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The Betfair error that gifted punters £45m

This week in 2011, we were treated to an EPIC day of spectacular proportions and this post relives that moment for those that were not around to bear witness to it. While betting exchanges and the Betfair exchange, in particular, have brought many opportunities. Sometimes they throw a bit of a curveball.

Now and again you see odd moments on Betfair trading markets but in 2011 we hit a whole new ball game. Throughout my Betfair trading career, I’ve seen some odd things. But Boxing Day 2011 was on a whole new level.

Leopardstown Christmas festival

It’s a busy week between Christmas and the New year and once out of the Kempton King George meeting, we move into a quieter period. But the Leopardstown Christmas Festival still brings us some quality and is worthy of a look, as the week wears on. I’m generally less convinced by other markets, but will often trade them if an opportunity presents itself.

The are many big races at Leopardstown during this week and one of them is the Christmas Hurdle. On the day of the hurdle, the meeting overall has prize money that often exceeds all the other meetings combined. That’s why is a focal point for me and a key trading target during this busy Christmas period.

Leopardstown 2011

The 2011 meeting at Leopardstown and the Christmas hurdle in particular. Will always go down in Betfair history for something went very, very wrong.

The exchange is the epitome of fairness. You lodge money upfront to place your bets and all bets are honoured. With a third party bookmaker, there are reasons not to pay out but not on the exchange. On an exchange, you see a price and you can take it safely in the knowledge that it will be honoured. Sometimes there is the odd error, but rather than being a Betfair error. It’s usually an error on behalf of an errant bot or person on the other side of the exchange. But regardless of the error, the bet stands. That is one of the beauties of exchanges.

Christmas hurdle 2011

In a fairly standard race, Voler La Vedette ran home to take the win. There was nothing unusual about the win and I pretty much ignored the race, focused on the next market that was about to arrive. But there was something really odd about the in-play market.

For most of the race, £21m was available to back at good odds. Even as the horse pulled away to stride past the post. You could be forgiven for thinking that it should be 1.01 to lay as it strode miles past the post. However, it was still available to back at odds of 29, not only that you could do it for incredible amounts of money! Never before had such a thing been seen before on a betting exchange. Yes, you see some odd things, but this was bizarre. You had £21.4m available to back at decimal odds of 29! Not only that but this was on a feature race, the Christmas hurdle at Leopardstown racecourse

There was so much money that nobody was able to take all that money in-running. ‘Only’ £1.6m was matched, meaning the loser would have to pay out a cool £44.8m to the backers. It seemed too good to be true. Unfortunately, it was, the market was never paid out.

Betfair did, eventually, give a rough explanation of a technical glitch that occurred that had been spotted and corrected so it could never happen again. But there weren’t huge amounts of depth to the explanation, though there were a few plausible theories.

When we looked at the data we could see, honestly by coincidence, that the amount of money that was being offered was the maximum positive value for a 32-bit signed integer. For the less technical amongst you, the maximum amount allowed by some computer systems. Was this the cause? Some really obscure bit of code, a lack of error trapping or a weird database issue. Most likely, but I guess the reason for not offering a full explanation was to avoid future exploits? Since then the API and the infrastructure behind the exchange has changed significantly. So I am guessing that this exploit probably doesn’t exist anymore. But it was a ‘funny’ thing to see.

Meltdown & IBAS

Everything went into melt-down that day. For the full story, you need to read the full blog posts, but also the forum posts for the race. I’ve listed them all for your enjoyment. It will be a day never to forget!

As though the meltdown in the Betfair trading community wasn’t enough. The meltdown in the wider betting and trading community went on for some time. Betfair took the unprecedented step off voiding all bets in the market citing a software failure caused by “a unique set of circumstances’.

People who had, legitimately, backed Voler La Vedette for the win at 29 were left wondering why they hadn’t paid out, as other exchange errors always had been. This brought up the spectre of counterparty risk on the exchange. Who actually was on the other side? It turned out an account with just £1k in it had accidentally exposed a freaky error on the API.

