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Trading horse racing – Which are the best markets?

I’m predominantly a pre-off Betfair trader on horse racing markets. I cover many sports, but due to the massive number of horse racing markets and their aggregate volume, my favoured Betfair trading market is horse racing.

If you follow me on social media you’ll see that I often tell you what meeting looks good that day or tell you the certain characteristics that are coming out of the markets, anything that I think is of interest!

This is an important part of the trading process when you are looking at pre-race trading. You are examing the betting markets on the Betfair exchange and trying to understand which ones are most likely to throw off the most favourable trading characteristics. Whether you are scalping or swing trading or deploying any type of Betfair trading strategy, knowing where the money is going to be is a key skill.

Therefore, I thought it would be worth showing how I set up and how I assess the day when I begin trading. One September I did a video talking through this and thought I would expand this in this blog post.

Big meetings are the best… or not?

Let’s first start with an example, in this example we’ve got the St Leger running today and Doncaster is the focus meeting of the day. So you would assume that Doncaster would probably be a better meeting to trade, right?

The reason that you could say that is that you know this is where there is a lots of money coming through the market and this tends to produce more favourable characteristics from a trading perspective. However this is not always the case…

Sometimes when you look, for example, at meetings at Cheltenham or some of these really big meetings, there’s so much money that it just swamps the underlying activity on the market. So there is a balance to be had.

In a ‘big’ market price movements will, typically, be small. So the opportunity to lock in a profit would coming from a small price move, you enter and exit the trade fairly quickly. But in lower quality races the move is likely to be much bigger.

One of the skills that I’ve picked up as a trader is I can pretty much turn my hat to anything. If you get a big market with huge liquidity, I’ll adopt a trading style for that. While if we get a really poor, low quality market with low liquidity and higher volatility, then I’ll change my trading style to adapt to that.

Adaptability – a valuable skill

When I first started trading, I’d go into every market and use the same strategy or I would simply sit and wait for the perfect opportunity. But the problem with this it that doesn’t maximise your potential in the market.

One of the ways that I’ve grown to be as big and as capable as I am is being able to flip and flop styles left, right and centre. Which is my advice to the most effective way to trade.

Bet Angel was designed to be Betfair trading software that covers whatever trading style or strategy you wish. So whatever you want to do, we have created a feature to help you.

However, when you’re starting out you’re going to have to start from some base. You practise a strategy, you become good at that and when you’re comfortable with that strategy you can branch out. You’ll probably find it only works in one in five markets or maybe even less depending on what you are trying to do.

But once you have mastered one straategy, this will then encourage you to start looking for other opportunities and different ways of trading these other markets. As I’ve said before, and I’ll say it again:

For every market, there’s a strategy and every strategy, a market. Your role as a trader is to match those two things together.

Therefore, the point I’m just trying to make here is that you can trade every single market, but every market has a correct way of being traded you just may not be able to do it and some will be much harder than others.

How do I make the most out of a market?

For this example I will assess all the best and worse races on the cards, which also happens to include the St Leger. I would be amazed if I don’t make money on the the big race of the day.

It’s just a question of how much, it could be £5 or it could be £500, I’m hoping it’s going to be five hundred! But you can’t specifically tell until you reach that market. However, you can look at the markets and make some broad judgement on what you think is going to happen within the markets and where the most of the betting activity will be over the course of the day.

Let’s go step my step how I would approach this market. This example is quite interesting because of the mixture of meetings that we’ve got going on in this particular day.

So what I do before the session starts is to follow my well-practised daily routine. I fire up Bet Angel put all the markets into Guardian and have a quick assessment on what’s going on within those markets.

How to change the refresh speed

In this example, we are going to look at the UK and the Irish racing. I’ve added the markets to guardian and you can see in the image above, that at the moment we’ve got it on a one second refresh. So it will just gently populate the markets. To speed this up it is simple, all you need to do is change the refresh rate and you will see all of the markets are active and presented to you.

So if we go down this list, we can see we’ve got Chester, Chelmsford, Listowel, Doncaster… there’s a lot of races on today! That’s the first assessment you can make, you can see that Chester goes off at 13:30, 10 minutes later we’ve got Chelmsford, then five minutes we’ve got Listowel, then five minutes after that we’ve got Doncaster than five minutes after that we got Lingfield etc.

It looks like it’s going to be a crazy day with lots of races happening left, right and centre!

