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Horse racing | Rule 4 deductions for withdrawals

Anybody who has been close to, own, or rides a horse will know they flighty animals and that extends to their behaviour when they are racing.

I never knew the importance of a jockey until I started really understanding horse racing, but handlers and jockeys can have a lot of influence over the way a horse is prepared and produced during a race. Keeping a horse ‘happy’ or maintaining it’s temperament can be a tricky business, especially with sprinters who are bred to be highly strung types.

Unfortunately, it’s a fairly regular occurrence that a horse can misbehave and sometimes refuses to load in starting stalls or refuses to go to post. When this occurs the horse is withdrawn from the race and a Rule 4 betting deduction is applied to a betting market.

What is a ‘Rule 4’?

Rule 4, or Rule 4(c) given its full title, is an agreed industry standard which protects layers in any market in the case of non-runners. You should see these terms replicated on any betting site as they are applied as standard terms in the industry.

If you take a price on a horse or greyhound in a race after the final declarations are made, and one or more of the others are then declared non-runners, the original price will no longer reflect the real chance of winning the race. When a rule 4 is applied this will reduce your pay-out should your selection win, with the reduction depending on the price at the withdrawn runner.

How often does horse get withdrawn from a race?

The chance of a horse not starting a race is quite common, but this is more a function of the number of runners you get in a horse race.

Each day you could get seven or more races at a meeting and there could be three to six meetings run in a day. Each of those races will contain an average of ten runners, so on any one day, you could have 420 or more horses running.

Expecting all 420 horses to behave themselves and start all races as expected, is a bit of a longshot. So the odds of a withdrawn horse on any one day is actually quite high. There may also be more than one per race, the most I have ever seen was in one race was six, reducing a field of 11 to just 5 runners.

How a Rule 4 is applied on a betting exchange

Betting exchanges apply deductions in a slightly different manner to traditional bookmakers and sportsbooks. This is due to the unique way that a betting exchange works. Rule 4 deductions are still applied.

There are some key differences when applying a Rule 4 deduction on a betting exchange.

The first is that any lay bets that account for 2.5% of the market or less are voided. This means that backers of one or more horse, for example when you are applying the Betfair trading strategy of dutching, will benefit when a horse is withdrawn in this manner. But layers will not see their bets adjusted.

The Betfair betting exchange and other bettings exchanges, have to strike a price as which a horse is withdrawn. The industry, in general, will use the starting price or the price at the time of withdrawal by the stewards. But on betting exchanges, the price of a rule 4 is known in advance and is published on each runner and is known as the ‘reduction factor’.

In the example we have provided below, you can see the reduction factor was nearly 25% which more or less corresponds to decimal odds of 4.00. If this horse was withdrawn, then all bets elsewhere in this betting market would be adjusted down by 25%.

Withdrawn horses and false in-play markets

It’s important to understand that a runner may be withdrawn before a race starts at any moment. So this could be 24 hours before the start, or just as the race is about to start.

But it is also possible that the runner may be included in the ‘in-play’ part of the market despite the fact that it did not run! This will significantly distort the settlement of the market after the race has been run and if you are betting or Betfair trading inplay, you could be betting into a false market. Only when the race is completed will the rule 4 deduction be applied.

Betfair provide a full calculation on their website.

Checking to see if a horse has been withdrawn

If you see that you are missing some bets on your Betfair account, but Bet Angel has clearly shown they were placed. It’s quite likely that one horse or more was withdrawn.

If you want to check what happened in any one particular race the British Horse racing authority stewards will provide the information on their twitter feed.

The post Horse racing | Rule 4 deductions for withdrawals appeared first on Betfair trading blog | Expert advice from Professional Betfair trade.

Connecting to your VPS using an Android tablet

If you are using an Android tablet and Bet Angel via a VPS, a Virtual private server, then you will need to go through the following steps to connect to your VPS.

Connecting to a remote server

A virtual private server, or a remote server, is a fancy name for a PC which, rather than being on your desktop, is located in a datacentre. The server acts and behaves, in general, like a normal Windows PC and can be used as such.

You can install & run any software on the remote server, just like a local PC. You can also browse the internet and perform other functions on the remote server. Therefore, once connected, you can use it just like a normal PC.