200 punters took advantage of the error. When Betfair voided some of those decided to go to IBAS, the independent betting adjudication service. The full reason for the error was never fully made public, but for anybody that has coded or knows something other than denary in number terms. It pointed clearly towards a certain type of error. Which was subsequently closed down by Betfair. No further action was required by the gambling commission, it was just one of those freaky things that can happen with technology. A betting exchange equivalent of a ‘flash crash’.

If you want the full story, here is the list of forum posts of what happened on that day. It added some extra spice to Christmas that year : –

  1. Bet Angel forum posts
  2. Biggest ever loss on Betfair?
  3. How to lay £600m worth of bets on Betfair
  4. £1k account caused £600m of error

The post The Betfair error that gifted punters £45m appeared first on Betfair trading blog | Expert advice from Professional Betfair trade.

Betfair trading during Christmas week

First of all, I’d like to wish you a very Merry Christmas and a happy new year. We have had a busy year at Bet Angel and expect a busier one next year.

It’s almost time to relax, but typically this can start and end sooner than you expect on racing markets.

The real reason for Christmas

The first point to make in this post is that the holiday period now is the time to catch up with friends and family, to eat drink and be merry. Sometimes betting and trading can take a back seat and I hope you use the time over this period wisely. If you are not a professional then enjoy your time off.

The point of this blog is to tell you how I use the time and what this period means to a professional Betfair trader. When I started trading my kids were just toddlers and now they are adults, so I’ve successfully navigated the key years of their life while doing a job I love. Part of the reasons for that, is that I’ve never been far away from them thanks to being able to work from where I wish. It’s something that’s been an honour. Now they are pretty ready to trade themselves!

One really redeeming feature of Christmas that I like, is that after months of darkness closing in around you and disrupting your daily pattern, things get better from here. The timing of Christmas near the winter solstice means we can start looking forward again as the day start to lengthen. It’s no surprise that for millennia people have worshipped the sun god!

Horses for courses

Of course, a key factor for your sports you will be trading on the Betfair exchange. Different sports have different cycles and, for example, the Cricket traders will be tucking in the Big Bash T20 tournament in the run up to and over Christmas.

Football traders will have a few markets on most days, but the big stuff comes thick and fast between Boxing day and New year. If you Betfair trading is horse racing, then you get a flurry of higher quality leading up to new years day.

My mainstay is horse racing markets, so the rest of this blog post really focuses on what I see around this period.

Pre-Christmas period

The markets in the run-up to Christmas day can be a bit barren. It actually works well for me, as it means you can most likely take the entire week off and not really miss anything. I say the same thing each year and that is more or less what happens each year. Earnings are not strong during this period, so I have a very relaxed attitude to the markets in the week before the Christmas period.

It’s a nice build-up to Christmas and I tend to use it to visit people and do all those other things. It’s an opportunity to get everything sorted ahead of Christmas. Then I can breathe and relax and enjoy Christmas.

Post-Christmas period

The period after Christmas day is interesting if a bit chaotic, especially the day after Christmas. With Black Friday behind us Boxing day brings the Christmas sales and the King George meeting at Kempton Park.

The big race, The King George VI Chase, is obviously a feature and I’ve often pulled a good result out of this. The issue you will have is finding anything outside of this!

There are many meetings on boxing day and it will be chaos, with clashing races will be the order of the day. I tend to just pick off the races at Kempton and then return to the living room and be sociable. Generally, I wouldn’t recommend trading Boxing day manually unless you are confident you will get good money from it. Your social commitments will be far more important. But I have traded Kempton every year for as long as I can remember as it’s possible to get some decent results from it. There is just usually the trading equivalent of bubble and squeak left over for the other meetings.