When I look at this card, I’m thinking, ‘well Listowel is in Ireland, it’s over jumps were at the tail end of the summer’ (this example is from September), so the problem is that it’s going to get no focus at all, being in Ireland with jumps it contains characteristics that don’t look particularly suitable. I’d be surprised if we get any significant volume at that particular meeting.

Highlighted in blue is the Listowel race and the Doncaster Race

Trading the big race of the day

If we look at the volume at Listowel, you can see in the image above that it’s around 12,500. Then if we look at the volume of the Doncaster race you can see here there’s 170, 000 vs 12,500 at Listowel.

So which one would you choose?!

Would you go for 12,500 at the Irish jumps meeting or would you go for the St ledger meeting on a Saturday? I think that’s fairly obvious which one you choose to go for! Because of this I will probably skip Listowel today, especially as it’s going off just before Doncaster which is which is our obvious focus today.

Let’s also look at the image below at the volume at other races, looking a Lingfield which is after these races and you can see that’s pretty low, Bath after Lingfield is even lower. You can see that this pattern of behaviour continues during the day.

You can see we’ve got Chester, that looks pretty good, as well as quite a bit of activity at Chelmsford already. You can then see it dips when we go to the Irish jumps and then there’s a group two Doncaster so there’s lots of liquidity there.

So you can see there’s races about every five minutes today, so realistically you’ll probably get pretty tired if you try and trade every single five minutes.

You need to also remember that some of the races will go off late and they’ll clash with other races which will take and that will take away some of the volume. However, you can see there’s a pattern beginning to develop there.

The St leger race highlighted

The big race of the day is the St Leger, which we can highlighted above. You see that £600,000 has been matched in that market already, which is huge!

So as we get closer and closer to the St Leger I will turn my attention to that particular race and I will probably do that about half an hour before the race is due to get underway.

Now, most of the liquidity won’t arrive in that race until we get a little bit closer to the start, so because of that I will carefully monitor it and I may actively start putting trades in around 15 to 20 minutes out, but then I will trade it quite aggressively as the volume begins to flow in.

Looking out for clashes

Let’s look at the other races around this time, here we’ve got Musselburgh in front of Listowel, which goes off at the same time as Musselburgh annoyingly! But even more annoyingly, St Ledger goes off five minutes later, what is the racing doing?!

It’s the oldest classic that we have, why don’t they give it a 50 or 20 minute gap when scheduling so that everybody can watch it, get excited about it, place their bets, trade it, do whatever they want to and enjoy the race, but no, let’s just chuck it in the middle of everything else, sorry rant over!

This is unfortunately a hurdle you have to face when deciding what market is best, it is almost inevitable that races are going to clash with the St Leger. Musselburgh may go off late, at Listowel, they mostly won’t care about the St Leger.

This is a shame within racing that they can’t give a better scheduling and would much prefer it if there was a nice clean gap just before it. This is why Cheltenham trades really well because you get lovely clean gaps between all of the races of that time of the year and you don’t necessarily get that at other times of the year.

Anyhow, as we head through the card you can see that Musselburgh is going on at the same time as the Irish race and this reinforces that today we should just forget Listowel as it is not worth looking at.

To help keep focused on what I want to trade each day, I find the races that do not appear as attractive and remove it from Guardian, like I will with Listowel in today’s example.

Spotting great markets that aren’t always obvious

So we have explored the obvious favourite of the today’s example card, however there is always opportunity to find other great markets throughout the card.

Highlighted in blue is the Leopardstown races

As we move through the day we can see that Leopardstown coming into the mix. If we look down at Leopardstown, you can see we’ve got a group two race, group three race and then we’ve put a group one at 17:25 and there is a 10 minute gap there between Listowel and Musselburgh if they go off on time.

So as we’re looking through this entire card you can see there are further opportunities arising when we look at the group races.

Image of the prices of the 17:25 race at Leopardstown

You can you see in the image above that there is a very short price for this market and I know how I’m going to trade this already.

By taking one look at this market, I know that it’s going to have my focus when I arrive at this market a bit later and I already know what I’m going do on this race. At the moment it is too early to do anything at this moment in time.

However, with just one glance at that market it will tell me exactly what I need to know to help me pin point how I’m likely to trade this market closer to the race start. For now I just need to sit there and wait for the characteristics to develop and then jump on the trade when I’m ready.

But you can see that you can gain a lot of information from looking at Guardian in this particular way.

My golden tip for you…

If you want to figure out where the strongest meetings are there is a neat trick you can do on Bet Angel to resort your card screen.

