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Australian Open Tennis – 2021

The first major sporting event of 2018 gets underway with the opening Grand Slam of the tennis calendar the ‘Australian Open’. With weaker Betfair trading markets elsewhere especially the racing front the Australian Open is a perfect time to get going with some Betfair tennis trading instead.

If you want a quick browse of previous advice dispensed on Tennis trading strategies, try our top Tennis trading videos on the Bet Angel Academy. Or check out our forum which is full of chatter from previous tournaments that should help you get some additional insight and what to look for in the upcoming fortnight.

The current Pandemic may impact the 2021 Australian open, as it has in the build-up tournaments. So the first week will no doubt be dominated by this and how it impacts on Tennis players.

Live scores at the Aussie Open

Some of you may remember, from recent years, that Betfair is unable to provide the live score feed via their API (which is where Bet Angel gets them from). Unfortunately, Betfair have confirmed they will not be providing them again this year. Betting exchanges will have live scores, but they will just not pass them through the exchange.

Not having a live score feed from the Tennis match means any automation that you have or intended to use that triggers off scores or server conditions etc will not work in this tournament.

Although you won’t be able to run automation on Tennis markets during the Australian Open we still have a whole season ahead of us so if nothing else this will be a good chance to get some manual trading under your belt and get a feel for how the markets work in order to help you create a rules file (bot) ready for upcoming tournaments.

Tennis Trader Tool

The lack of a live score feed means Bet Angels unique Tennis Trader tool can not update automatically either, however it is still possible to use this profiling tool by manually updating the scores yourself, it will then continue to display the predicted prices point by point, game by game and set by set as the match progresses. It will then let you understand the impact on the current service game, what entry point you should use and the impact of breaks of serve.

If you have never done this the following thread from our forum details how to setup & update the Tennis Trader scores manually, and if you are totally new to Tennis Trader and would like to give it a go there are plenty of videos walking you through it on the Bet Angel TV page linked to above, or there is this thread also from our forum which also steps you through how to use it effectively.

Despite the absence of the live score feed as always I’m still very much looking forward to getting stuck into the opening Grand Slam of the year. Over the years Tennis has become a firm favourite of mine outside racing leading me to focus on it more and more over the years and this year will be no exception so I’m hoping to to get off to a good start.

The main reason it appeals to me is Tennis produces some big swings in prices which create lots of opportunities especially in the women’s tournaments so it’s not uncommon to see prices of favourites or those trading at <1.15 early in a match drift out to 2+ and back again and there’s often no shortage of back and forth swings like in the charts below.

Early Risers

For those who are new to trading tennis and might not fancy the idea of sitting up all night, there will still be plenty of matches starting early morning UK time and as the tournament wears on this will generally be the better matches with the bigger names getting scheduled in the evening (Aus time) therefore morning here in the UK.

Finally don’t forget to drop by this year’s dedicated forum thread which I and many others be active on, posting and updating regularly so feel free to check it out and join in the chat.

The post Australian Open Tennis – 2021 appeared first on Betfair trading blog | Expert advice from Professional Betfair trade.

Creating a Tennis Trading Model – Tips and Tricks

So if you’re betting on Tennis or your Betfair trading tennis, then there’s one critical factor that you need to understand.

Value betting on Tennis matches

If you are value betting and you want to profit in the long term, you’re estimating what you think the betting odds should be, this is what they are and you would profit from that difference over a long period of time.

Betfair trading on Tennis matches

If you are Betfair trading, your profit from price movement. You are saying this is where the market is now, this is where I think the market’s going to be and this is how the odds will change and you will profit from the difference between the two.

However, both of these strategies have a key element to them and that is what should the odds be. In order to be able to understand that, what you need to do is create a odd’s model.

So we are going to explore a betting model for tennis by creating some odds using some publicly available data. This will allow us to either profit from a straight value betting strategy or from a Betfair trading strategy by being able to anticipate where the odds are likely to go.