The day following Boxing day is quieter but still contains quality and can work quite well as there is less racing to clash with. So I quite like the meetings that follow between boxing day and the New Year. While these days are not public holidays, most people take these days off and the drinks flow, as does the money from their wallets into the bookmakers satchel. They often may for good markets.

As the week trundles on, you can pick off some good opportunities elsewhere. The festival at Leopardstown can be great but some of the other stuff can throw up opportunities too. If you don’t have commitments, this week can be a useful end to the year.

The Leopardstown festival is ‘famous’ for being the race where Betfair experienced a glitch and somebody ended up losing £43m in-play. Check out the blog post for this if you want some background.

New years day

If you haven’t overdone the booze then the next bank holiday, New Year’s day, is a smaller version of boxing day. Cheltenham sticks out as the traditional feature on this day, but you will run into the same problems as on boxing day of clashing races etc. But picking off the better quality at Cheltenham can work quite well. Once new year’s day is out of the way, things get a lot quieter so it’s traditionally the time I take a proper break.

Ahead of this I tend to do all my socialising and good deeds in the week before Xmas. That leaves the deck clear for family time and picking off a few opportunities between Boxing day and new year. I’ll be back behind my desk on boxing day, trading software to hand. To get my last shot at a good week before the new year starts.

Whatever you do, don’t forget to enjoy yourself. After all, it is Christmas. Have a Merry Christmas!!

The post Betfair trading during Christmas week appeared first on Betfair trading blog | Expert advice from Professional Betfair trade.

How bookmakers ALWAYS win at betting

So you might have heard this phrase before, only the bookmaker wins!

But how does a bookmaker make money and how would you price a market like a bookmaker? Whether it’s horse racing, football, tennis or betting on sports in general, they always win, so what is the secret?

Betting exchanges offer near-perfect books, that’s a feature of exchange. So while this isn’t really applicable to a betting exchange, it’s worth examing so that you can fully understand the concept and how that influences prices on the Betfair exchange.

Step one : Create a betting market

The reason that you would need to do this, is because you’re going to lay odds into that market that people will bet against.

You create the market ☞ You create the odds ☞ Then they will bet against you.

So let’s take a really simple example of creating a set of odds and for that, we’re going to use a coin. If I toss a coin, barring any oddities, the coin will end up on heads 50% of the time and tails 50% of the time. So there’s a 50/50 chance that it’s going to end up head or tails.

The classic example describing a simple off – 50/50

How do we price that in a set of odds? What we’re going to do here is use decimal odds because that’s how the exchanges are priced.

Well we know that there’s a 50/50 chance (0.5 in decimals) of that coin being heads or tails.

So if we do:

1 ➗ 0.5 we get 2.

Bingo – we have a market!

So let’s say that the market for heads is 2 and the market for tails is also 2. The way to assess how efficient and how good a market is from a betting perspective is to do the opposite calculation.

If you see a market priced at odds of 2.00, if you do 1 ➗ 2 , then we get 0.5. Therefore, if we had a market with two runners in it, priced at odds of 2.00 on the exchange. If we add both it equals 1 or a 100% chance that either of those selections is going to on to is going to win this particular market.

In the case of our coin toss, what’s actually going to happen is that we have a 100% chance of the coin being head or tails as they are both priced at 2.00. Knowing these terms, there’s no margin lost to either side of the book.

The backers can back something with a 100% chance and the layer in this case, the bookmaker who’s making the market in the book, can lay into the market at odds of 2 for 100%. He’s not making any money either.

So that’s a perfect market, there’s no margin on either side!

Step two : Creating your own odds

If you were a bookmaker one of the things that I would want to do, is to make money from the backers. So if we were looking at our coin toss market and I go into this market and offer odds of 2 on a head or 2 on a tail, then basically I’m never going to make any money.

Over the long term we would expect heads and tails to equal out and I’m going to pay out 100% of my money for 100% probability.

Will it be heads?