Gif showing where you need to click to sort it by market type

If you just change the way you view your Guardian screen by clicking on the header for markets then this will sort it by market type like shown above.

Close up of part of the today’s example card

If we look at Bath in today’s example above, you can see the volume at the moment is three, four, five, three thousand and there’s a bit of money on the 17:35 race.

While in Chelmsford you can see above that the amount of money is being matched in the 10s and 20s. So it is a clear comparison that Chelmsford market is better than Bath.

Just by looking at the three markets above you can see decent amounts of money at Chester. By organising your card by grouping the races together by location it allows you to assess the volume of activity.

At the bottom of my card in this example we have Listowel which once again reinforce what I said earlier and so I would on a usual day not bother trading these types of markets. This allows for a great overview of the volume in each race location.

Two key ways to help find the best markets

  1. By having your Guardian screen sorted by market it will give you a good indication as to where the the betting focus is. Decent betting heats tend to produce decent trading heats.
  2. By having your Guardian screen sorted by start time, which is how we first approached it at the start of the blog, you can see that you can get an idea about the flow of the day and where the feature races are, where the biggest amount of money’s been matched and what impact that has on the trading market over the course of the day.

I’ll show you one last little tip here as well…

Gif showing how you can select races by location and then sort them by time

If I go in and mark these Doncaster races and then sort by start time (shown above.) You see that you get a highlighted bar basically telling you where those feature races are, this can then help you start looking at these race in the run up compared to other races. Once again giving you an idea of where to look.

This is the sort of exercise that I go through every day, every couple of hours or so before the racing starts. I’ll go through the cards, make an assessment on where the big races are with the ones that I want to trade and I’ll make a little note. Here’s some key features that I look for:

  • Markets that stand out to me that I want to trade
  • Characteristics that I’ve seen before
  • What I’ve seen from last year
  • How I expect the market to behave

After I made a little note of the things mentioned above I’ll then come and sit down at my desk for 15, 20 minutes before the first race and get underway on the day. I keep my eye on the racing all day and I won’t stop until the last race has finished!

Summary

Analysing the markets you want to trade will help you indentify key trading markets of the day and how they line up. When you analyse markets in this way you will quickly begin to understand the ‘shape’ of the trading day ahead of you.

As well as targeting individual meetings and races you may want to trade or avoid. You can quickly check to see if there are interesting markets that you recognise but also if there is an unusual level of interest in specific markets. Allowing you to investigate them further.

So if you’re interested in trying to understand what’s coming up in front of you, the markets and how they could be interesting, then this is what I suggest.

Have a plan established before the day begins. I do this setup every day before every trading session and I suggest that you should do the same as this is a great way of finding the best markets of the day.

The post Trading horse racing – Which are the best markets? appeared first on Betfair trading blog | Expert advice from Professional Betfair trade.

Horse racing tips – Win by backing the loser!

When people offer you horse racing tips, they are typically looking to recommend a back bet to you. Perhaps there is a customer offer on a qualifying bet that gives you a good chance of winning or it’s just a plain old tip? But generally speaking, most people back to find a winner. For the bet to win the horse has crossed that line first and been declared a winner. That makes sense.

But we are going flip things on their head and give you a way to win if you back the loser!

Is it really possible to get a solid profit from backing a loser on a race? Well there is a way of achieving this using Bet Angel. Today we have a quick blog post explaining a relatively easy way of winning with the loser using the dutching tool and the margin maker.

Guide to losers success!

Firstly I’m on Bet Angel’s Dutching screen and I have placed a trade on this Brighton race. To place this trade I have set my staking method ‘back with a stake’ to £100, my margin to 10% and I am using the margin maker (also see below).

I have now put my bet in and it seems the price on this one hasn’t been matched because it’s odds that aren’t available or we’re hoping to get matched in play. So I’m going to keep that over to the in-play period and we’ll see what happens from here.

As we can see, the book percentage is 90% and a great thing is the margin maker which allows you to price a book effectively with a set amount of money that you wish to make. So on this occasion, we can make 10%. By having a metric such as 10%, it allows us to manage the risk very effectively because at 10% we want to win 9 out of 10 races.

You can see there that the horse didn’t get off to great start and we’ve been matched immediately. When you look at any particular race there will be certain characteristics within the race. Whether it’s the draw, the price of the favourite in the remaining fields, the way the horses run, the way the course it’s likely to be run… that will allow you to get positions matched in play like this.

You have to be patient…

Typically, it’s not until the latter stages of the race that you’ll have to wait until you get a bet that gets matched at some particular point or another because the race is generally won in the last three furlongs or so.