There are some differences in terms of the way a remote server is managed, these are different to a normal PC. So it is recommended that, if you have never managed a remote server before, you leave the settings as you see them when you first use the server.

You need some RDP client software

To connect to a remote server, you need some client software to RDP to the server. This sounds complicated but is very simple, it’s just that the technology industry likes to use fancy names to describe simple processes.

To cut through the gobbledygook, you are the using the client software. You will connect to the server. You do this via some RDP software. ‘RDP’ stands for remote desktop protocol and this is the way you receive information from the server.

The way this works is rather clever. Rather than transferring large amounts of data between you are the server, the RDP client just uses image changes it can see on the server, compresses them and sends them to your software for you to see what is happening on the server. This means it looks and feels like you are using the server, but in fact it’s all taking place remotely. When you move your mouse, it moves on the server and so on.

Downloading some RDP software

There are lots of choices of remote desktop software for Android devices. If you go to the Google play store and search for ‘remote desktop’ you will see plenty. We recommend starting with Microsoft Remote Desktop as it’s easy to use, and free! We searched for “Remote Desktop” to bring up this list.

Download and install the software and following the remaining steps to connect to your server.

Connecting to your VPS

Start up your Microsoft remote desktop software then click on the ‘+’ sign in the top right hand corner and add a ‘Desktop’ session.

You may find that the software automatically tries to connect to a desktop nearby. If it does this it will displaying the ‘Desktop detection’ message. You will need to ignore this and any desktop sessions it finds locally. Just click on ‘Add manually’ to set up your VPS.

Adding your Server details

When you click on ‘Add manually’ you will be presented with a window where you can enter your server details. You will need to enter the details we have provided to you via email when you bought the VPS service.

You may be asked to add a user account. If you are asked to do this then this would add this as required using the information we have sent to you in a set up email. Normally your initial username would be ‘Administrator’ and the initial password will also be in your set up instructions which are sent to you.

You are nearly done!

If you have completed the above steps correctly then you will see a new window appear on the Microsoft remote desktop panel. You can enter more than one desktop if you wish and can use this main panel on the software to control more than one server.

Double clicking the icon of your server will show a screen that confirms that it is connecting to your server. After a few moments, you server desktop screen will appear and you can start using it.

The post Connecting to your VPS using an Android tablet appeared first on Betfair trading blog | Expert advice from Professional Betfair trade.

Key trading points, automatically or with a click!

Bet Angel v1.55 see’s yet another innovate feature added to Bet Angel already highly customizable Betfair ladder trading screen, this new feature is called ‘Markers’.

As the name suggests ‘Markers’ allow the user to highlight areas of interest to them on the ladder screen. Markers are fully customizable allowing the user to highlight any cell/s or row on the ladder using top/bottom or side lines quickly and easily with a full border or the filling of the whole cell. Markers can be placed in any or all columns, ie, the odds column, traded volume column, odds, back/lay columns etc.

There are many reasons and advantages to using ‘Markers’, and this blog will show just a few of these as examples and how to configure them.

Cross-Over Odds and Key Prices

In the first image I’ve created markers to highlight all the cross-over odds (2.0, 3.0, 4.0, 6.0, 10.0 etc) by filling the cells white, I’ve also created markers to highlight where the key bookmakers fractional odds are on the ladder using a white border, ie, decimal odds of 2.10 is 11/10 in fractional odds, 2.20 is 6/5, 2.50 is 5/4 etc, all these key prices are now easy to see at a glance.

To create ‘Markers’ is very easy, begin by clicking on the spanner icon while on the ladder screen to open the Ladder settings editor, then go onto the ‘Markers Tab’, from there you will be able to customize and configure the ‘Style’, ‘Colour’, ‘Columns’ and ‘Prices to be marked’. The image below shows you the settings I used to create the ‘Markers’ on the ladder screen above.

In addition to setting markers as fixed prices they can also be set using stored values from servants or Automation rules, this gives them a further level of flexabiliy and makes them even more dynamic and even able to change automatically depending on the criteria you give them.

For example you might want to set a marker on the high/low traded price and have them continually update automatically as new high/lows are reached, allowing you to clearly see at a glance where a price of a selection has touched during a chosen period.

