes it really easy to just sort of go ‘I need to do a position here’, ‘I need to position there’ and therefore what market do I need to jump in and out of what am I going to do.

The key concept of using Quick Bet tickets and Guardian specifically with coupons, is that you can look after all of the markets are going on in the background and then you can click on any one of these prices to spawn a Quick Bet ticket.

Of course, you can trade on the one-click screen and the ladder. But basically the Quick Bet ticket is another way of being able to do things on Bet Angel, but better than that it’s a really really quick and simple way of doing. So if you need to do something quickly you don’t need to hunt around finding the markets available, it’s immediately in front of you.

If you trade football or any other sport with a subset of Markets underneath the main market, then this will be absolutely perfect for you.

The post Jump on an opportunity with a ‘Quick Bet’ appeared first on Betfair trading blog | Expert advice from Professional Betfair trade.

Setting up additional VPS users | Windows Server

When you use a VPS with Windows server edition installed you are provided by default with one user account and one adminsitrator account.

This is because Windows server is licensed to one user, but requires an administrator account to setup and access that user. You can add or change any users on the VPS so you can have two seperate log-in areas to the VPS.

These areas are not shared and will be treated as two seperate Windows sesssions when you log into them. Therefore will share resources across your platform so any configuration you use will effectively half if you run two sessions. You may want to consider a higher specification VPS to ensure that each session has enough power to run independantly.

To set up a second username on your VPS, please following these steps: –

Click on the Windows icon in the bottom left of the VPS then click on ‘Windows Administrative tools’

This will bring up the ‘Administrative tools’ section. When in that area click on the ‘Computer Management’ option

When that section appears, double click on the ‘Local Users and Groups’ section. Then right click underneath the existing users you see and this will give you the option to create a new user: –

Enter the new user details you require as indicated on box that appears. Be careful to select or deselect the ‘User must change password’ option to ensure you have correctly set up the new user. This is useful if you are giving access to somebody else who requires a secure connection and wants to set their own password.

Once the new user account is created you need to assign ‘rights’ to that user.

These can come in many forms, which we will not explain here. But typically you would assign certain rights to each user depending on how they wanted to access the server. So in this case we want to assing rights for the new user to have access to the server via the remote desktop. You may also wish to make this new user an administrator.

To assign rights for this new user to access the server via remote desktop, follow these steps: –

  • Click on the ‘Groups’ folder
  • Select ‘Remote Desktop Users’
  • Click on the ‘Add’ button
  • Type the username name in the empty text box
  • Check the username is correct
  • Click on OK to complete this action

You should now have succesfully set up a new user and given them access to the server via Remote Desktop.

The post Setting up additional VPS users | Windows Server appeared first on Betfair trading blog | Expert advice from Professional Betfair trade.