You can see circled is the horse that we traded, for this horse we asked for a much, much bigger price. The horse is going to win and yet we’ve been matched at that price as the race actually got underway.

So there are a number of characteristics within a race that will determine that. By simply using the margin maker, you can actually create a position that takes advantage of the price of a horse drifting in-play.

Now, the price of a horse can drift in-play if something else comes into contention automatically if it went on to win or if it loses its race, then you’re going to get matched at a higher price anyway.

That’s why we’ve used the dutching to do this, because if we price in a certain amount of margin, when we use the margin and make it Bet Angel will put that in in a much higher price.

Efficiency using margin maker

There are 6 horses in this race, 5 of them are going to lose. So 5 of those 6 will trade at a higher price. This means the position that we’re taking is based upon the margin that we’re asking for, the price that that generates and then the chance of that getting matched in play.

This makes it a far more efficient way to achieve a great result rather than attempting to offset a bet simply because you have some defined parameters to work with. In this case, you’ve got margin of 10% and that will tell you exactly what you need to do in order to get that matched.

So let’s flip to the to the next market in Perth and do the same again. If we were going to do the same in this particular market, then we can go to dutching, back all the horses, we then select whatever stake we want to use us. (I suggest you use practice mode and a small stake if you’re doing it for real.)

The Perth market example

Then we click on the horse that you want to drift in running. In this case, if we choose Moscow menace, it only needs to go from 4.1 to 7.8. Finally we ‘place the bets’ and then keep that bet by pressing the ‘keep all’ button in the in-play period. Now that position is ready to run in the next race in Perth!

Summary

This is a great way of using the margin maker and can give you brilliant results. The best thing about this is that it clearly shows you how much upside you will get and therefore what strike rate you need to be profitable. Which is, essentially, the key to all trading.

Best of all, it can even allow you to win by backing the loser!

The post Horse racing tips – Win by backing the loser! appeared first on Betfair trading blog | Expert advice from Professional Betfair trade.

The secret to squeezing more profit from Dutching

Dutching on horse racing

We have covered Dutching before in a number of articles, so read up on those specifics if you want to learn what Dutching is, how to do and how to use the specialist tools in Bet Angel to do perform a dutch bet.

Speaking broadly, Dutching is a viable betting strategy on the betting exchanges now as the book overround is so small. A Dutch bet covers a number of selections in a sports betting market, rather than just one. This will increase your chances because you will win if any of those selections win.

Bet Angel contains an advanced Dutching calculator. This means not only can you make multiple selections with your dutch bet, but you can also set a profit target, varying the profit not just the stake on each selection. But you can drive your risk and reward by varying the amount staked or the number of selections. So it makes for a good tool and strategy.

In this article, we look specifically at a ‘hidden’ feature that will allow you to get more out of any dutching strategy you use.

If you can only back bets then where are there more columns?

Let me show you something. You’ll notice on the dutching screen written in big, bold letters is “Dutching places only BACK bets into the market.”

If we actually look in more detail at the dutching screen, the columns we have on this screen show back, lay and manual. So naturally the question of why we have a ‘lay’ column comes to if you can only place back bets into the market?

Well, the answer comes from the book percentage. In the previous example on the other article, we backed six selections for 66% of the book. We’re going to use a stake of £100 and you can see on the righthand side that our ‘predicted profit’ could return £49.

In comparison, we could say we want to return £100, so by changing the back stake for a target profit of £100 (shown in the top left box below), you can see it says we need a total stake of £200. So we would make £100 if any one of these six horses go on to win this race, by having a stake of £200 into the market.

If I back at the current lay price on these selections, you can see in the image below that our total stake goes down.

Our plan is to place back bets in the market, but we’re going to back at the current lay price. This doesn’t place a lay bet, it still places a back bet, but at the current lay price. The current lay price is usually one tick up at decimal odds, but each tick adds extra profit or reduces your stake when dutching.

Now, those are going to be unmatched bets and naturally you need those bets to get filled. There are a number of ways of doing that, but essentially what you’re doing is you’re getting a better value bet by backing at the current lay price and asking for a price within the market.

If we go to use manual, you could actually ask for another price that doesn’t exist at this particular moment, somewhere slightly further out from the money.

Example of using manual on the favourite

But by backing at the current lay price, you squeeze that little bit of extra margin out of the book, which will help you overcome the commission that you pay. I have hinted at this practice in the past, discussing ways that dutching can help you to overcome some of the commission issues and this is one way to do so.