Display Markers from Servants & Automation Rules

In the next image I’ve taken a ready-made Servant you can download from the Bet Angel forum. Once started on a selection this Servant will begin storing the value of the highest and lowest back/lay prices reach. As you can see, I’ve started it on the first two ladders (at different times) the markers now make it clear to see the high/low prices these selections have touched since I started the Servant.

This works very simply, the Servant already has rules to store the value of the highest lay price of a selection with a stored value named ‘high’ And the lowest back price of a selection with a stored value named ‘low’

All we need to do now, is set up the ‘Marker’ in the Bet Angel Ladder settings area to look up the name of the shared stored value and configure how you want the marker displayed on your ladder screen. This time for the ‘Price to be marked’ option instead of using a ‘fixed price’ we’ll use ‘Shared Stored Value’, new fields will appear were you can input the stored value details. For this example we need to look for a stored value named ‘high’.

We then need to click the ‘Add Marker’ button to create another marker, this one will be to mark the price of the shared stored value named ‘low’, I will of course also be changing the columns option to the back column and using a different colour to fill the cell with.

Once that’s been done and you’ve saved the ladder settings you’re ready to go, just ensure you have that ladder settings profile selected on your ladder trading screen then start the servant on whichever selection/s you want to store the hi/lo prices on and you will see the prices marked for you.

Using the servant from the forum you can at any time start the servant on the same selection again and it will clear the current hi/lo prices marked and begin storing new hi/lo’s from that time onwards.

Point & Click to set Markers on Cells or Rows

Another way you might want to use a Marker is to manually place one on the fly to highlight a cell or row of cells where you have seen something of interest, perhaps you’ve spotted large amounts of unmatched money keep appearing/disappearing and want to highlight the price/s where this has been happening or some other activity that has caught your eye and you want highlight it with a ‘Marker’

Like the previous example above placing on the fly ‘Markers’ on the ladder in a point and click way requires the use of a servant. There is also a ready made servant and even a ready-made ladder settings file have been made for you and can be download from the following page on our forum.

All you need to do now is select that ladder settings profile and point your mouse cursor over a cell of a selection you want to place a ‘Marker’ on and click, a ‘Marker’ will then be placed across that row as shown in the image above, were you can see the marker placed on the 2nd and 3rd runners where i’d earlier seen some actvity of interest.

The post Key trading points, automatically or with a click! appeared first on Betfair trading blog | Expert advice from Professional Betfair trade.

York Ebor or Ebore?

The Yorkshire Ebor festival

We are at another key point on our journey through the year, as we head just south of the North York moors to York Racecourse.

The Ebor Festival starts on Wednesday and runs through to Saturday with the big race at the weekend. It’s by far the biggest meeting at York during the year and is packed with big prize money and some decent racing.

I like big meetings because of the amount of money that these bigger meetings and races generate. You also have the bookies and their desire to create a customer offer (terms and conditions apply). Both these things tends to lift the general level of activity in the markets.

You tend to find that when pre-race volume rises, so does in-play betting. The two are joined at the hip with about 80% of money being matched before the off and the remainder during the race. While this is no grand national, it’s a nice boost to the late summer card.

On the opening day, we have the Juddmonte international stakes and a decent chunk of prize money. Compare this with the tiny sums available at the lesser horse racing meetings. You should be able to see the appeal of this meeting.

Betfair Trading conditions

I’ve traditionally done OK at this festival each year, so I am looking for something above average this week. The Ebor meeting can yield some good results, but nothing is ever guaranteed and this meeting can be a bit random at times, so it’s probably not going to be all plain sailing. But it should be better than what we have been seeing recently though.

Traditionally, the space between two big meetings in racing can be pretty disappointing and that’s pretty much what we’ve seen since Goodwood. So I approach this week with raised hopes and it usually delivers.

As with other meetings of this nature you get some smaller races that lead up to the feature and then it tapers off againt towards the end of the day. So be prepared for rapdially changing conditions. Your options are to change strategies to reflect the shift in race types or avoid the ones you don’t like.

As always I’ll be trading them all and hope that York gives us a nice boost to the week and month.

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