How to predict the outcome of a Tennis match

When you look at every sport, there is a fundamental underlying characteristic that allows you to define and create some particular model. Models can be as simple or as complex as you wish and can contain a whole number of different factors.

What we are going to address here is the key question of what should the odds be within a tennis match by giving you quite a simplistic example. We’re not going to overcomplicate it, it will be a good start point for you if you want to do this more seriously.

So if we look at a tennis match, we need to identify what characteristic can we use to be able to identify exactly what the odds should be? When you look at each individual sport, you realise that there are factors that are taken into account.

For example, when we look at football/soccer, what you will find is that it is very simple to define what you’re trying to identify within a match. You’re basically saying how many goals are going to scored and how are they going to be divided up between the two teams.

If you work with a model that focuses on that, then you can pretty much predict what the odds are likely to be at any point during the match. Now, I have done videos on this, so watch those if you’re interested in doing this on football, but today we’re going to be focussing specifically on tennis.

So we need to come up with some metrics, a definition of exactly how we are going to price a tennis match. In fact, it’s a little bit easier than you would imagine because all of the publicly available stats are there. You can get them completely free and you can use them to create a model.

Today the metric that we’re going to use is the chance of a player winning a point on their serve. What we need to do is talk that through a little bit, so you get a better understanding of exactly what you’re looking at and how this is calculated.

How to create you tennis betting model

To begin we’re going to use publicly available statistics and then convert that data into a set of odds.

So where do you find these statistics?

If you go onto the ATP and WTA websites, you will see a stats section. If you look at that stat section you can actually examine all of the players together and rank them or you can explore individual player statistics.

If you want to pull this data in automatically

ATP Tennis statistics

These are some statistics above that I brought up on a player on the ATP website and you can see things like the first-serve percentage, how many points they won on first serve return data and their breakpoints.

Your model can include all of it or just a little part of it. That’s up to you what level of depth you want to go into, but today we’ve created a simple model here that just uses part of this data to come up with some pretty accurate results. So let’s have a look at how we have constructed that using this particular data.

Doing the maths…

~ First serve in = 62 (out of 100)
– Wins 79% of 62 = 48.98
~ Second serve points won = 57%
– Wins 57% of 38 = 21.66
Total = 70.64%

So on this particular data, what we’ve done is we’ve taken the first serve percentage and said that 62 times out of 100 serves that first serve will go in and therefore the returner will have to return that and play a shot.

But of course, that means that 38% of the time that first serve didn’t go in. So this particular player, when they serve 62% of their first serves, actually go in and then that particular point is played.

Now, of that 62%, they actually end up winning 79% of those particular points. So we can actually do a really quick calculation here and say that 62% of the time they win a point 80% of the time and if we combine those two together, we come up with a figure of roughly 49%.

So we can say that when that player does that first serve, they’ll win a point 50% of the time. However, we also have this issue that sometimes they don’t get that first serve in and therefore they have to play a second serve.

When you play a second serve you’ve got to get the ball in or you lose a point. When this particular player plays a second service then the chance of winning that point drops from 79% to 57%. However, we can now use that by saying if they win a point 57 % of the time on the second serve and that occurs 38% of the time, then they will basically end up winning a point at 22 times out of 100 on second serve.

So you can basically add those two together and then you end up with roughly 70%. Therefore, on just slightly over 70% of points this player will win on serve. Now we’ve combined the first serve and the second serve meaning the chance of them winning a point on either and that comes up with about 70%.

Tennis statistics

If you want proof that this logic is firm and understandable, just look at those stats. Have a look down towards the bottom of the stats and you can actually see that it says service points one, 71 %.

We have taken the data from the statistics on this website and actually produced and forecasted correctly the outcome of that particular set of services. So you can see how the data is related and that allows you to project forward or backwards based upon stuff that you’re seeing either before the matches started or as the match is actually in-play.

By using some of the statistics that we can see available, we can actually work out the chance of a player winning a point when they stand up and have a serve. This is the key metric that we’re going to use to calculate some of the odds that we expect to see within the Tennis match.