By basically taking a chunk of the book and asking for the price within the market, you’re actually creating a little bit more value in it.

So that will come in two forms, firstly it will come in either a lower stake, if you’re backing for a fixed target profit. Then if we look at the back with a stake off, in other words, if we’re using a fixed stake rather than looking for a target profit then you’ll notice that the return that you get, the predicted profit column, that number goes up.

So whichever way you do it, you’re going to get slightly more money out of that particular position.

So why dutch?

Dutching is a good way of aggregating risk, but also achieving a better chance of a payoff, simply by offering bets to the market. Now, those will be unmatched bets when they reach the market, but you’ll find that overall that makes a huge difference because you a tiny edge here as you start to amplify over many, many markets which becomes a huge edge for you after thousands of markets!

Dutching is placing back bets into the market, but you can back at the current back price, you can back at the current lay price and you could back at prices that you nominate, that’s a good way of getting extra value from it.

But when you are dutching, you should think about how much of the field you cover. Are you covering just one little part of the field? Because then essentially your Dutch bet becomes an outright bet on that favourite or this small part of the field, it doesn’t deliver much value to you. You might as well just bet the favourite!

But obviously one of the great things about dutching is that you can actually back any one of ‘x’ number of runners. So here we’re expanding that list to quite a large number of runners and we’re giving ourself the capacity to be able to profit if any of those come in, which you can’t do on much smaller fields.

So there you go!

I hope that gave you a little further exploration into the dutching side of things. I hope that this has given you a bit of a grip on the sort of stuff that you can do and how you have use dutching.

The post The secret to squeezing more profit from Dutching appeared first on Betfair trading blog | Expert advice from Professional Betfair trade.

Automation strategies – Merging your best Betfair bots

Most Betfair automation has quite a simple starting point. You build something that performs a simple function then you tweak it, add things, create new ideas and before long you have a suite of Betfair bots. Adding more automated trading, whether it is partial or full automation, will allow you to become a better Betfair trader or save time by automating your betting strategies.

Users of Bet Angel’s Advanced Automation may often find themselves needing to duplicate or re-create similar rules over and over again for each automation file they make. Horse racing markets tend to have defined endpoints and most Betfair trading strategies share some key elements which are duplicated.

What you may not be aware of is the Bet Angel Rules Editor already contains a ‘copy’ button on the top ribbon of the rules editor that allows you to quickly and easily copy rules from one file to another. This allows you to easily merge the best bits of your automation into a new rules file.

Putting it into Practice

A good example to demonstrate this would be to take the ‘Close Trade if in Loss for 10 seconds’ automation rule from the shared files library. That automated bot file is made up of 3 rule types with signals linking each one.

Adding a set of rules like this to a new automation file you create would normally take a few minutes (even longer if you have to keep flicking back and forth copying how it’s set up). But with Bet Angels ‘Rule Copy’ feature any existing rule including all its parameters, conditions signal and stored values etc can be copied from one automation file to another in a matter of seconds and with just a few clicks of your mouse.

So, for this example, I’m going to take the ‘Directional Scalping Pre-Off’ automation file also from the shared files section on the forum and I’m going to add rules from the ‘Close if in loss For Over 10sec’ to it.

To get Started select the Automation file you want to add your existing rules too then click on ‘Edit Rules File’ just to the right of this.

You will now see the familiar ‘Rules Editor Window’. On the top border of this window click the icon at the far right – this will open another similar window where you can select the source automation file you want to copy your rule/s from.

All you need to do is select the rule/s you wish to copy into your destination file. You can select as many of the rules from this source file as you wish (for this example I need all 3 of them), once the required rules are highlighted just click one of the three bottom buttons to copy them across. In the image bove I choose to ‘Add rules to End’ so they will appear at the bottom of my exsisting automation file I am copying them to.

And its as simple as that….. the source window can now be closed and all the rules selected will of been added to your current automation file – just remember to save (by clicking the disc icon in the upper right) and its ready to begin using.


If you don’t have many of your own rules but still want to try this out have a look at the shared files section on the forum, there are over 150 Ready-Made files you can download for free and using this simple technique you can combine rules from different files with just a few clicks.

If you don’t have a copy of Bet Angel just download a free trial here. One Bet Angel license allows you to install to an unlimited number of computers if you wish.

Enjoy!

Video Tutorial

The post Automation strategies – Merging your best Betfair bots appeared first on Betfair trading blog | Expert advice from Professional Betfair trade.