So, in fact, there’s no advantage in me doing that. I could convince you that the chance of a head occurring on the next toss is high because we’ve had five heads in a row beforehand. Obviously, that’s complete rubbish, but I could convince you that was the case and therefore, I’m only going to offer you odds of 1.50.

What happens if I offer you odds of 1.50?

What am I actually offering you when I’m offering odds of 1.50? Well, if we go and do that little bit of maths again, we do 1 ➗ 1.50 it comes out at 0.66666 occurring. In other words, what I’m more or less saying is that it’s got a 67% chance of occurring.

That’s nonsense because a coin has a 50% chance of being a heads or tails. So if I offer you odds of 1.50, there’s absolutely no reason that you would choose to take those odds, because I’m offering you odds of 66% chance of something occurring when it’s only got a 50% chance. It just makes absolutely no sense whatsoever!

People do this all of the time in betting markets, however. They will back something despite the fact that the odds just don’t stack up. So when you’re backing in a betting market, you want to get the highest odds that you possibly can. Then when you’re saying you want to get the lowest possible odds to that, because doing either of those two things is how you make money in the long term on a betting market.

If we went into a market and we could back heads or tails at 1.5, we would lose money hand over fist to the person that’s pricing that market. However, if we go into the market and back heads or tails at odds of 3, then we could effectively buy the chance of the coin being heads or tails for a 66% chance, giving us 30 odd percent margin.

If we back it at 1.5, the margin goes in the other direction and it’s actually the layer that has the margin within that particular market. So when you look at a market and you see the odds, that’s effectively telling you the chance that something is likely to occur. The layers want you to take the lowest odds possible, but as a backer, you want to be able to take the highest odds possible.

Understanding how a bookmaker works

Bet Angel can help you do this!

Let me show you a practical example of this, I’ve chosen for this example a Newcastle v Huddersfield market. You can see above that the market is super efficient here and that it’s priced at 100.1. That means if you’re backing into this market, you’re only losing 0.1% to the other side of the book which would have traditionally been a bookmaker.

However in this market, the layers on the other side of the market and you can see in the image above that it’s super efficient, there’s almost no edge to a layer in this particular market at these particular odds. So if I was a bookmaker, that would obviously be completely unacceptable to me.

The betting exchange market is so hyper efficient, you will never find a bookmaker that can offer these odds, as they coulnd’t possibly make money in the longer term with a margin of 0.1% There are many problems to doing this on the exchange. You can’t balance your book, you can’t be sure bets will arrive in proportion and you can’t adjust prices to encourage a balanced market.

In a conventional market, the best way of creating margin is to change the pricing, so if I change from back all to manual on the bookmaking tab on Bet Angel, I can actually reduce the price on each one of these.

My % odd increases

You can see the percentage starts to rise and that’s how a bookmker would make margin on this particular game.

If you want to cross-check this, get some bookmaker odds and have a play around with this feature in Bet Angel. What I did was I nipped out and went to my local high street bookmaker to find out what else they were offering within this particular market. Of course, you could go to an online bookmaker, but a conventional bookmaker will probably need higher margins.

According to the odds that I picked up on the coupon, they were offering 4 to 5 on Newcastle, which in decimal odds is 1.8.

The bookies offerings

On the draw they were offering 12 to 5, which is decimal odds of 3.40 and on Huddersfield they were offering 13 to 5, which is decimals of 3.6. So can you see that slight difference between the margin (circled on the right on the image below) that you lose at the bookmaker and the amount that you lose on the exchange (circled on the left in the image below.)

How the bookies market looks

You can see here that if you bet on the exchange, you almost lose nothing to the other side of the book because you’ve got a very competitive market. However, if we went into a local bookmaker and placed a bet there, you can see that they’re asking for nearly 13% theoretical margin on this particular game.

Now we can actually give them credit, they are fairly competitive on Newcastle so it’s not a ridiculous proposition on Newcastle. You can suspect that probably believe that the exchange is full of smart money and they probably have that price right, but it’s undoubted that these prices will change as we head into the weekend and the market adjusts for new information.