So now that we have that serve percentage, we can actually turn it into some odds. The way that we’re going to do that is we’re actually going to do some simple maths to be able to work this out.

The power of numbers

We know that the player wins a point when they serve about 70% of the time. So we can actually take that and allow us to push forward to create the odds that they will win a particular game. The simplest way to do this is to look at them serving and going 15 love, 30 love, 40 love, game.

So if they can win four points in a row, then they will win the game. We can do that calculation really easily because we know that’s just short of 71% chance of them actually winning a point on serve. Now if we raise that to the power of four, so we’re basically saying 70% chance of winning a serve four times to the power of four and that actually ends up giving us a percentage.

Average of 6-7 points per game
40-0 =4 serves
~ Single point is 70.64%
~ .7064^4 = 25% =4.00 decimal odds

So if we do .70, 70% roughly, you can see the exact calculations above at the power of 4 we end up at roughly 25%.

So we’re saying here that the chance of winning a service game to love is about a one in four chance if their chance on winning a point on serve is just short of 71%.

Winning to 024.8%
Winning to 1529.2%
Winning to 3021.5%
Winning to deuce15.2%
Winning the game90.8%

Then you can repeat this calculation for winning a game to 15 to 30 to Deuce and so on. You can actually iterate at this calculation for all of those different scenarios and then you can basically add all of those up. Then that actually says that the chance of this player actually winning a service game is about 90%.

So let’s go back and have a look at the statistics that we saw before. If you actually look on the ATP website, you can see there is a section on there that says service games won 90%. So can you see how this is all tying together beautifully?

We can actually see from the statistics how they are likely to play the game. We can work out from that the chance of them winning a point on serve and then we can use that to work out the chance of winning again.

So you can see the logic is there. When you know the percentage chance of them winning a game, then you can convert that into decimal odds, which will give you the overall odds that you see on the screen in front of you.

Once you work out the chance of them winning a game, then you can work out the chance of winning a set, once you work out the chance of winning a set, then you can actually work out the chance of them winning a match, all from that very simple statistic.

The simple tactic you may not know about…

If you’re going to roll these calculations out across an entire match it gets very complicated because you’ve got hundreds of points, you’ve got scores of games and loads of scenarios that could happen like tiebreaks etc. From this point onwards putting your statistics into a model to actually output some odds can become difficult.

However, if you’re a Bet Angel customer, you don’t need to worry because it’s all available for you!

If you go into Bet Angel professional and you click on the tennis ball icon, you bring up Tennis Trader which is an industrial grade modelling tool for tennis. So if you work on any stats, you can put them into Tennis Trader and it will output the odds for you will do all of the hard work for you.

Check out this link to learn more! https://www.betangel.com/tennis/

If this was a separate product to be sold into Bookmaker’s, it would sell for a lot of money! However, you get it completely for free within Bet Angel, so let me explain how he would use it in this particular circumstance.

Putting it into practice

For this example you don’t need to worry about the specifics of the tennis match that I’m using, but to start what you will need to do is select what type of match it is. For this example I’m doing a three set match with a tiebreaker allowed in the final set.

Then what I’m going to do is go onto the calibration setting and here you can enter the percentage chance that a player wins on serve. So if we have two players and one of them is priced, we’ve got this set at 62 and 66. If I apply that to the model, it will actually come up and price what the market will be.

We can also adjust this to sort of indicate if it was a much closer than we think, they’re much more equally matched. You can see that it will price that as well in the image below.

Now perhaps you’ve got one player that is much stronger than the other, you can change that in Tennis Trader as well.

Of course, you can do it the other way around, if you want to figure out what the market is telling you and you see a set of odds, as long as you make sure you set the match type correctly, you can actually go in and get an understanding of exactly how strong markets thinks one player is against another. Then you can take a value position against that or a trading position.

The game matrix

Another interesting area you can look for is the game matrix. Here you can actually put in the two values because you obviously need one player against another. You would put in the value against both of these players and then it will actually be able to project out exactly how that is going to play out over the course of a game and over the course of a set.