In comparison you can see that pretty uncompetitive on the remaining selections and very uncompetitive when we go for the away win. So there’s absolutely no way that you would back an away win here, but maybe you would be able to get a decent price at the bookmaker if you were backing just Newcastle.


What you have read here is a practical example of how a bookmaker prices their margin into the market.

Bookmakers essentially make money by pricing a market at different odds to the likihood that underlying event happening. This means you can’t win in the long term as you are betting or something that simply can not happen or at odds that do not accurately reflect the chance of it happening.

If you use a betting exchange to bet, then the odds tend to be very close to the real chances of that event happening and very little money is lost to the the other side of the book whether you choose to back or lay. This makes finding value much more likely on a betting exhange as opposode to a traditional bookmaker or sportsbook.

The fact the market is almost perfect, amongts other things, means it also impossible for conventional bookmakers to operate on an exchange. It’s just your judgement against others.

Knowing how a bookmaker makes their money will help you outsmart the bookmaker. By compare there odds to an exchange you will be able to see what odds they are offering that fairly reflect the market, or are somewhat out of ‘shape’

That should help you understand where the value betting opportunties are and how broad price changes in the market are likely to affect the exchange.

The post How bookmakers ALWAYS win at betting appeared first on Betfair trading blog | Expert advice from Professional Betfair trade.

How much money can you make? Setting sensible targets

Now as we come towards the end of 2020, you may be tempted to reflect over the profit you have made over this last year. Some of you, you’ll be hoping that 2021 is a lot more hopeful and you’ll be thinking about how much can you make next year? Could it be £100,000? £1 million? £10 million?! What should be your actual target?

There is actually a very simple (and sensible!) answer for you which clearly defines exactly what your objective is and what targets you should set when you’re Betfair trading.

Why can some targets be bad?

One of the things that you need to be careful about when you’re trading, is setting targets. Earning money is obviously important and having a realistic target is a key aspect of what I look for when people approach me and need advice, because if somebody comes to me and says:

‘Right Peter, I need to make two hundred and fifty quid a day and I’ll be happy! How do I do that?’

If you’re saying this, then you’re looking at it the wrong way round! Trading itself isn’t something that lends itself particularly well to that method of operation. Yes, you can set a target, but setting a black and white arbitrary target at a top level isn’t the way to go. Trading, to a degree, works the other way around.

If you look at my long term P&L, what it tends to do is follow the sport cycle. By looking at it over the course of the year, January and February are quite quiet and then it begins to rise in March and then it peaks in the summer where it drops as we come out of the summer months. You see it follow the cycle of the sports that I’m trading throughout the year.

Of course, the cycle includes or doesn’t include one sport or another over the course of a year. So, your cycle will be slightly different to mine depending upon what you choose to trade and when you choose to trade it. My mantra is always to trade the most while the sun shines in the summer, there’s so much going on and that makes it’s perfectly possible to make good sums of money.

But I’m not expecting to do that in the winter because there are fewer events going around during that time of year so I’ll have fewer markets to trade and less trading strategies to deploy into them. So it is foolish to have a target that is the same in summer as it is in the winter because you’re very likely to do much less at certain times of the year and much more at other times of the year.

It makes no sense to be able to have a standard target and then just liberally disperse that across the year.

This even works for me if we go down to a weekly basis on pre race trading on the Betfair exchange. Most of the money that I make tends to occur towards the weekend because that’s when most of the sporting activity is on. It’s not always like that, because you do get little bumps and peaks at other times depending upon what you’re going to do, but generally, it is skewed towards the end of the week.

So even if I have a bad time at the start of the week, it doesn’t really matter because by the time the weekend comes, I’ve got plenty of opportunity to make it up. However, I don’t look at it like that! I don’t look at it as though I’m making up a certain amount of money. That’s just part of the cycle.