So tennis trader does all of this for you, you fiddle around with the core values within the model and then Tennis Trader will actually pump out the odds for you. You don’t need to do any of the complicated calculations that go behind that, avoiding the stress from all the maths!

Make it personal to you

Additionally, if you go into the match grid, then you can actually define custom scores. You can begin to look at particular areas within the match that may interest you. Then you can start to fiddle around with the data here and see how that is likely to influence things and what will happen within the match and how that influences the likely outcome.

This is really beneficial from a trading perspective, because as the match progresses, you can then begin to understand what the market’s telling you, whether it’s discounting information into the service game of each or both players.

You can also use it from a value perspective, by adjusting these values here, you can actually come up with the odds that you should expect to see for the entire match. So if you’re having a bet before the match is underway, you can use the Tennis Trader model to predict and understand what the predicted odds will be based upon any of the statistics that you’re using or that you’ve collated.

So if you want to understand how to create tennis models that is roughly how you would do it. There is a lot more detail you can go into if you wish, but if you want to play around with that and you want to see the impact that your statistics will have on the outcome of match, then you have the perfect tool in Bet Angel called Tennis Trader.

It will allow you to do exactly that without any of the hard work that you’d have to do if you had to create your own model.

Anyhow, I hope that this blog post has been useful for you and explained how we have been able to successfully create and understand how to create a betting model for tennis markets.

Check out Tennis Trader on Bet Angel here! https://www.betangel.com/tennis/

The post Creating a Tennis Trading Model – Tips and Tricks appeared first on Betfair trading blog | Expert advice from Professional Betfair trade.

New – Bet Angel Guardian – Custom Columns

Bet Angel is committed to continuing to invest in and improve our Betfiar trading software, so that Betfair traders that use it can remain competitive in sports trading markets. Version 1.56 of Bet Angel contains a number of enhancements, but there is one major change that you should get familiar with.

Bet Angel – Version 1.56 or above

One of the key updates in version 1.56 of Bet Angel was an update to Guardian that allows users the ability to fully customize their Guardian screen by adding removing columns they want/need. This includes: –

  • Adding up to to 5 Automation columns allowing up to 5 different automation files to be applied to each market.
  • Adding up to 5 Guardian nominated selection columns, allowing up to 5 nominated selection/runners to be chosen for rules to be applied to.
  • Adding up to 5 Alert columns (similar to those that have been available on the Watch List for a few years).
  • Ability to create your own bespoke custom columns – these can display a range of pre-set pieces of information for markets and selections, for example, the In-play bet delay times, book%, runner form Hi/Lo/LTP, Profit/Losses etc.
  • Custom Columns can also be created to lookup and display your own Stored Values and Values held in History Lists – giving you the ability to display almost any type of information present or historical from a market.
  • Also now possible is the ability to display your Watch List alerts in the Guardian Window

Once you’ve added/removed the columns you want to be displayed just as it’s been possible to to do with Bet Angel’s one-click trading screen for many years you can save the custom columns and your Guardian layout as a profile, this is handy if you trade a variety of sports and types of markets as you could save a different layout displaying different custom columns for each, which you can then switch between them with the click of a button.

Examples of custom columns in Guardian

In the image below you can see I’ve removed some of the original default columns I didn’t need (the suspended and Excel columns) and added some customn columns to display the ‘In-Play Bet Delay’, ‘Profit and Loss’, as well as columns for 3 x ‘Automation Rules’, 4 x ‘Automation Nominated Selections’, and 2 x ‘Alert’ columns.

In the following image I’ve created some custom column to display some pre-set information for the market and selections, these incluse the Profit/Loss and number of selections for the markets, and the Form, LTP (Last Traded Price) for the front three runners and the Hi/Lo traded prices for the favourites from each market.