It’s useful that the week finishes on a Saturday for me. Early in the week, there’s a lot less opportunity and there is less money in the market. So it’s Mondays and Sundays that are the days I usually take off or do other things as it slowly peaks up until the weekend (typically on a Saturday like shown in the image above.)

Ultimately, the amount of profit that you make is dictated by the market and the underlying events within it. Now this is how you need to objectively look at what potential profit you have. Luckily for you, I’ve got a really simple way of doing that…

Focusing on the long term

If you look at my activity on the markets, one of the tricks that I have is that I’m trading many more markets now than I ever have done in the past. So when I first started on Betfair, I would basically go on the screen, place a position and then close the position out. That was pretty slow and laborious and meant that I couldn’t do that many markets. Then Bet Angel was born and it was possible to do a lot more with and much quicker within the market.

Bet Angel was released in it’s early stages in 2004

I was able to put additional trades through more markets and more frequently across a wider range of sports. As time has gone on, you’ve obviously seen Bet Angel progress and now we’ve got the opportunity to be able to automate as well. It’s great to be able to do that because it means that I can simultaneously participate in a range of markets while I’m actually trading another one.

So it’s perfectly possible to do all sorts of weird, wonderful and crazy things many times over in a whole range of markets!

The opportunity is bigger than it’s ever been

Thanks to Bet Angel and now Automation, necessarily the scope of my opportunity is much bigger than it ever was. So that’s one of the reasons that I perform so well overall is because I’ve got something going on pretty much 24/7 all of the time!

Even if I’m actively trading in front of my screen, I’ve got other versions of Bet Angel doing other stuff in other markets or even on the same market, but exploring a different strategy.

So that’s one of the tricks that I now have, which allows me to hit that number. It’s the ability to be able to do more things within it. However, that reduces your risk as well because if you think about it, your target isn’t to do one amazing £200 trade, you could actually do five smaller trades to get up to a decent number if you so wish.

That’s the crux of where we’re getting to here, because if you set an arbitrary target of £100 in any one particular day, you’re going to be limited to achieving that target by however many markets are involved in hitting that particular number.

What you need to do is stretch out your time scale and make it much bigger and longer, over wider time scales. So if you say to yourself that you just want to be profitable over the course of the week, if you only trade 5 markets, there’s a lot of pressure on for you to get those 5 right.

However, it’s perfectly possible you could trade hundreds in a week. Therefore, your target becomes a little bit more achievable because you lower your stakes down, which involves little less pressure on you.

It’s easier to actively trade with smaller amounts when you’re active in the market. You wont feel much pressure when you have a losing position or trade.

£1K short term target? Good or bad?

Let’s use an example, for this I’m going to use an arbitrary money, I don’t suggest you set this target, but it will help you gain perspective.

So our target for the week is £1k and I’m going to trade ‘x’ amount of markets. If you trade five markets and your target is £1000, you’re going to need to pull out a £200 trade without any losses to be able to hit that target.

That’s a bit of an ask, if I’m honest!

Now, if you say my target is £1k and I’m going to do it in a thousand markets, all of a sudden you collapse your objective and you’re not relying on one mega-trade. You basically say that on average you are making £1 each out of these markets, so I could be up to a £2 on one particular market, down £1 on another, up £5 and another £4, up £6, down £3 etc. That way you aim for a target that’s much more reasonable and manageable which is perfectly possible! Another benefit is that include and expect losses.

I have an automation strategy that I use and off the top of my head, I believe it’s probably made £60 or £70k. If you look at the way that it was achieved and the equity curve (an equity curve is looking at the cumulative P&L) of a particular strategy, what you see is it’s just a gradual climb over a very long period of time.

My equity curve on my automation strategy

The individual amounts that I win and lose on there are relatively small, so you see my trick that I’m pulling here is simple: I’m just doing a lot of them!