In the last image I’ve added some alert columns to display some football alerts sent from a rules file applied to the markets, these alerts show when a goal has been scored or if there is some heavy backing on a team

Adding / Removing Custom Columns on Guardian

Let’s look at displaying some of the default custom columns avaliable to you, to do this begin by clicking on the ‘List’ tab at the top of your Guardian window, then click the custom column chooser icon (one that looks like a calendar)

That will the open the column chooser window and from there you can tick/untick all the columns you want to display, below you can see I’ve ticked two alert columns and four automation nominated columns

Once you’ve ticked (or unticked) the required columns you want displaying you can then close the window and you’ll immedietly see the selected columns in your main Guardian window – however you might not want them in there current order, if so thats not a problem, just hover your mouse cursor over the column header until it turns light blue, then press and hold down your left mouse button while dragging the column header to where you want it, when you’ve done that release your mouse button and you’ll have the column where you want it.

You might also want to adjust the width of one or more of your columns especially those showing rules or alerts, to do this just position your cursor between two of the columns until you see a black line with two arrows as in the image below, then similar to above just hold down your left mouse button and drag the column to its desired width

Once you arranged the columns the way you want the last thing to do is to click the Disc+ icon to save layout AS (and give it a name of your choice), or if you’ve edited an existing profile just click the disc icon to re-save it.

Creating your Own Custom Columns

The next thing you probably want to do is to create your own bespoke custom columns to display information for the market or selections relevent to you like shown in the second of the example images further above, there is a range of pre-set information available for both markets and selections which you can choose from (see screenshots below)

For Markets

For Selections

In the ‘Display’ list you’ll also notice options to display a ‘Shared Stored Value’ and Value held in a ‘History List’ these give you even more control over what is displayed in your Guardian, not only can you display almost any piece of information from a market/selection past or present but you can also adjust, round and perform calculations from multiple sources before producing an end value to display, but thats bets left for another blog where it can be looked at in the detail it desreves.

Creating a Custom Column for Pre-Set Information

The first custom column I’m going to create is to display the number of seconds bet delay Betfairs apply to In-Play betting, to do this I’ll start by clicking the ‘Edit Custom Columns’ link to open the custom column editor.

Once the custom column editor opens you need to select a custom column to edit, as this is the first custom column I’ve chosen to edit ‘custom column 1’,
Next I’m going to give it a name,for this first custom column I’m going to call this ‘IP Delay (Secs)’.
Then I need to select the the type of information I want it to display, for this that means selecting ‘Market Information’
From the Pick List I can then select ‘Betting Delay (seconds)’

and that’s it, its as easy as that, the first column is now created, all that’s left to do now is to click the ‘Save Column’ button and the column is ready for use, but before that I want to create some more while i’m here.

Next i’ll begin creating a set of columns to display the form for the front three in the betting of each market, so the second custom column which I need is to display the form of the favourite, so I’ll begin by selecting the next available custom column to edit, this would be ‘Custom Column 2’

As before the first job is to enter a name for this custom column so have chosen ‘Fav Form’, this time I want to display information for a selection and not the market so that’s what I select in the display area
Then I can then select the information I want displaying which is ‘Runners Form’
The final part here is to pick which selection which this is for, here I’ve specified its for the favourite

You’ll also notice that I’ve also chosen to use a pale green background for this column just to help it stand out a bit more.

Its now just a case of repeating those steps until I’ve got a column for each of the runners form that I want displaying, the only change being to the selection area at the bottom, ie, for the next custom olumn I’d specfic ‘By Position 2 (in order of favouritism)’, then for the next column ‘By position 3’ and so on.

Adding Additional Columns

Moving on the next set of columns I want are to display the LTP (Last Traded Price) also for the front three runners, so followimg identical steps as above the only difference being the ‘selection information’ I’ve chosen is ‘Last Traded Price’ and its back to applying it to ‘By Position 1 (in order of favouritism)’, the only other change I’ve done here is to opt for a different background colour.

Then, as before this just needs repeating twice more, to create a column for the second and thrid favourites.

The last two columns I want to create are to display the favs highest and lowest traded price. Then once you have created and saved all the columns you want all that’s left to do is select them from the column chooser menu on the main Guardian ribbon, just the same as you did at the beginning of the first post.

The last job to do then is just to arrange the order you want the columns in, then once thats done just as before click the disc+ icon to save the Market list Layout

There are also ready-made Custom Column and Guardian Layout files which you can download edit to your exact requirements from the shared files section on the Bet Angel forum.

Or if you are looking for some ready-made alert files for the alert columns check out the alerts shared file section on the Bet Angel forum.

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Creating a profitable Betfair trading strategy – Part 3/3

Profitable Betfair trading strategies

One of the most common mistakes I see from people who are just starting out, is that they feel the strategy they are using is the most important thing.

They go on an endless search for this elusive Betfair trading strategy that will deliver profit after profit. But the reality is that profitable Betfair trading will only happen if you have a positive expectancy. So the core of any Betfair trading strategy simply HAS to be getting a positive expectancy.

Nearly all the strategies you will see, will be based around a win rate. I’ve never seen any lay out the expectancy and ultimately that is what you need to focusing on.

Trading Expectancy

So as we come to the end of this blog post, the thing that I want to reinforce with you is about your trading expectancy. The reason that we’re setting up a trading plan and that we’re defining our entry and exit, the up and down side and all of those things is so that we have some metrics to measure our trading by. We also want to do this so that we can actually begin to influence that.

In the table above you can see that we’ve got a number of win rates and along with the types of strike rate you’ll get when you do these types of trades.

It’s not really your percentage strike rate that defines your overall profitability.

So you could have a 98% strike rate, but if you loose a lot of money when that loss comes in, then you’re still not going to make money. In the same measure, if you have a very low strike rate, then you could still actually win as long as you win more than you lose.

So very often, trading is about not getting yourself into trouble in the first place, picking key points within the market areas where they are less likely to be downside and then letting the trade run to its full extent when you get the upside.

You don’t want to cut your losses too soon because that would reduce your strike rate by the same as you don’t let them run out of control and it’s the same in the other direction. If you’ve got a good trade underway, you want to maximise it as much as possible, but not to the point where it reverses and comes back in the other direction.

So you need to measure your strike rate, how much you win when you have a winning trade and how much you lose when you have a losing trade. It’s important to have all of those three things because they will form your overall expectancy.

What you can see on this table above is, you know, we’ve got one strategy that has a 30% win rate. We win £10 every time that we do this trade successfully and we lose £5 when we do it unsuccessfully. But at a 30% strike rate, we actually make a small loss.

However, with a bit of practise, we bump a strike rate up to 40% and we actually lose more than we win. But because we’re getting half decent trades through the market, we’re actually slightly more positive.

Now your mission as a trader, should you choose to accept it, is to try and get the strike rate up as high as possible.

You also need to ensure that balance between your wins and your losses in the best ratio possible as well. Big wins and small losses, it’s not always going to happen like that…

What you’ll find is if you have a trading plan, it will basically present a win rate to your strike rate and it will also present how much you’re winning when you win and how much you lose when you lose.

Then you can start to understand where you’re going wrong:

  • Are you letting your losses go to big?
  • Are you not making a profits big enough?
  • Is your strike rate just appalling?
  • Perhaps you have this strike rate is high, but you’re taking to bigger losses?

If you have a defined trading plan, you can plug these figures together and that will tell you:

a) Where you’re going wrong…

b) but also what you need to achieve as well

If you know what that win and loss ratio is, that will define a strike rate. If you have a win rate and a strike rate, that will tell you what your losses could be.

So using all of that information together will allow you to become a profitable trader and create your own trading strategy.

Hope this blog post is helpful for you, check out the Youtube video linked at the start of the post on the matter if you want to reinforce what we just went over.

The post Creating a profitable Betfair trading strategy – Part 3/3 appeared first on Betfair trading blog | Expert advice from Professional Betfair trade.