It’s a lot of money at the end of this particular total, but the actual amount of money that’s involved any one time in the risk that I’m taking and the amount that I’m yielding per market is actually pretty small. Of course, this runs parallel to all of the stuff that I’m doing manually in the market it just goes doing its business in the background. Then I can look at it at the end of the week go, ‘oh yeah, it has been a good week’!

However, the more markets I put into it, the more it will yield and the fewer markets I put into it then the less I will yield. By doing it over a very large number of markets, the actual overall objective is very achievable. So yes £1K can be a good target, but it shouldn’t be a short term target.

Setting achievable goals

So if I said to you, can you pull off a £200 trade at the next race, you may look very shocked at me and you may not be able to do that! But if I say to you your objective is to make £1 a trade, then obviously you think, ‘well, definitely I can achieve that!’

Now it can simply be a case of replicating this when going forward. If you look at it from a broad perspective over a year, say you wanted to make £100,000 a year.

You set a target of trading 50,000 markets. Therefore, if you do the math – £100k/50k = £2, £2 is the amount you would hope to make on average.

Obviously, this wouldn’t work out perfectly where you’ll win £2 in every market. In some markets, you’ll win £5 and on other markets, you lose three quid and it averages out +£2. So all of a sudden, you’re thinking, could I get £2 out of a market?

You see this is a much more reasonable target than trying to earn some stupendous amount out of the market which will probably be at a much higher risk. So when you set a target, that’s ultimately the way that you should be doing it. It’s like writing up a business plan of sorts!

You see that’s where I want to end up! It’s a much better way of looking at your risk and your money management and what you’re trading objective is. It is better than trying to meander your way through it. You could end up throwing money at it left, right and centre and then find yourself up against a target and then slipping backwards.

It can get messy! Remember: it’s best to have a definable pattern of behaviour.

I know how many markets I’m likely to trade next year and the interesting thing is the number of markets that I trade on average is actually accelerating at the moment. With all the work we’ve done with automation and semi-automation, especially with aspects like Servants, it is things like that which increases my capacity to trade.

An example of automation

Not only am I trading more markets, but I’m putting more trades through those markets. As a consequence, my account turnover and the profit continues to rise simply because of the large number of markets that I’m able to participate in.

You don’t have to go for those big, you know, glory seeking massive totals on any individual event. Your objective is a little bit more subtle than that.

£100,000 in a year is it possible?

Curiously, in my experiance, It’s easy to achieve bigger targets if you focus on small average profits over a large number number of markets, not setting a large target per race.

Now, If you’re looking at how much money you could possibly make it’s important to note that if you’re starting out to say you probably won’t make any money! Ultimately, what you’re looking to do if you’re trying to get to the stage where you earn a decent sum of money, is looking for a much broader objective.

You’re not saying I need to make a certain amount over this period of time, you’re prioritising the idea that you are going to trade ‘x’ many markets and therefore this is my overall objective. It makes life a lot simpler and easier to cope with. It also significantly reduces the amount of stress that you have when you’re actively trading.

Don’t look at your P&L

The other thing you can do is not look at your P&L, if you look at your P&L and you have a figure in mind that you’re attempting to achieve during a certain time period, then that tends to force you to pursue more aggressive strategies when it isn’t going well.

It may be that the market just isn’t in your favour at that moment in time. You just have to keep on ploughing on and doing the things that you know are right and eventually, it will turn around at the end of that longer period. It’s sometimes hard to stay patient, but it may take more than a week, a month for you to even out. Many a small loss can turn into a much bigger one if you are chasing a target.


If you want to know how much you could possibly trade and how much money you could make from that trading, I think that your objective really is not to set that arbitrary figure, but to look at the number of markets you’re trading and set your total trading goal from there.

So do you think 2021 will get you that big profit? Remember, don’t fraternise with your losses, it is your goal to end up positive overall on average. With that mindset, it will help you succeed and possibly reach that £100,000…or whatever your target is.

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